CubsMas Day 2 winner...Day 3 suggestions please...
Oswego Chris - Dec 09 2013 10:39 PM
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Man, In one day, I'm a Fangraphs Addict
Posted 01 February 2013 - 12:27 PM
Was just reading an article on Mike Trout. It actually old, from November 29th. But just in that article, I learned a whole lot about stats. A basic stat guy, like I used to be(I can say that now) would be ready to say Trout is going to hit .350 next year with 50HR and 125 RBI. He still might, but now there is reason to say whether he will or not.
Looking at stuff like his crazy high BABIP, one stat that I was already actually familar with , of .383, contributing to his high average of .326, it's not all that crazy to suggest that our own Starling Castro is actually a better all around hitter for average then Trout. Compare Trouts .383 which is probably a little high and on the lucky side according to the writer, Jeff Zimmerman, to Castro .315, 30 points below his career average for 2012 and as a result, his career low .283 average, and take both back to where they should be and you have 2 guys that maight both be right around .300 next yext. These number make you doubt trout hitting .350 like I would have though, despite his maturation.
If you look at his minor league numbers, which include 30 HR in 1200+ AB, including just 1 HR in 77 minor league ABs last year, there a chance that trout rookie season may end being his best season of his career. Do I believe that, not really. But there alot behinds his numbers that I would have never looked at that suggest that last season he was a really good baseball with a whole lot of luck.
Looking at his Run Value Heat Map, there is reason to believe he will see a lot of inside pitches next year, and without adjustments, he will not have the season he had this year.
This shit is actually cool.
Posted 01 February 2013 - 01:04 PM
Fangraphs is, like, crazy town for that stuff. I love it.
Also check out Tom Tango's The Book. It's pretty dense, but it's really really descriptive about how wOBA, RC, and some other new-ish stats came about, and the reasoning behind them. I really loved the simple breakdown, early in the book, where he discusses "base states". It's a fascinating way of looking at the game.
Posted 01 February 2013 - 02:28 PM
Posted 01 February 2013 - 04:48 PM
Of course, Castro is no Bengie Molina so maybe he did have some lousy luck
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