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Alfonso Soriano's market value, here's why:


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14 replies to this topic

#1 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 02:10 PM

With the Tigers (and another potential trade partner gone) signing Torii Hunter, 37, to a 2 year, $26M deal, the similar player in the similar position may have given GMs the general foundation about what they should pay if they were to acquire Alfonso Soriano.

140G, 584PA, 167H, 16HR, 81R, 92RBI, 9SB, 6.5BB%, 22.8K%, .139ISO, .389BABIP, .313/.365/.451/.816, 10.4Fld, 4.8BsR, 5.3WAR - Torii Hunter 2012

151G, 615PA, 147H, 32HR, 68R, 108RBI, 6SB, 7.2BB%, 24.9K%, .237ISO, .303BABIP, .262/.322/.499/.821, 11.8Fld, -2.2BsR, 4.0WAR - Alfonso Soriano 2012

HR/PA - 2.7% Torii Hunter
HR/PA - 5.2% Alfonso Soriano

Even though Hunter's batted balls in play was a career high, I believe that stat alone could be offset by Soriano's boost in numbers this past year. Yes, I am suggesting they are worth about the same amount on the open market. Since the Tigers set that market at $13M per on 2 years, that means the Cubs should eat at least $5M per year in any deal for Soriano, even more so because we'll be acquiring prospects. You must also factor in the currently thin market for aging outfielders who do not wish to DH or play on turf.

So, the best fit right now for Soriano (for teams who have payroll flexibilty) would be on the Philadelphia Phillies or the Cincinnati Reds, with the Washington Nationals and Seattle Mariners receiving honorable mentions. If the Nationals cannot re-sign Adam LaRoche to 1B, Michael Morse gets his spot back there and then Soriano becomes an obvious upgrade over Roger Bernadina. If The Reds cannot re-sign Ryan Ludwick, there is a gaping hole in LF (Chris Heisey needs more time).

You have to take into consideration the no-trade-clause and I believe Soriano accepts deals to only Washington or Cincinnati, where they are competitive now. The short porch that is the Great American Ballpark would be great for his bat. His career numbers at both parks are actually really good. I believe he's comfortable at both places and the strides he has taken with the defensive training he's received this past year, make a viable case for a non-DH role.

Don't be surprised if the Cubs decide it's best to swallow half of Soriano's contract and only acquire two, lower top-twenty prospects from a team's farm system. Comparable outfielders on the market with less power all want a 3rd year on a new contract (i.e. Cody Ross wants $25M over 3 years, Ryan Ludwick wants $18-22 over 3 years). General managers will have to decide whether or not that 3rd year is worth it, or if trading with the Cubs could help them in both the long and short terms.

#2 King Jeff

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 04:52 PM

I still think Baltimore is the best possible fit. They need a left fielder and they need a dh. Buck Showalter managed Soriano for two seasons in Texas, and Soriano might be more open to going to Baltimore this year since they have proven competitive and they have an opening that would allow him to play some outfield.

#3 Tommy

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 05:20 PM

Nice comparison, Mike! I hadn't considered that, but you bring up some good points. I hope you're right, but something tells me that Soriano wouldn't accept a trade to Cincy or Philly. I get the feeling his list of acceptable teams is very, very short. Hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if L.A. and N.Y. were about the only destinations he would be willing to accept.

Let's hope we get an opportunity to find out.

Nice write up, though!
- diehard fanclub member #002

#4 Cubs Dude

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 10:14 AM

Good write up! The team i think is the best fit for Soriano is Tampa Bay. He could still play a lot of outfield, but dh a couple times a week. The Rays have obviously could use help offensively. And If they would have become a buyer last year instead of a seller and took on Sori, I have a feeling they would have represented the AL in the World Series. But they're never buyers, so I guess it doesn't matter... And Sori probably wouldn't have wanted to go there either. But the Rays and Soriano are perfect for each other imo.

#5 auggie1955

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:30 AM

I thought teams would be be showing a lot of interest in Soriano this off season, but up to this point we haven't heard of anything. I guess once Josh Hamilton signs then rumors about Soriano may start up. I agree with Bleacher Bum that the Orioles seem like a good fit to me.

#6 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 01:45 PM

The reasons I excluded teams in my report, were:

1) reports that possible trades were nixed by saying he would exercise his no trade clause. Orioles and Giants both had at one point a trade in place that was blocked last year.
2) turf vs. grass - an aging outfielder does not want to play on turf, Tampa has turf.
3) salty air - again with the knees, okay, we get it. No coast teams near the ocean.

