30 replies to this topic

[FarmerTanColin]

The Cubs have done an immense job at replenishing what was one of the most depleted farm systems in a short amount of time. Using their available money to turn Maholm into Vizcaino, 9 years of Soler power and investing into the draft and so on and so forth. Most of the impact talent is in the lower levels but there are actually signs of logjams at the upper levels.

I'm wondering who are some possible theoretical (theojedical?) break out candidates that might have more value in a trade package instead of just being depth pieces.

Couple names I thought of that after a couple good months could look really shiny to some teams.

Jae-Hoon Ha 2012 .273/.352/.385 wRC+110 over 529 PA in AA

Ha is a kid that I like and I am excited to see him at Iowa this season. He is young (22), took walks at a near 10% clip, arguably the best defensive center fielder in the system and can be a 10/10 guy. Also hit a homerun in the futures game! Iowa is a great place to boost some numbers so what if he puts up a slash line of .300/.370/.400 after the first couple months? There is most definitely value here. Lets look at Denard Span's numbers. 568 PA, 4 HR, 17 SB,.283/.342/.395 to a tune of 3.9 WAR or how about a DeJesus type with better defense?

Ha is going to need to pass DeJesus,  maybe Sappelt, probably the Schierholtz/Hairston combo and BJax to see some major time in Chicago.

Next is

Roni Torreyes 2012 .as a 19 year old in A+ .264/.326/.385 line with a BABIP of .268 6 HR and 13 SB

Luke pointed out his second half numbers were very good after his slow start. He may be a one tool wonder but if the rest of his game is league average then it is going to look valuable. His BABIP from past seasons has been very close to his actual average so he looks like a perennial .300 hitter. Has more walks than strikeouts which is amazing and is going into AA at age 20. This is more of the end of the season type of value but is it out the possibility that he could put up a .300/.360/.450 type of line, that is going to be hard to ignore. I don't see a comparison here except maybe if Matt Murton played second base.

He is very young but next season  he could make an impact. With Barney and Watkins in front of him along with Valbuena there is a chance he wouldn't be able to see time anyway.

I don't think we'd trade any pitchers but here's one possibility.

Barret Loux was 14-1 in 127 innings with a FIP 3.66 in the Rangers AA system.

His season last year is actually the type that I'm talking about. After a weird start to his career he has battled injuries to play in two full seasons without setbacks. Noting back to Luke, no standout pitches but no bad ones as well. 4-5 average offerings are good enough to get through a lot of lineups when the command is there. If Mike Leake is a comparable guy then there is value here as well.

So here are my three that theojedically could be packaged to go or be cost effective replacements if they have good seasons. In reality I doubt we package any prospects for trades and who knows what these guys do this next season. I was going to put down some return value but I think a starting pitcher with 1-2 upside will suffice.

[Brett]

This could make for a very interesting topic.

[CubChymyst]

The names you mentioned might work as add ins to improve the return prospect. Similar to how Reed Johnson was traded with Maholm when we got Vizciano. I'm thinking throwing one or two in with Garza or Marmol as away to improve the prospects that come back.

[calicubsfan007]

The only problem I have is that I am not always fond of the gamble of the player we could get in return. I.e. He could be a number one pitcher, but he has had Tommy John as well as he isn't recovering as well or quickly as expected. That is really my only problem, what is really the line? When do we stop looking at what he could be and look at what he is now? I hope Theo doesn't go after one of those guys.

[FarmerTanColin]

The sort of idea with these guys is that they actually limit the risk of getting burned on a trade since it would be when their peak value and are buried in the depth chart to make an impact at the ML level.

Therefore it would be beneficial to trade for a 3B, catcher or starting pitcher (general area in need) instead of dwindling a trade-able talent in the upper minors. The underlying message is....do the Cubs actually have the depth to do this after such a little amount of time?

I wouldn't be surprised if we could pull some kind of bigger trade this season sending prospects for someone established.

