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Playoff Prediction Thread


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26 replies to this topic

#16 DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 06:13 PM

Crap. Historical stats won again. I was so hoping that the Orioles would upset the Yanks. Actually, it is a real shame: the O's were the 2nd hottest team in the playoffs. They might have gotten lucky early in the season, but they really were a good team at the end of the eyar.
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!

#17 DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 07:28 AM

Well, crack out those coins! I have not found any pattern to the LCS outcomes. September Run Differential, which works so well for the LDS, does not seem to work here. Of course, there are a couple of big caveats. One, we have half the sample size. Two, the tendency of "hot" teams to win the LDS means that we have a lot of LCS between.... (wait for it....) two hot teams! It could be that once you get to a certain level of "hot," then it is all the same.

At this point, I'm going to stick with September RD because it's all the same insofar as I can see! I.e., we're getting a rematch of the 1951 WS.
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!

#18 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 06:43 AM

the tendency of "hot" teams to win the LDS means that we have a lot of LCS between.... (wait for it....) two hot teams! It could be that once you get to a certain level of "hot," then it is all the same.

Kind of like the difference between Kate Upton and Adriana Lima

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#19 DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 06:07 PM

Curse that coin! Seriously, if there is a rhyme or reason to who wins the LCS, then I have not figured it out at all.

Of course, what gets forgotten in a 4-game sweep like this is that 3 of the 4 games were really close and could have gone either way. Still, I'm pleased iwth the outcome: me disliketh the Yankees greatly!
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!

#20 Tommy

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 06:17 PM

Still, I'm pleased iwth the outcome: me disliketh the Yankees greatly!


You can say that again, Doc!

And no shame in not predicting the LCS. You nailed the play in series! You can sleep good at night, my friend!
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#21 fromthemitten

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 07:08 PM

lol I was 0-4 good thing I don't gamble (other than when I'm really drunk and play club keno at the bar)

#22 DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 10:48 AM

These two LCS are a good example of how misleading the W-L (or games played) can be. The Tigers swept: but the only game that they won handily was the last game. It could easily have been Yanks 3-1 after 4 games. The Giants "squeaked" by the Cards; however, the Giants handily won 4 games and almost won 2 others, while the Cards handily won 1. In a lot of ways, this series was a lot less close than it seemed.
Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!

#23 DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 06:42 PM

Huh, nobody rebooted this for 2013 yet!

 

Well, now that we've got our 8 "real" playoff teams, my predictions are:

 

Cards over Pirates

Braves over Dodgers

Sox over Rays

A's over Tigers.

 

In each case, I'm betting on the team with the better run-differential in September to win.  (Those teams are 34-14 over the last 12 years.)


Gods don't play dice with the universe, they are the dice of the universe: our job is to figure out how many sides and dice!

#24 hansman1982

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 07:05 PM

 

the tendency of "hot" teams to win the LDS means that we have a lot of LCS between.... (wait for it....) two hot teams! It could be that once you get to a certain level of "hot," then it is all the same.

Kind of like the difference between Kate Upton and Adriana Lima

 

 

Ummm...Adriana Lima every time.  Dumbass.



#25 hansman1982

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 07:07 PM

Huh, nobody rebooted this for 2013 yet!

 

Well, now that we've got our 8 "real" playoff teams, my predictions are:

 

Cards over Pirates

Braves over Dodgers

Sox over Rays

A's over Tigers.

 

In each case, I'm betting on the team with the better run-differential in September to win.  (Those teams are 34-14 over the last 12 years.)

 

A Cards/Braves NLDS would become a black hole of smarmy, know-it-all, self-righteous fandom that might just destroy the universe.

 

But, the only difference for me is Tigers over A's.



#26 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 06:17 AM

 

 

the tendency of "hot" teams to win the LDS means that we have a lot of LCS between.... (wait for it....) two hot teams! It could be that once you get to a certain level of "hot," then it is all the same.

Kind of like the difference between Kate Upton and Adriana Lima

Ummm...Adriana Lima every time.  Dumbass.

Wow, no wonder I don't remember making that comment. It was from 2012.


"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, it's the fat that makes you look fat." - Al Bundy

 

"Ow" - Dylan Bundy


#27 fromthemitten

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Posted 07 October 2013 - 12:09 PM

Pirates over Cardinals

Braves over Dodgers

Rays over Sox

Tigers over As

 

Pirates over Braves

Tigers over Rays

 

Tigers over Pirates

 

I went by belly fire instead of sabermetrics (except TWTW)






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