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Shohei Otani


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23 replies to this topic

#1 Stinky Pete

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 05:45 PM

Japanese High Schooler, 6'4 18 years old hitting 99- 100. Assuming that's mph not kph.

http://www.rantsport...apanese-phenom/

http://www.mlbtrader...-japan-mlb.html

No posting as he has no Japanese contract. He is deciding between NPB and MLB. I assume he counts against an MLB's foreign spending allowance. And where would the Cubs spending allowance be?

#2 Luke

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 06:28 PM

I think he would count against the IFA cap since he does not pitch professionally in Japan now. But I don't think the Cubs can land him. They would have, if I remember right, somewhere around $100k to $200k at most to offer before incurring the penalties, and given the size of the pool for next season, I don't want to be incurring the penalties now.

If the Cubs were in the playoffs, though, I'd be tempted to blow the doors off the budget with a huge offer and just deal with the repercussions.

#3 Stinky Pete

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 08:04 PM

And when does that pool "reset"?

#4 Cubsin

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 12:41 AM

The pool resets on or about July 1, 2013. Next year, the pools will depend on where the teams finished in the 2012 regular season. The Cubs should have in the neighborhood of $4.5 million in their pool, while the Astros will have around $4.6 million. So, if he's willing to wait until July to sign, the Cubs could make a generous offer. If he decides to sign with an MLB team, he'd be well advised to wait until July. I doubt that there's even one franchise with $1.0 million left in there current bonus pool.

#5 Stinky Pete

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 07:55 AM

Awesome. Thanks, guys!

#6 Brett

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 01:53 PM

He'd be a fool not to wait until next July to sign - almost every team's pool is pretty much spent up for this year.

#7 King Jeff

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 07:28 PM

October 25th is the NPB draft, so I think he needs to decide before then. In interviews he's given, it seems like he's coming stateside. Unfortunately, the Cubs aren't one of the teams he's met with so far.

#8 Luke

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 07:17 PM

He'd be a fool not to wait until next July to sign - almost every team's pool is pretty much spent up for this year.


If I remember right, the penalty for going over the pool amount is that you get capped at $250,000 per contract for the next year or so on IFAs. That would be a nasty penalty for the Cubs who will have they money to compete for multiple elite players, but for a team like the Yankees who are likely to be shopping in the $250k aisle anyway, that may not be a bad thing. I'd not shocked if some team decides to eat the penalties and hands over a gigantic contract.

If he really wants to maximize his value, though, he'll wait until July if at all possible.

#9 Cubsin

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 08:37 PM

The projected pools for IFA's range from $4.3 million (Astros) to $1.3 million (World Series winner). These numbers will be adjusted upward based on the increase In MLB revenue, and don't include the additional 4.999% that can be added without incurring penalties. The penalties are severe - a very small pool for one year if you exceed your pool by 5%, and a very small pool for two years if you exceed by 10%. In addition, there's a tax on the overage.

None of the teams went over 105% in the Rule 4 draft, and I don't believe anyone has gone over it in the IFA draft. The penalties are severe enough that I doubt that anyone ever will.

#10 Tommy

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 10:01 PM

Cubsin - you know way too much stuff!
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#11 Luke

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Posted 14 October 2012 - 04:34 PM

The penalties are severe - a very small pool for one year if you exceed your pool by 5%, and a very small pool for two years if you exceed by 10%. In addition, there's a tax on the overage.


This is not quite accurate. The size of the pool never changes. What does change is the maximum contract that can be given to any one player. From Baseball America:

"
• Teams that go 0-5 percent over will pay a 75 percent tax on the overage.
• Teams that go 5-10 percent over will pay the 75 percent tax on the overage and won't be able to sign more than one player for a bonus of more than $500,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
• Teams that go 10-15 percent over will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won't be able to sign any player for a bonus of more than $500,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
• Teams that go 15 percent or more over will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won't be able to sign any player for a bonus of more than $250,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
"

Say the Yankees (1) win the World Series and (2) give Otani $15 million. Their total IFA budget for 2013-2014 will still be the World Series winner pool of ~$1.3 million. That doesn't change.

However, instead of dividing up that pool however they like, they will only be allowed to give up to $250,000 to any one player. They will be forced out of the bidding for players in, for instance, the $500,000 - $1 million bracket. They will also pay a ~$15 million tax on Otani's contract, but from a 2013 perspective that's fairly irrelevant.

That's why I think a team who is going to have a smaller pool amount might be willing to massively exceed their pool number for the right guy/guys. With a pool of only $1.3 million, they would be better off landing multiple players in the $200k range than banking everything on one guy in the $1 million range.

For a team like the Cubs, that changes. They can sign three guys in the $1 million range and still have room to spare. The per-player restrictions would be much more detrimental.

It would be a right team, right player, right time situation for a team to be willing to break their IFA pool, but the penalties for doing so are no where near remotely close to being as crushing as the penalties for similar behavior in the draft.

#12 Fearbobafett

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 10:56 AM

Darvish has the same decision to make and everyone thought he was originally leaning to coming over. At that time i read some arcticles from over that the pressure he is facing to sign with a team in Japan is tremendous. the real question is how his family feels on the subject also, ie.e are they also adding pressure to stay.

it is going to be an interesting case to keep an eye on because depending on how it turns out contract wise if he comes over, will depend on if other players his age are going to be willing to make the jump.

#13 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 11:11 AM

The real payday would be a scenario where he works out a deal with a Japanese team to sign him and post him after a couple of years. The team would get a big posting fee and Otani would stand to get a $20-40M contract (just as Darvish was projected). He isn't going to be in the majors for the first few years anyway. He can start his development oversees and then come over and cash in. This has been the only loophole in the system I have been able to find.

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#14 Tommy

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 11:12 AM

The real payday would be a scenario where he works out a deal with a Japanese team to sign him and post him after a couple of years. The team would get a big posting fee and Otani would stand to get a $20-40M contract (just as Darvish was projected). He isn't going to be in the majors for the first few years anyway. He can start his development oversees and then come over and cash in. This has been the only loophole in the system I have been able to find.


and that is why MLB needs to do something about the arrangement with Japanese baseball. That type of money is insanity!
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#15 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 11:33 AM


The real payday would be a scenario where he works out a deal with a Japanese team to sign him and post him after a couple of years. The team would get a big posting fee and Otani would stand to get a $20-40M contract (just as Darvish was projected). He isn't going to be in the majors for the first few years anyway. He can start his development oversees and then come over and cash in. This has been the only loophole in the system I have been able to find.


and that is why MLB needs to do something about the arrangement with Japanese baseball. That type of money is insanity!

Actually, I don't. The Cubs are one of a hand full of teams that has the cash to be able to sign one of these type of players from Japan. I would much rather be fighting against 5 other teams for a player than the whole MLB.

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