30 replies to this topic

[fromthemitten]

Gyorko is going to play 2B. Machado's going to move to SS when JJ Hardy's contract expires. Arendo is still a ways away (and possibly blocked by Jordan Pacheo).

I also forgot Logan Watkins, who might be able to handle the hot corner if his arm is good enough.

[calicubsfan007]

Gyorko is going to play 2B. Machado's going to move to SS when JJ Hardy departs. Arendo is still a ways away (and possibly blocked by Jordan Pacheo).

I also forgot Logan Watkins, who might be able to handle the hot corner if his arm is good enough.

Might take him a bit to get him all readied up for 3rd

[Kygavin]

Im not saying 3B is weak, just those likely to be available for trade. I dont see any of those guys you listed, with the exception of MAYBE Middlebrooks if Bogaerts cant handle SS, being available since they are all young and cost controlled like you said.

i do like Seager a lot though. High contact rates, hit over 328 in his 3 minor league season while showing a good eye and keeping his Ks down. Also had a ton of doubles power that turned into HR power last year in the bigs. WAR has him as a below average defender but from what I have seen I would say he is about average.

Now as far as a package goes, the good thing is that the Ms need offense (7 of their top10 according to KLaw are P) which the Cubs could provide. They would need a 3B back so maybe something like: Vitters/Lake and Jackson?(Probably not enough IMO) I dont know. Would have to be something pretty solid i would think for them to trade a 25 yr old who hit 20 HR in his first season.

[FarmerTanColin]

I agree in working a classic trade from a team where a guy is hitting free agency and the club can't afford to sign said player or a money dump trade is not likely but there are plenty of guys with the ability to play third base that we could do prospects for prospects swap.

I don't like to name names because I'm picturing a generalized situation not quite X and O's.

Anyone know of a way to look at past trades with some guidelines? I think if one could go back and look at trades involving a regular player with less than 3 years of service time then we could start to get an actual baseline to the value of this generalized player that I will call Seagyorobrooks.

[Kygavin]

Off the top of my head the only guys i can think of are Upton and Bauer but those trades were more about guys who "didnt fit what the org wanted" or some BS like that so they ot less than they should have for both of them....

Looking into it a little more:

• Colby Rasmus was involved in the Edwin Jackson to the Cards deal that basically ended up Rasmus for Ejax,Rzepczynski, Dotel.
• Chris Davis was traded for Koji Uehara
• Kevin Kouzmanoff was traded for Scott Hairston, Aaron Cunningham and Eric Sogard
• JJ Hardy was traded for Carlos Gomez (could look at this as Gomez for Hardy as well, both about 3ish yrs of service time)
• Edwin Encarnacion was in a package for Scott Rolen

I probably missed some and I left out deals with SP since we are talking about hitters. Obviously there were some other factors other than straight up value involved (Kouzmanoff was dealt to open 3b for Headley) but thats what i could find

[FarmerTanColin]

Nice find! The Kouzmanoff was an interesting trade.

He put up 3 years of 2.4-2.8 war according to fangraphs. Then using Sickels ratings Cunningham was a B OF prospect and Sogard was a C+ inf prospect.  Hairston was still an upside OF with decent mlb experience and a former Padre.

Looking into the Gomez Hardy trade.

Hardy was having a bad season and got demoted to the minors where Gomez, while being the main guy in the Santana trade, was stuck behind Span, Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Kubel.

Cubs are going to need a situation of extenuating circumstances but the value of these deals don't seem too bad regardless.  

I think even the Rizzo for Cashner deal is a pretty good example. The Hardy trade feels a bit like the Ian Stewart trade as well.

I see Mike Olt fitting here which might be an abused name but he is behind Beltre/Moreland/Berkman and has Joey Gallo as a rising player in the lower minors.

Nolan Arenado also I don't think is too far away. 21 with nearly 600 PA in AA ball and a "down" season of .285/.337/.428. Also blocked by Pacheo and Chris Nelson but this isn't as ideal.

For 3ish years of service time players its going to take unforeseeable circumstances it's looking like to get some movement.

[Kygavin]

Nothing "scientific" in my research just a few google searches so im sure i missed something or some details but thats what i could find.
I still think Olt is the most likely guy for them as long as Garza can get healthy. Texas obviously needs an arm and have an excess at 1B/3B and the Cubs obviously need a 3B. It just seems to fit too well for it not to work. He seems to be really the only guy who is more or less buried or has a capable guy to take over. I also would keep an eye on Middlebrooks. IF Bogaerts cant handle SS (said IF since seems to be about 50/50 depending on which scout you listen to) then that would open up Middlebrooks to be traded and he could be a decent option but my money is still on Olt or no one

[calicubsfan007]

Nice find! The Kouzmanoff was an interesting trade.

He put up 3 years of 2.4-2.8 war according to fangraphs. Then using Sickels ratings Cunningham was a B OF prospect and Sogard was a C+ inf prospect. Hairston was still an upside OF with decent mlb experience and a former Padre.

Looking into the Gomez Hardy trade.

Hardy was having a bad season and got demoted to the minors where Gomez, while being the main guy in the Santana trade, was stuck behind Span, Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Kubel.