#7 Cubs Dude

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:43 PM

The thing is there are a lot of teams that could use Soriano, but he has that damn NTC. So we can sit here all day and talk about it, but Sori could care less about winning. He's all about chilling in Wrigleville, pimping chicks, and isn't going anywhere. Sorry, I am not mad at you guys I am mad at the situation. #hatenotradeclauses

#8 auggie1955

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 04:06 PM

There were rumors that the Yankees wanted to move Brett Gardner to CF. They then could move Curtis Granderson to RF. That would open up LF for Soriano. I'm sure Soriano would be happy going back to NY. This year there were a lot of OFs on the FA market. Hamilton, B.J. Upton, and Bourn are all still out there.

#9 Cubs Dude

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 04:18 PM

If the Yankees came calling we may get lucky. Cause like I am pretty sure that is one of the few places he'd consider.

#10 TheRiot2

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 05:48 PM

I thought teams would be be showing a lot of interest in Soriano this off season, but up to this point we haven't heard of anything. I guess once Josh Hamilton signs then rumors about Soriano may start up. I agree with Bleacher Bum that the Orioles seem like a good fit to me.



Hi Bitt: This one of the 3 musketeers,where's Rocky, is that's the ? Yes and I agree Sori to the O's works for me.That would really throw the AL East into a mad scramble.I don't know if the O's have anything of worth to send back our way ?

#11 fromthemitten

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:30 PM

the issue is there's a lot of pretty good outfielders out there in the market so we're gonna have to wait for that to clear up before talk about acquiring Soriano resumes. I wouldn't be surprised if Swisher, Hamilton, Bourn, and Upton receive stupid money that makes Sori a more appealing option for mid-market teams.

#12 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 05:51 PM

Time for an update:

The Braves OF: LF Martin Prado / CF B.J. Upton / RF Jason Heyward... Reed Johnson / Jose Costanza
The Nationals OF: LF Bryce Harper / CF Denard Span / RF Jayson Werth... Tyler Moore / Roger Bernadina
The Redlegs OF: LF Ryan Ludwick / CF Jay Bruce / RF Shin-Soo Choo... Chris Heisey / Xavier Paul
The Orioles OF: LF Nate McClouth / CF Adam Jones / RF Nick Markakis... Nolan Reimold / Xavier Avery
The Rays OF: LF Wil Myers / CF Desmond Jennings / RF Ben Zobrist... Matt Joyce / Sam Fuld

Soriano would obviously be an upgrade in LF for the Braves (Prado moves to 2B or 3B) and the Orioles need an OF or DH.

Soriano + cash to the Braves for Randall Delgado would be on par for how things usually work out for us.

If the Rays plan on starting Wil Myers in LF, their lineup should be set...

CF Desmond Jennings
RF Ben Zobrist
3B Evan Longoria
DH Matt Joyce
LF Wil Myers
1B James Loney
2B Ryan Roberts
C Jose Molina
SS Yunel Escobar

I think the Braves are the only market for Soriano right now, unless the Indians think they can be competitive this year. This hurts us tremendously. I think we have to keep him on the field in Cubbie Blue and maybe some teams catch the injury bug and will make him more attractive later on in the season.

#13 fromthemitten

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 05:15 AM

The Rays could move Zorbist to 2nd base where he'd provide more offensive value and rotate Corner OF/DH with Myers and Joyce

One dark horse candidate that nobody's been talking about really is the Stankees. Think about it: George Steinbrenner is no longer around to throw money at free agents like a frat boy throwing beaded necklaces at Mardi Gras. Soriano would make logical sense if the Cubs were willing to eat a majority of his salary and he could replace Swisher/Jones/Ibanez in the lineup. They have a pretty good catching prospect in Gary Sanchez in A-ball who is blocked by Austin Romine.

#14 Voice of reason

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 11:02 AM

You make total sense, bleacher hero.

The problem is the cubs don't have a left fielder in the minors waiting to replace soriano. If they trade soriano and plug in shierholtz they will lose even more games next year as they did this year.

It's a catch 22!

They might as well keep soriano! They're going to eat so much of his salary anyhow and there is no one in the minors to replace his bat.

Take soriano out of that line up and it is probably the worst cubs offensive line up ever!!!!

#15 fromthemitten

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 06:40 PM

There are some okay outfielders still on the market. Some are injury prone (Grady Sizemore), some are over the hill (Carlos Lee), other were ineffective/a pain in the ass (Luke Scott), but all of these could accept a one year deal and a chance to be an everyday player. They could give Dave Sappelt a chance to see if he's an everyday player until BJax is ready to be called up. A Sappelt-DeJesus-Scheirholz (sp?) outfield would be one of the worst in the Majors, but considering they're not going to contend this year anyway it makes sense. They could also move Vitters, an underwhelming defender at 3rd, to a corner OF spot. That would obviously take a few months to happen while he acclimates himself to the new position at AAA.

Or we could make Campana our everyday CF lolololoool




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