7 replies to this topic

[MightyBear]

Here's one for BN nation to chew on and I'm going to post this on the message board as well:

It's a week before the All Star break and surprisingly to everyone on this site but me, the Cubs are playing pretty well, not great but better than expected. They're 40-42 and 5 games back of the Cardinals, Reds AND Brewers who are bunched at the top of the division. The pitching has been better than expected Garza, Baker and Feldman are all pitching well. Marmol is pitching lights out in the bullpen and Soriano and DeJesus are off to good starts. Castro and Rizzo are lights out but Stewart who was playing well at 3b has blown out his knee and is out for at least 2 months, probably for the year. The Cubs have holes at 3B and the bullpen. Here's the question:

Are the Cubs sellers or buyers? Do Theo/Jedi go for help and try to get to the playoffs w/o giving up the farm or do they stick with the "Plan" and trade Marmol, Baker, Feldman, Garza, etc their "flippable assets".

[Tommy]

Wow! I hope your hypothetical comes to fruition, MB. I'd have to think we'd be buyers at that point, and not just for a 3rd baseman. I've gotta think if we were only 5 games back at the All-Star break, the FO would go for it.

One of the things that does encourage me is that I don't think that our division is all that good. I don't think anything is out of the realm of possibilities in the NL Central.

[rcleven]

I would a seller. Still don't think this team will compete till 15.

You would have to consider what kind of market is out there for what you need and what's being offered for your players before a decision could be made.

I can live for 2 more years with not winning.

If we had a stronger team now I would have to think hard about being buyer.

[FFP]

Garza is still on the team? I thought he'd be dealt 12 hours after his third successful start--including spring training games.
If he stays there could be trouble.
If he goes it could be double.

[Tommy]

Garza is still on the team? I thought he'd be dealt 12 hours after his third successful start--including spring training games.
If he stays there could be trouble.
If he goes it could be double.

either way, he's on the bubble.

[Luke]

Both. In that scenario, the Cubs could deal without giving up on the season.

3B could be filled for the rest of the year by Valbuena and Vitters (and no, a bad run last season does not guarantee that Vitters will never hit in the majors). If a trade is there, the Cubs could certainly take it, but it would not be a situation in which they needed to overpay.

I suspect the Cubs would not only keep Garza in this setup, but would look to extend him. It looks like the pen is going to have some depth, so Marmol could probably still be dealt without it affecting the season too much.

Soriano... I can make you a case he should go in this scenario. If the Cubs are going to win, it will be with pitching backed by a strong defense. Their offense isn't outscoring anything in any dream scenario. Soriano, even with his improvements, is still a defensive liability. If the Cubs could deal Marmol or Soriano for a good defensive left fielder who can consistently get on base, I'd pull the trigger and let Soriano go. The offense would take a hit, but I'd not be surprised if the net effect (including defense) was less than half a win over the course of the season.

On the upgrade side of things, I think the Cubs could be in the market for a starter, or for players in their prime that are being unloaded for salary reasons. Think of the deal the Dodgers cut with the Red Sox last year. If the Cubs could take on a pitcher or a bat for little more than cash (and they'll have the room to do it), they could simultaneously improve their roster for the future while reshuffling the deck and reinforcing for a stretch run.

[fromthemitten]

Buy, but without giving up a top 10 prospect (other than Vogelbach). Go for deals with teams looking for salary relief and relievers with expiring contracts that can be acquired on the cheap.

[MightyBear]

I agree with most of what has been posted. I will say in that scenario, if the Cubs dump everybody and don't go for the playoffs, the new FO will lose me. However, if they buy even in a limited way like say Baltimore did last year, getting some help without giving up the farm, then we're good. I just don't want to see them be in contention and do the fire sale by trading Garza (assuming he looks like he did in 2011), Baker (same thing), Feldman ( same only 2009) because they just want to build for the future. I agree you build for the future but not if you can win now.