Cubs are going to need a situation of extenuating circumstances but the value of these deals don't seem too bad regardless.

I think even the Rizzo for Cashner deal is a pretty good example. The Hardy trade feels a bit like the Ian Stewart trade as well.

I see Mike Olt fitting here which might be an abused name but he is behind Beltre/Moreland/Berkman and has Joey Gallo as a rising player in the lower minors.

Nolan Arenado also I don't think is too far away. 21 with nearly 600 PA in AA ball and a "down" season of .285/.337/.428. Also blocked by Pacheo and Chris Nelson but this isn't as ideal.

For 3ish years of service time players its going to take unforeseeable circumstances it's looking like to get some movement.

Olt would be great to get. I heard he was struggling in SP. Anyone know if that is true?

[calicubsfan007]

Nothing "scientific" in my research just a few google searches so im sure i missed something or some details but thats what i could find.
I still think Olt is the most likely guy for them as long as Garza can get healthy. Texas obviously needs an arm and have an excess at 1B/3B and the Cubs obviously need a 3B. It just seems to fit too well for it not to work. He seems to be really the only guy who is more or less buried or has a capable guy to take over. I also would keep an eye on Middlebrooks. IF Bogaerts cant handle SS (said IF since seems to be about 50/50 depending on which scout you listen to) then that would open up Middlebrooks to be traded and he could be a decent option but my money is still on Olt or no one

I agree. I think the Cubs might be a little gun shy to trade for a veteran 3bman since the Stewart trade hasn't exactly benefited us.

[fromthemitten]

At this point, I doubt the front office is thinking about acquiring position players since that's the strength of the farm system even if they're a couple years away. I doubt the Cubs want to acquire "MLB ready" position player because of service time concerns and would rather see the guys in the lower minors like the big 3 develop. Their focus on the trade market (and this year's draft) is going to be pitching pitching pitching because excess of high floor low ceiling guys in the minors. The only position players I can see them going after is catcher because the most promising "prospect" in the org other than Castillo/Clevanger is Michael Brenley who was mostly drafted out of a favor to Bob.

[calicubsfan007]

At this point, I doubt the front office is thinking about acquiring position players since that's the strength of the farm system even if they're a couple years away. I doubt the Cubs want to acquire "MLB ready" position player because of service time concerns and would rather see the guys in the lower minors like the big 3 develop. Their focus on the trade market (and this year's draft) is going to be pitching pitching pitching because excess of high floor low ceiling guys in the minors. The only position players I can see them going after is catcher because the most promising "prospect" in the org other than Castillo/Clevanger is Michael Brenley who was mostly drafted out of a favor to Bob.

If that is our brightest spot at catching, then I agree we might need to acquire a better option.

[fromthemitten]

Well, I would defer to Luke, but I don't remember a single catcher being on his top 40

[calicubsfan007]

I wonder what would be the best choice to deal with that weak spot.

[Kygavin]

Olt is hitting .125 (3-24) with 1 2B 1 HR 2BB and 10K

As far as catchers go, unless Castillo surprises this year it is definitely the weakest spot on the team from MLB on down through the minors. Like i said earlier Devin Mesoraco would be an attractive option since Dusty hates young position players, but that would require prying a top prospect from a division rival. Another option could be Jarred Saltalamacchia from BOS. Big power and was once a top spec but has been almost useless vs righties in his career and there is no indication that he is on the block, even though the Sox have some depth at C. A third (and unattractive) MLB option would be John Buck who is holding down the job until Travis D'Arnaud is ready in NY but he is old and has power but nothing else. Thats about it on the MLB level that I see.

Catcher prospect wise available guys COULD be:

• Christian Bethancourt, ATL- glove is MLB ready but bat has struggled
• Ryan Lavarnway BOS- Huge bat but not thought of as a guy to catch 140+ games a year (Jesus Montero with not quite as big of a bat)
• William Swanner COL- put up some huge numbers last year but questions whether he can stay behind the dish, also kinda a 1-year-wonder
• Hank Coner LAA- Another big bat with defensive question marks. has been buried in LA but was once a top spec
• Austin Romine NYY- Decent bat, solid behind the plate and the yanks have 2 more C specs (spoiler alert) that are likely to push Romine soon. NYY weak at C on MLB level though
• Gary Sanchez NYY- One of NYY's top specs would most likely be out of the Cubs price range considering the lack of C at MLB level Yanks have
• JR Murphy NYY- Glove is ahead of the bat but would be the most likely to move of the C's since he is behind Romine and Sanchez in pecking order
• Derek Norris OAK- Good bat and decent behind the plate, MLB ready and A's just tarded for John Jaso, unlikely but possible
• Tommy Joseph PHI- Catcher of the future for the Phils, would probably take a lot to get him but could be a monster
• Austin Hedes SD- my personal favorite, popping up on top 100 lists this year, one of the best defensive C in the minors and the bat is solid as well. Far away but with Grandal in SD already, Hedges could be an option

Sorry for the length I got a bit excited

[fromthemitten]

With a logjam of 1B/DH types the Mariners might be forced to choose between Zunino and Montero.