Crap. Historical stats won again. I was so hoping that the Orioles would upset the Yanks. Actually, it is a real shame: the O's were the 2nd hottest team in the playoffs. They might have gotten lucky early in the season, but they really were a good team at the end of the eyar.
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Playoff Prediction Thread
Started By fromthemitten, Oct 05 2012 11:35 PM
21 replies to this topic
#17
DocPeterWimsey
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Bleacher Bum
Posted 13 October 2012 - 07:28 AM
Well, crack out those coins! I have not found any pattern to the LCS outcomes. September Run Differential, which works so well for the LDS, does not seem to work here. Of course, there are a couple of big caveats. One, we have half the sample size. Two, the tendency of "hot" teams to win the LDS means that we have a lot of LCS between.... (wait for it....) two hot teams! It could be that once you get to a certain level of "hot," then it is all the same.
At this point, I'm going to stick with September RD because it's all the same insofar as I can see! I.e., we're getting a rematch of the 1951 WS.
At this point, I'm going to stick with September RD because it's all the same insofar as I can see! I.e., we're getting a rematch of the 1951 WS.
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!
#18
Cubbie Blues
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The Engineer
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Posted 15 October 2012 - 06:43 AM
Kind of like the difference between Kate Upton and Adriana Limathe tendency of "hot" teams to win the LDS means that we have a lot of LCS between.... (wait for it....) two hot teams! It could be that once you get to a certain level of "hot," then it is all the same.
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, it's the fat that makes you look fat." -Al Bundy
#19
DocPeterWimsey
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Bleacher Bum
Posted 18 October 2012 - 06:07 PM
Curse that coin! Seriously, if there is a rhyme or reason to who wins the LCS, then I have not figured it out at all.
Of course, what gets forgotten in a 4-game sweep like this is that 3 of the 4 games were really close and could have gone either way. Still, I'm pleased iwth the outcome: me disliketh the Yankees greatly!
Of course, what gets forgotten in a 4-game sweep like this is that 3 of the 4 games were really close and could have gone either way. Still, I'm pleased iwth the outcome: me disliketh the Yankees greatly!
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!
#20
Tommy
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Posted 18 October 2012 - 06:17 PM
Still, I'm pleased iwth the outcome: me disliketh the Yankees greatly!
You can say that again, Doc!
And no shame in not predicting the LCS. You nailed the play in series! You can sleep good at night, my friend!
- diehard fanclub member #002
#22
DocPeterWimsey
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Posted 23 October 2012 - 10:48 AM
These two LCS are a good example of how misleading the W-L (or games played) can be. The Tigers swept: but the only game that they won handily was the last game. It could easily have been Yanks 3-1 after 4 games. The Giants "squeaked" by the Cards; however, the Giants handily won 4 games and almost won 2 others, while the Cards handily won 1. In a lot of ways, this series was a lot less close than it seemed.
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!
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