Are Free Agents Signing Earlier Than Usual This Year? And Other Bullets

MoneyThanksgiving at the Taylor household was a success. Yes, my mashed potatoes were a little looser than you might like, but damnit, I mashed them things by hand. I also made the stuffing, a broccoli cheese casserole, biscuits, and the turkey (evidence of which is here, courtesy of The Wife, who notes that I did receive a little assistance on my first turkey). Boom. Martha Stewart’d.

  • It seems like more free agents are signing in November this year, doesn’t it? I tend to keep a pretty close eye on these things – occupational hazard – but I go by feel, rather than data. (Not because I eschew data, obviously, but because there hasn’t really been a need for me to deeply research whether more players were signing in a given November than in years past.) The good news for all of us is that FanGraphs lives for those kind of off-the-wall data dives, and Paul Swydan tries to figure out if our guts are right on the timing of signings this year. It turns out that this year has actually been pretty typical, with a touch fewer free agent signings in November than in years past. We might feel like it’s a bit more, though, because there seem to have been a higher number of large contracts inked this month (McCann, Peralta, Nolasco, Jason Vargas, Jose Abreu, Alexander Guerrero, etc.), which sounds about right to me. Offseason activity, anecdotally, tends to be about the same in November and January, with a substantial peak in December (and there’s always a little trickle in February). Swydan’s data backs that up, which is interesting to see. So bring on December, I guess.
  • It’s almost disappointing to see Swydan’s results, because it would have been interesting to speculate on why free agents are signing earlier this year. I guess we can still go there a little bit, given the big deals already handed out. It’s clearly a hot market, with prices taking off … well, or so we would have thought until Ricky Nolasco got just $49 million over four, and Brian McCann got just five years and $85 million. Don’t get me wrong, those are healthy contracts. But they’re nothing like we would have expected to see for those guys in the wake of Tim Lincecum getting two years and $35 million, especially coming so soon in the offseason.
  • Baseball Prospectus approves of the George Kottaras acquisition, calling him “everyone’s favorite offensive-minded reserve catcher.” BP says his defense is “less than splendid,” but his ability to get on base and hit for power (from the left side) should work well for the Cubs, who will pair him with righty Welington Castillo.
  • FanGraphs digs much more deeply in the Kottaras trade, but primarily from the Royals’ perspective (as in: why would they give him up for such small cash savings?). The piece, however, gives you a better sense of why Kottaras, despite his attractive offensive numbers, has been a backup for his entire career.
  • Friend of the program Harry Pavlidis chatted at BP this week, and it’s a smattering of interesting bits. After having Pitchf/x data so readily available in recent years, I’m suddenly turned on to the idea of Fieldf/x data … which Harry says won’t be made publicly available any time soon. Hamburgers.
  • Ted Lilly has confirmed to Cubs.com that he is indeed retiring, primarily due to a neck issue from he doesn’t feel like he can come back. Lilly will remain a Cubs favorite for a long time. Maybe he can come to CubsCon this year and party with us!
  • The Cardinals, who signed Jhonny Peralta to a massive contract fresh off a PED suspension don’t want to be the “morality police.” The Arizona Diamondbacks, however, apparently do. Don’t try shopping your PED user to them.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

    The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

    Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

    Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

    The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

    Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

    Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

    I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

    Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

    New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

    Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

    The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

    The Stretch: 2024 MLB Season Preview

    On Monday, during a team-building conversation with some of the Bleacher Nation and Betsperts Media Group folks, we discussed sports—shocking, I know—and Brian Twining asked the group what their favorite sport was. For me, it's baseball. There's no debate. I...

    We Have to Talk About Some of the “Deals” the Cubs Sat Out in Free Agency

    This week, in a conversation with Jon Greenberg at The Athletic, Cubs President Jed Hoyer made an honest and sober (but also moderately disappointing) admission about the 2024 Chicago Cubs: "We need to perform probably at or a little bit...

    The Chicago Cubs Are Reportedly Now Worth Over $5 Billion

    Given all the tumult in the baseball broadcasting world, and the uncertain future for that portion of revenues, you'd be forgiven for expecting that MLB franchise valuations would slow their recent surge. But, according to Sportico at least, you'd be...

    Reds Second Baseman Matt McLain Had Shoulder Surgery

    The injury to Matt McLain's shoulder issue obviously wound up being worse than he and the Cincinnati Reds had been hoping. The damage to his left (non-throwing) labrum ultimately required surgery: https://twitter.com/m_sheldon/status/1772993402604339478 When the hope is that a guy can...

    Latest News

    WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

    The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

    Pac-12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 28

    There is one game featuring a Pac-12 teams on the Thursday postseason college basketball schedule, the Clemson Tigers versus the Arizona Wildcats. Make sure you check out below for today's best bets!How to Bet on Pac-12 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best Pac-12...

    Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Tampa Bay Rays look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-135) in a season-opening matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on MLB Network, live from Tropicana...

    Astros vs. Yankees Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Houston Astros look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-156) in a season-opening matchup with the New York Yankees. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on YES, live from Minute Maid Park.Houston's...

    Tigers vs. White Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Detroit Tigers begin their season as -181 favorites in a road tilt against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on BSDET.Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit while Garrett Crochet is Chicago's starter for the contest.Tigers...

    Reds vs. Nationals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Cincinnati Reds begin their season as -154 favorites in a home tilt against the Washington Nationals on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on MASN2.Cincinnati's Frankie Montas gets the start, and he'll go against Washington's Josiah Gray.Reds vs. Nationals...

    Dodgers vs. Cardinals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Los Angeles Dodgers (1-1) will look to Will Smith, red hot after a four-hit game, to lead them in a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals (0-0) on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on BSMW. The Dodgers are -232...

    Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Miami Marlins look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-133) in a season-opening matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on Sportsnet PT, live from LoanDepot park.Miami's Jesus...

    Padres vs. Giants Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The San Francisco Giants (0-0) are the underdogs on the moneyline (-106) in Thursday's contest against the San Diego Padres (1-1). Game time is set for 4:10 PM ET on NBCS-BA. The Giants are favored against the spread in this...

    Twins vs. Royals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Minnesota Twins look to start their season with a win as road favorites (-122) in a season-opening matchup with the Kansas City Royals. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on BSN, live from Kauffman Stadium.Pablo Lopez...

    more cubs news