6 replies to this topic

[Justen]

Chicago Cubs



Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
Just because a team is rebuilding doesn't mean it can't spend money. For example, the $6 million the Cubs spent on Scott Feldman, a back-of-the-rotation starter, and $5.5 million they spent on Scott Baker, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is likely to start the season on the disabled list, could be seen as wasteful considering those two alone aren't going to turn the Cubs into a contender after the team lost 101 games in 2012. But the team will be more competitive with two veterans at the back of the rotation, which is important to the fan base that spends the money to watch the product on the field.


And if the Cubs are out of the race in July, then they can turn around and trade them for prospects. It works out as long as they're not both completely terrible. In the case of Edwin Jackson's four-year deal, it not only helps the team be more competitive now, but the 29-year-old will also be a key component when the team reaches its optimal window of contention a few years down the road.


With only Jackson, shortstop Starlin Castro and prospect Jorge Soler guaranteed contracts beyond 2014, the Cubs have the financial means to go after the biggest names on the free-agent market over the next couple of offseasons as they gear up for a run in 2015. An impressive group of prospects, including Soler and Javier Baez, should be lineup regulars by then and another, 2012 first-round pick Albert Almora, should be closing in on the majors. Cubs fans shouldn't be discouraged by another losing season in 2013. If you pay close enough attention to what Theo Epstein and his crew are doing, you'll know good things are on the horizon.


Extension candidates
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (eligible for free agency after 2018): After getting worked over in his rookie season of 2011 while with the Padres, Rizzo was traded over the winter for Andrew Cashner and showed an ability to make adjustments with an impressive debut with the Cubs in 2012. He wasn't called up until late June and still managed to hit 15 homers and knock in 48 runs while hitting in the No. 3 spot of the lineup. If he follows it up with another solid year, the Cubs probably won't need much more convincing to get contract talks going.


CHC payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses. YEAR GS *Source: Cot's Contracts 2013 $80M (4) 2014 $49M (7) 2015 $21M 2016 $23M 2017 $12M
Matt Garza, RHP (2013): The Cubs have actually built up enough pitching depth where they could trade Garza and still have a chance to not be completely awful. But they can certainly afford to keep the 29-year-old long-term and it shouldn't be much of a surprise if they sign him to a contract extension. There is a lot of excitement internally about the direction of the organization and Garza would love to be a part of the turnaround.


Jeff Samardzija, RHP (2015): The former star wide receiver for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish shouldn't have to be referred to as "the former star wide receiver for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish" any longer after last year's breakout performance. In reality, his NFL career may have been coming to a close by now after several years of getting punished by defenders while catching passes over the middle. His baseball career is just getting off the ground, however, and he'll get paid a lot of money over the next several years to throw a baseball and not get hit by very large human beings several times over the course of a three-hour game. Good choice.


Weaknesses
The rotation is going to keep this team in games but the lineup isn't good enough to jump out to too many leads and the bullpen isn't deep enough to hold the few leads they'll have. A veteran outfield of David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz and Alfonso Soriano should give the team plenty of good at-bats, and Castro and Rizzo should take another step forward in 2013, but it won't be enough. They're just not quite there yet.


The addition of Japanese reliever Kyuji Fujikawa helps, but the success of the bullpen could depend on which version of Carlos Marmol shows up in 2013. He was awful in the first half of 2012 (5.61 ERA) and one of the best closers in baseball over the second half (1.52 ERA). Arodys Vizcaino has the potential to be a late-inning shutdown reliever but is being eased back into a starter's role in the minors after missing the 2012 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.


Potential free-agent targets
Welington Castillo should get a fair chance to prove he can be a solid big league catcher in 2013, but it might be his last chance because a couple of pretty good veteran backstops, Brian McCann and Carlos Ruiz, hit free agency after the season and there might not be a better chance to find one before the Cubs' projected optimal window in 2015. The presence of Almora and Soler in the farm system might keep the Cubs from going long-term on more than one free-agent outfielder. There will be plenty to choose from over the next two offseasons.


Trade bait
Go ahead and plug every veteran player on the roster into this category. If GM Jed Hoyer feels he can make the team better in 2014 and beyond by sacrificing talent from the current squad, he'll pull the trigger. And he has players with value, including Garza, DeJesus, Marmol, Soriano, Baker and Feldman.


Waiting in the wings
Almora, Baez and Soler are the big names to keep an eye on over the next several years. All three are expected to be impact players at the major league level. Vizcaino is the lone pitching prospect who has a chance to make an impact in 2013. He'll start the season in the Triple-A Iowa rotation, where the Cubs will assess whether his future will remain in the rotation or in the back of the bullpen.


Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Dan Vogelbach, 1B (2016); Javier Baez, SS/3B (2015); Albert Almora, OF (2016); Jorge Soler, OF (2014); Pierce Johnson, RHP (2015); Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (2013)

[TWC]

I appreciate you posting this, sprtswiz1, but it occurs to me that Ace might not be comfortable with such a large cut-and-paste from a paid site (ESPN Insider). I think discussion about it is fine -- and encouraged! -- and including a few relevant quotes is awesome. But pasting the whole article is a no-no around here.

[calicubsfan007]

If Vogelbach is said to be a future regular, it won't be at 1B. I still think that it is likely that the Cubs will trade him before 2016, especially if Rizzo continues to own.

[SirCub]

I appreciate you posting this, sprtswiz1, but it occurs to me that Ace might not be comfortable with such a large cut-and-paste from a paid site (ESPN Insider). I think discussion about it is fine -- and encouraged! -- and including a few relevant quotes is awesome. But pasting the whole article is a no-no around here.

Yea, I concur with this. Although I often wish I could get a sneak peak at some of the insider pieces, I agree that it's not necessarily a good idea.

[Justen]

I appreciate you posting this, sprtswiz1, but it occurs to me that Ace might not be comfortable with such a large cut-and-paste from a paid site (ESPN Insider). I think discussion about it is fine -- and encouraged! -- and including a few relevant quotes is awesome. But pasting the whole article is a no-no around here.

sorry, i wasnt aware of that. i will keep it in mind for the future.

[X the cubs fan]

Vogelbach will be up in 2015 at firstbase. Probably not with the cubs.

[fromthemitten]

Hopefully the NL will adopt the DH by the time he's MLB ready. Dude has Adam Dunn power written all over him