[calicubsfan007]

It would be probably a starting pitcher at best, but a third baseman in reality. I don't think we are stocked enough to get a great established starting pitcher yet, especially with these trades other teams are doing for guys like Greinke and Shields. I wouldn't mind getting a 3bman though. I think Stewart might have injured himself out of Chicago.

[Kygavin]

I think C is obviously the biggest area of need but unless Jed and Theo can talk the Reds into dealing Mesoraco there arent really that many options out there (unless you believe Jesus Montero can catch...I dont). The other problem is the trade market for 3B is just as weak. If the Padres would be willing to deal Headley he could be an attractive option but that would be gambling on his 1 good season. Olt is also an option but if we are talking about a getting a proven player for specs that kinda rules him out. I think right now the Cubs would be better to hold off (unless a stud goes on discount like the Dbacks/Upton situation) and keep stockpiling minor league assets by dealing MLB guys, hopefully finding a highly ranked SP somewhere

[Petrowsky]

The other problem is the trade market for 3B is just as weak. If the Padres would be willing to deal Headley he could be an attractive option but that would be gambling on his 1 good season.

Not to be nit picky but Chase Headley has been a good player over the course of his career. Obviously, last year makes his other years look like crap, but Headley was an above average 3B before last year. He was still one of the best defensive 3b in baseball before last year. He steals some bases and hits for a respectable average. The problem is where he plays over his talent level. Take Headley out of the NL West, which has some very pitcher friendly parks, and put him in another division and I think you would see a rise in his HR and RBI totals.

[calicubsfan007]

I really thought that we were going to get Headley last year before the start of the season. But it wouldn't suprise me that San Diego probably asked for too much for him.

[Petrowsky]

I was really hoping they were going to get him and that was before his offensive outburst. Even before the season started it seemed San Diego was asking alot. I wonder what it would take to get Gyorko?

[Kygavin]

Not to be nit picky but Chase Headley has been a good player over the course of his career. Obviously, last year makes his other years look like crap, but Headley was an above average 3B before last year. He was still one of the best defensive 3b in baseball before last year.

Headley has been a solid starter but his dWAR the last 3 seasons have been 1.7, 0.3, 0.0 so I wouldnt call him one of the best defensive 3B's but his bat is solid enough (and probably would play up more in Wrigley) to make him an above average 3B. That being said i think his availability depends on how well Gyorko transitions to 2B. If he can stay there and not be terrible than they really have no incentive to deal Headley for anything less than a top package, which is something I hope the Cubs wouldnt pay for a 29 yr old who most likely just had his best season. Like i said in my other post i would be happier if the Cubs just waited until Baez is ready and have him play 3B,

[fromthemitten]

We have pretty good depth at 3B in the minors with Vitters, Villanueva, and Lake where I would wait to see if they pan out before giving up a big package for a player who is going to be overvalued due to the dearth of MLB ready talent at that position.

[Tommy]

We have pretty good depth at 3B in the minors with Vitters, Villanueva, and Lake where I would wait to see if they pan out before giving up a big package for a player who is going to be overvalued due to the dearth of MLB ready talent at that position.

And Baez!

[fromthemitten]

and Candelario, but the ones I listed have a reasonable chance of playing in the majors this season.

[FarmerTanColin]

How about Kyle Seager? Thoughts on what it would take the Mariners to trade him? He can play Second as well and a little shortstop when needed. Young and cost controlled with good defense.

What package would that take? Also 3B is not as weak as people may realize and is definitely on the rise. Olt, Arendo and Gyorko a long with recent guys like Middlebrooks, Moustakis, Lawrie, Seager, Todd Frazier, Machado and some guys I'm missing.

Personally I like Vitters' bat but not his glove, LF would be more of a chance for him to learn to play defense similar to Soriano. From the games I saw of Villaneuva he looked extremely over matched from 90mph fast balls.