The Tanaka Story, the Cubs’ Actual Chances, and the Importance of Narratives

sad thoughtful catIf you aren’t interested in hashing out any of the particulars of how it came to be that the Chicago Cubs were very involved in the Masahiro Tanaka process, but didn’t actually sign him, you can stop reading here. As of today, I’m not too interested in it, myself. My pot is actually much more stirred by the rooftop news.

But, for posterity, the narrative surrounding what happened in this Tanaka process is going to start forming today, and people will want to look back on it – a month from now, a year from now, five years from now – and use it as the basis for arguments. So, while it’s fresh, it’s important to get some things down on paper.

First, and foremost: the Cubs were genuinely interested in landing Tanaka. There was no dog and pony show, and there was a serious effort made. Tanaka was a real fit for this organization, and they were willing to spend serious money to get him, even if there was reason to suspect it would be difficult to convince him to sign on.

Secondly … I’m just not sure they could ever have actually signed him. I expressed my reservations about the Cubs’ ability to land Tanaka from day one, based not on anything the Cubs could or couldn’t do, but based on a simple question: if I were Tanaka, what would I do? Coming to a foreign country, signing the primary contract of my MLB career, and having no personal ties to any particular team … I’d probably want to sign with the Yankees. They are a perennial contender playing on the biggest stage in the world. They always spend the money necessary to field a competitive team, and they have the most storied history in baseball. Hate ’em all you want, but if you were in Tanaka’s shoes, you, too, would feel the pull.

According to the New York Daily news, Tanaka did feel that pull, and truly wanted to be a Yankee.

Throw in the Yankees’ desperate need for pitching and unlimited resources, and this was always an easy call. So why were we led to believe the Cubs had a legitimate shot? Well, because, as reports indicated, they probably did “lead” – in terms of the bidding – for a stretch this past week. But as I wrote a few days ago:

It’s impossible to sort fact from fiction in anything related to Tanaka, but I think it’s interesting to consider how it all could be playing out behind the scenes if the things that we believe to be true are actually true. Imagine that the Cubs are the high bidder, primarily because they know they have to be the high bidder to have any chance of overcoming the geographical and competitive lures of Los Angeles and New York. Until you’re told that Tanaka is actually going to accept the Cubs’ deal, there is no incentive for you – the Yankees or the Dodgers – to match the Cubs’ offer. They can rely on the geography/competitive stuff to keep their offer down until the last minute when they know precisely how high they have to come to get a deal done. So, in that way, it makes sense that the Cubs would be the “leader” in the bidding, maybe right up until a deal has to be completed in a couple days. Then, the preferred team(s) swoop(s) in, ups their offer just enough, and closes on Tanaka (after his agent returns to the Cubs, explaining that they can get the money they need from a preferred team, and the only way the Cubs can get him now is if they make an obscene, reckless offer). It’s not hard to imagine things playing out this way, as unhappy as it may make you.

It gives me absolutely no pleasure to have been right, but it looks like that’s exactly what happened. The Yankees waited things out, probably got a sense that Tanaka really wanted to join the Yankees, and upped their offer just enough to get him at the last minute over the Cubs (who appear to have been the runner up). As Joel Sherman reports, the Yankees were at six years for some time now, but were told the deal wasn’t getting done without going to seven years. The New York Times reports that the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs were indeed the final three teams for Tanaka, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman said that he was told, although the Yankees’ final offer was the highest, the others weren’t far off.

To me, that suggests that the reports of the Cubs being at seven years were accurate*, and the Yankees knew all along what they were going to need to do to get Tanaka. The Cubs pushed them to that edge, and the Yankees stepped up.

*We can play some word games with what the Cubs’ “offer” was, but what matters is how high they were willing to go. All indications this afternoon are that the Cubs were willing to get up into that 7-year, $150 million (plus posting fee) range, if it would get the deal done. Since it became apparent at some point that Tanaka wanted the Yankees and the Yankees wanted Tanaka, maybe the Cubs never actually reached that level. You could say that, therefore, the Cubs didn’t have the money to get Tanaka, but only because they couldn’t blow the Yankees’ enormous offer of the water (because of course they couldn’t (and shouldn’t)). That’s really just a matter of semantics. The Cubs were willing to make an enormous offer, but, unless they went absolutely insane with an offer, they still weren’t going to get him.

You can call that the Cubs getting Sanchez’d again – and maybe they did – but that doesn’t mean the Cubs did anything wrong here. They targeted a guy they really wanted. They saved their ammo to get him (limited ammo that, given the state of the organization, they weren’t inclined to spend on any of the free agents who’ve already signed anyway). I’ve got to believe they were led to understand they had a real shot at him. Given the fact that, at the last moment, the Yankees came up to slightly exceed the Cubs’ offer, it appears obvious that the Yankees, for one, believed Tanaka would really consider going to the Cubs.

So, what’s the “story” of the Tanaka pursuit, as we contextualize it down the road and re-tell the story of the Cubs’ progress as an organization? Is it that tanking for several seasons kills your chances of signing star players, even when you’re willing to pay? I’m not so sure I buy that in this particular context, given Tanaka’s apparently particularized desire to go to the Yankees (and or desire to be on one of the coasts). And, hell, the Mariners got Robinson Cano, after all. If you spend the money, they will come.

