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Shohei Otani


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23 replies to this topic

#16 Tommy

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 04:26 PM

Actually, I don't. The Cubs are one of a hand full of teams that has the cash to be able to sign one of these type of players from Japan. I would much rather be fighting against 5 other teams for a player than the whole MLB.


I can see your reasoning there, but I still believe that all teams (even the Yankees) operate within a budget, and I think the posting system just sets up teams for gross overspending on players that have a high probability of not living up to their contracts. I'd much rather see the Cubs use the type of money that seems to be spent on these deals on accomplished veteran free agents that have already proven themselves in MLB.

If nothing else, the success rate has been pretty abysmal. Other than Suzuki and this year, Darvish, I can't think of any real great signings from the posting process. In fairness, if you asked me to name any more, it would be a very short list.

At the very least, I don't believe that we should be paying multi-million dollar deals to the Japanese league just to talk to these players. If we're going to have a silent bid for the services of the player, that's one thing. A silent bid to be able to negotiate with the player is just plain stupid. A flat fee to do so would make much more sense.
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#17 King Jeff

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 06:04 PM

The real payday would be a scenario where he works out a deal with a Japanese team to sign him and post him after a couple of years. The team would get a big posting fee and Otani would stand to get a $20-40M contract (just as Darvish was projected). He isn't going to be in the majors for the first few years anyway. He can start his development oversees and then come over and cash in. This has been the only loophole in the system I have been able to find.

I think once he joins the Japanese pro league, he has to stay over there for 7 or 8 years before he can come to the states without facing the "lifetime ban" from Japanese baseball. I know there have been a couple of exceptions, but like was stated earlier, there is huge pressure for him to stay, and if he doesn't, he might not be welcome back.

#18 King Jeff

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 06:08 PM


Actually, I don't. The Cubs are one of a hand full of teams that has the cash to be able to sign one of these type of players from Japan. I would much rather be fighting against 5 other teams for a player than the whole MLB.


I can see your reasoning there, but I still believe that all teams (even the Yankees) operate within a budget, and I think the posting system just sets up teams for gross overspending on players that have a high probability of not living up to their contracts. I'd much rather see the Cubs use the type of money that seems to be spent on these deals on accomplished veteran free agents that have already proven themselves in MLB.

If nothing else, the success rate has been pretty abysmal. Other than Suzuki and this year, Darvish, I can't think of any real great signings from the posting process. In fairness, if you asked me to name any more, it would be a very short list.

At the very least, I don't believe that we should be paying multi-million dollar deals to the Japanese league just to talk to these players. If we're going to have a silent bid for the services of the player, that's one thing. A silent bid to be able to negotiate with the player is just plain stupid. A flat fee to do so would make much more sense.

You can blame Alfonso Soriano, of all people, for the posting system, along with Hideo Nomo. Both were under contract with NPB and found loopholes to come over, thus causing the league to come up with more restrictive contracts.

I think Ichiro is probably the only one who has been worth the posting fee so far. Maybe Darvish will continue to thrive, but only time will tell.

#19 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 06:50 AM


The real payday would be a scenario where he works out a deal with a Japanese team to sign him and post him after a couple of years. The team would get a big posting fee and Otani would stand to get a $20-40M contract (just as Darvish was projected). He isn't going to be in the majors for the first few years anyway. He can start his development oversees and then come over and cash in. This has been the only loophole in the system I have been able to find.

I think once he joins the Japanese pro league, he has to stay over there for 7 or 8 years before he can come to the states without facing the "lifetime ban" from Japanese baseball. I know there have been a couple of exceptions, but like was stated earlier, there is huge pressure for him to stay, and if he doesn't, he might not be welcome back.

I have found no reference of the 7-8 years. I only found that the player has to ask permission to be posted. When Soriano came over using a loophole the rules were changed. The reason your list is so short is that only 10 players have played in the MLB using the posting system and 13 have signed contracts (minor or major league deals). Aoki isn't doing too bad either.

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#20 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 18 October 2012 - 07:00 AM



Actually, I don't. The Cubs are one of a hand full of teams that has the cash to be able to sign one of these type of players from Japan. I would much rather be fighting against 5 other teams for a player than the whole MLB.


I can see your reasoning there, but I still believe that all teams (even the Yankees) operate within a budget, and I think the posting system just sets up teams for gross overspending on players that have a high probability of not living up to their contracts. I'd much rather see the Cubs use the type of money that seems to be spent on these deals on accomplished veteran free agents that have already proven themselves in MLB.

If nothing else, the success rate has been pretty abysmal. Other than Suzuki and this year, Darvish, I can't think of any real great signings from the posting process. In fairness, if you asked me to name any more, it would be a very short list.

At the very least, I don't believe that we should be paying multi-million dollar deals to the Japanese league just to talk to these players. If we're going to have a silent bid for the services of the player, that's one thing. A silent bid to be able to negotiate with the player is just plain stupid. A flat fee to do so would make much more sense.

You can blame Alfonso Soriano, of all people, for the posting system, along with Hideo Nomo. Both were under contract with NPB and found loopholes to come over, thus causing the league to come up with more restrictive contracts.

I think Ichiro is probably the only one who has been worth the posting fee so far. Maybe Darvish will continue to thrive, but only time will tell.

Since the beginning of the posting system, the average posting has been $12.8M. That number is heavily skewed by two, Darvish and Matsuzaka at $51.7 & $51.1M respectively. If you took those two out the average is $5.8M (including Ichiro). I don't think $6M is all that high. Look at the IFA contracts that were signed in the last year. They were quite a bit higher than that. With all that being said, MLB is trying to do away with the exclusive posting.

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#21 Starwin Bastro

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 11:24 AM

http://www.npbtracke...to-draft-otani/ "If Nippon Ham (or any other NPB team) drafts Otani, they will have the right to sign him until the end of March 2013. The MLB and NPB working agreement prohibits one league from signing players who are under contract with a team from the other league, so at a minimum being selected in the draft would delay Otani signing with an MLB club for several months."
This would definitely enhance the cubs chances and interest in signing him. Otani would then only have to wait 3 months to receive a bigger payday when the international signing period restarts and pools reset. I guess we should hope Nippon drafts him

#22 Luke

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 08:58 PM

If that scenario does play out... he gets drafted, refuses to sign, and comes to the US with the July 2013 signing class, then I really like the Cubs' chances. They may not land him, but if they wanted him, I think they would be among the favorites.

But I would be surprised if the Dodgers or the Yankees don't sign him first. The Yankees, in particular, would not be hurt all that badly by that the penalties for breaking their budget.

#23 Starwin Bastro

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 08:38 AM

Nippon did end up drafting Otani. MLB and Nippon could come to an agreement to let him come to the states earlier than next March, but the money obviously would have to be right for Nippon and Otani

#24 King Jeff

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Posted 26 October 2012 - 07:13 AM

That's a best case scenario come true for the Cubs. From what I get, if he has to wait until July, the Cubs will have the second highest pool of money to offer this guy without penalty. Good find Starwin, awesome name.




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