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Mike Trout is the AL MVP, here's why:


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4 replies to this topic

#1 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 04:22 PM

I (and everyone else) have noticed the talk and bickering back and forth about who deserves the MVP title. Who is better? Who is better for their team? What does the honor fundamentally recognize? It is easy to see why so many people are so passionate about a close race this year. I would say, "here's my two cents," but I'd like to think I put more worth into my statements.

We can all agree that Mike Trout is better defensively than Miguel Cabrera. With 78 defensive plays made "out of zone" from 262 total plays (30%), compared to 29 defensive plays made "out of zone" out from 197 (15%) ... you could say that Cabrera is half the defensive player Trout is from that stat alone. If you use those stats to translate the concept into the "real world", you would say that Trout had the opportunity to utilize that ability only 75% in one season (when being compared to Cabrera).

Weighted Percent of Offensive Productivity is something that takes everything into consideration when a batter steps into the box and then what he does on base without prejudice from the lineup around him. The "inning-killing" ground ball double play has more weight, because you are creating two outs in one plate appearance. That, along with batting average, successful base-stealing, sacrifice flys/hits, and slugging percentage all measure the potential success rate.

Mike Trout in 2012:
559 AB, 7 GDP (x2) + 5 CS + 7 SF + 7 SFH = 33 Outs + 377 Outs = 410.
639 PA - 410 = 229. 229/639 = .385 + .564 (SLG) + (SB/2/PA) / 2 = .494
Weighted Percent of Offensive Productivity is .494

Miguel Cabrera in 2012:
622 AB, 28 GDP (x2) + 1 CS + 6 SF = 63 Outs + 417 Outs = 480.
697 PA - 480 = 217. 217/697 = .311 + .606 (SLG) + (SB/2/PA) / 2 = .460
Weighted Percent of Offensive Productivity is .460

On offense alone, Mike Trout wins this argument.
--------------------------------------------------------------

Compare those to Alfonso Soriano in 2012:
561 AB, 18 GDP (x2) + 2 CS + 3 SF = 41 Outs + 414 Outs = 455.
615 PA - 455 = 160. 160/615 = .260 + .499 (SLG) + (SB/2/PA) / 2 = .382
Weighted Percent of Offensive Productivity is .382

Compare to Tony Campana in 2012:
174 AB, 0 GDP + 3 CS, + 7 SFH = 10 Outs + 128 Outs = 138.
192 PA - 138 = 54. 54/192 = .281 + .299 (SLG) + (SB/2/PA) / 2 = .329
Weighted Percent of Offensive Productivity is .329

Scale w/examples (2012) for perspective:
10 = .500 - .480 - Mike Trout (.494), Ryan Braun (.482)

09 = .479 - .459 - Giancarlo Stanton (.476), Andrew McCutchen (.462), Miguel Cabrera (.460)

08 = .458 - .438 - Josh Hamilton (.451), Buster Posey & Adrian Beltre (.447), Prince Fielder (.442), Melky Cabrera (.438)

07 = .437 - .417 - Robinson Cano (.433), Chase Headley (.429), Aramis Ramirez (.427), Yadier Molina (.421), Aaron Hill (.420), Ryan Ludwick (.418), David Wright (.417)

06 = .416 - .396 - Matt Holiday (.413), Austin Jackson (.410), Nick Swisher, Jason Heyward, & Ben Zobrist (.402), Adam Jones (.399), Ian Desmond & Bryce Harper (.396)

05 = .395 - .375 - Joe Mauer (.395), Alex Gordon (.392), Miguel Montero (.388), Dustin Pedroia (.387), Angel Pagan & Torii Hunter (.385), Dave Sappelt (.384), Anthony Rizzo (.383), Alfonso Soriano (.382)

04 = .374 - .354 - Scott Hairston (.374), Martin Prado (.373), Michael Bourn (.372), Bryan LaHair (.371), Jeff Keppinger (.370), Coco Crisp (.367), Jimmy Rollins & Josh Reddick (.365), B.J. Upton (.363), Dioner Navarro & Lonnie Chisenhall (.361), Marco Scutaro & David DeJesus (.357), Welington Castillo (.356), Starlin Castro (.354)
03 = .353 - .333 - Shane Victorino (.353), Mike Moustakas & Mark Reynolds (.348), Danny Espinosa (.344)

02 = .332 - .312 - Tony Campana (.329), Brennan Boesch (.323)

01 = .311 - .291 - Darwin Barney (.309), Brett Jackson (.305), Luis Valbuena (.302), Michael Young (.301), Jemile Weeks (.295)

00 = .290 - .270 - Ian Stewart (.282)

#2 Spriggs

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Posted 16 November 2012 - 07:27 PM

Let me just say one thing in defense of Cabrera and the amount of DPs he hit into. I think it is MOST unfair to hold that against Cabrera -- in the very same way that most "Trout people" lend no credence to the RBI stat edge that Cabrera has. It's an opportunity thing. For the most part, Trout was a lead off guy, right? Cabrera was a middle of the order guy. Who would you guess would hit into more DPs? Am I missing something? Sure, Cabrera is a much slower runner, but this is really tilted big time against him.

PS... If I recall correctly, Augie Galan did not hit into a double play all year as the leadoff man on the 1935 NL Champion Cubs. I always thought that was cool.

#3 King Jeff

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 06:07 AM

Let me just say one thing in defense of Cabrera and the amount of DPs he hit into. I think it is MOST unfair to hold that against Cabrera -- in the very same way that most "Trout people" lend no credence to the RBI stat edge that Cabrera has. It's an opportunity thing. For the most part, Trout was a lead off guy, right? Cabrera was a middle of the order guy. Who would you guess would hit into more DPs? Am I missing something? Sure, Cabrera is a much slower runner, but this is really tilted big time against him.

PS... If I recall correctly, Augie Galan did not hit into a double play all year as the leadoff man on the 1935 NL Champion Cubs. I always thought that was cool.

In the same vein, if you discredit the DP argument because Cabrera hit more often with men on base, then you have to diminish the RBI argument for Cabrera because he simply had many more opportunities to drive in runs. I think most of us that think Trout should have won simply think he was a better all around player, and had a bigger impact on his team.

#4 Spriggs

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 10:20 AM


Let me just say one thing in defense of Cabrera and the amount of DPs he hit into. I think it is MOST unfair to hold that against Cabrera -- in the very same way that most "Trout people" lend no credence to the RBI stat edge that Cabrera has. It's an opportunity thing. For the most part, Trout was a lead off guy, right? Cabrera was a middle of the order guy. Who would you guess would hit into more DPs? Am I missing something? Sure, Cabrera is a much slower runner, but this is really tilted big time against him.

PS... If I recall correctly, Augie Galan did not hit into a double play all year as the leadoff man on the 1935 NL Champion Cubs. I always thought that was cool.

In the same vein, if you discredit the DP argument because Cabrera hit more often with men on base, then you have to diminish the RBI argument for Cabrera because he simply had many more opportunities to drive in runs. I think most of us that think Trout should have won simply think he was a better all around player, and had a bigger impact on his team.

I totally agree. I just don't think you can have it both ways. It's unfair to cite Cabrera's DPs and use that against him, while at the same time say his huge RBI edge over Trout means nothing.

#5 fromthemitten

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 01:31 PM

I don't get what the big fuss is over this... barring a PED bust or horrific injury Mike Trout's gonna win plenty of MVP awards in the future




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