Is the story that the Cubs couldn’t afford the one guy they targeted? Again, I’m not so sure it is, given that it doesn’t sound like the Cubs were going to be able to sign Tanaka absent one of those instant-regret kinds of contracts. By most accounts, the money was there to commit $150+ million to Tanaka, which has to be taken as a positive signal going forward. If the Cubs don’t sign any legitimate, big money free agents next offseason? Well, then this is the part of the Tanaka narrative we can revisit and consider anew. For now, it looks like money wasn’t so much of the issue as the “fit.” Tanaka is a person, you know. He has a say in this.

So … I don’t have much of an over-arching story to sum this all up. The Cubs don’t make moves – or, well, try to make moves – in a vacuum. Other teams want these players, too, and sometimes shit just happens.

I guess I’d call this a “To Be Continued” kind of thing. The Cubs weren’t aiming, with their offseason, to build a contender in 2014. That much is clear. Not getting Tanaka doesn’t really do any harm, therefore, to the 2014 team. Not getting him, however, does a great deal of harm to the possibility of being competitive in 2015, absent a series of moves made within the next 15 months to make up for that lost value (trades for near-term impact pieces, free agent signings, etc.). In theory, the Cubs should have the money and the prospect assets (together with, hopefully, a couple prospect breakouts) to turn the corner in 2015.

I hate that 2014 is being punted, but it became the right approach a long time ago for a variety of reasons. When I think about the Cubs missing out on Tanaka at this time next year, though, I want to think about how it all worked out in the end, because the organization still lined itself up for a competitive run, starting in 2015.

Then this entire Tanaka story, and the entire narrative we build around it over the coming weeks and months, becomes little more than something talked about in passing during meaningful September Cubs game in the years to come.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

The Stretch: 2024 MLB Season Preview

On Monday, during a team-building conversation with some of the Bleacher Nation and Betsperts Media Group folks, we discussed sports—shocking, I know—and Brian Twining asked the group what their favorite sport was. For me, it's baseball. There's no debate. I...

We Have to Talk About Some of the “Deals” the Cubs Sat Out in Free Agency

This week, in a conversation with Jon Greenberg at The Athletic, Cubs President Jed Hoyer made an honest and sober (but also moderately disappointing) admission about the 2024 Chicago Cubs: "We need to perform probably at or a little bit...

The Chicago Cubs Are Reportedly Now Worth Over $5 Billion

Given all the tumult in the baseball broadcasting world, and the uncertain future for that portion of revenues, you'd be forgiven for expecting that MLB franchise valuations would slow their recent surge. But, according to Sportico at least, you'd be...

Reds Second Baseman Matt McLain Had Shoulder Surgery

The injury to Matt McLain's shoulder issue obviously wound up being worse than he and the Cincinnati Reds had been hoping. The damage to his left (non-throwing) labrum ultimately required surgery: https://twitter.com/m_sheldon/status/1772993402604339478 When the hope is that a guy can...

Cubs Actually Getting a Whole Lot of Votes to Win the NL Central

ESPN dropped its big season preview, and included were a set of divisional predictions by way of their writers, editors, and analysts voting. There's nothing in the way of proof or certainty there, but with 26 voters, I do like...

Latest News

Celtics vs. Hawks Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Atlanta Hawks (33-39) are big, 17.5-point underdogs as they attempt to build on a three-game winning streak when they host the Boston Celtics (57-15) on Thursday, March 28, 2024 at State Farm Arena. The matchup airs at 7:30 PM...

Celtics vs. Hawks Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Atlanta Hawks (33-39) are big, 17.5-point underdogs as they attempt to build on a three-game winning streak when they host the Boston Celtics (57-15) on Thursday, March 28, 2024 at State Farm Arena. The contest airs at 7:30 PM...

Bucks vs. Pelicans Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The New Orleans Pelicans (44-28) are only 2-point underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks (46-26) at Smoothie King Center on Thursday, March 28, 2024. The game begins at 8:00 PM ET on NBA. The matchup's point total is 223.If you are...

How to Watch Indiana State Sycamores vs. Utah Utes: Live Stream or on TV

The Indiana State Sycamores (31-6) will attempt to build on a three-game winning streak when they host the Utah Utes (22-14) on April 2, 2024. The Utes have also won three games in a row.Indiana State won its most recent...

How to Watch Seton Hall Pirates vs. Georgia Bulldogs: Live Stream or on TV

The Seton Hall Pirates (23-12) will attempt to extend a three-game win streak when they host the Georgia Bulldogs (20-16) on April 2, 2024. The Bulldogs have also won three games in a row.In its previous game, Seton Hall beat...

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Arizona Diamondbacks, led by Corbin Carroll, take on Nolan Jones and the Colorado Rockies in their first game of the season, at 10:10 PM ET on Thursday.If you're trying to watch this game, keep reading for streaming and TV...

Mariners vs. Red Sox: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Seattle Mariners, led by Julio Rodriguez, square off against Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox in their opening game of the season, at 10:10 PM ET on Thursday.If you're trying to watch this game, keep reading for streaming...

Guardians vs. Athletics: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

In their season opener on Thursday, Jose Ramirez and the Cleveland Guardians face Brent Rooker and the Oakland Athletics, with first pitch scheduled for 10:07 PM ET at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.The article below will give you everything you need to...

Senators vs. Blackhawks Prediction: Picks, Live Odds and Moneyline – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The bookmakers give the edge to the Ottawa Senators on home ice (-198) over the Chicago Blackhawks (+164) when they face off on Thursday, March 28 at 7:00 PM ET.Senators vs. Blackhawks Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Senators (-198)Underdog: Blackhawks (+164)Total: 6.5Best...

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

more cubs news