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Time to trade Darwin Barney...


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10 replies to this topic

#1 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 01:59 AM

...to the Blue Jays! Barney gets activated on Tuesday, so get on the phone Jed!

 

Everyone should be well-aware of Jose Reyes flipping his ankle during a slide, when his cleat stuck on the way into second base the other day and will be out for a significant amount of time. The Blue Jays just inquired about the Braves' Tyler Pastornicky, who is in AAA because of Simmons. Even with his weak offensive output, Barney would be an upgrade over Pastornicky, and I think we could get a top 20 prospect in return. Maybe RHSP Deck McGuire (14) or Catcher A.J. Jimenez (11) because apparently, we have 0 depth in the catching department. Moises Sierra and Anthony Gose could be an OF option for 2014.

 

I'm saying this because, Logan Watkins will be our legit, lead-off hitter in 2014 (although, he'll need to platoon with a lefty-crusher; we could possibly extend Alberto Gonzalez's contract-he's doing a good job so far this year (5th in OPS) and hits lefties better). Barney's bat is weak and his defense is his only plus asset. I'm sure we're well aware of who we want from the Blue Jays because of all the Garza trade rumors last year (and the Cubs matching up well with them).

 

2014 [Assuming we trade Soriano and keep Soler and Baez in the minors]

2B Logan Watkins (L) / Alberto Gonzalez

SS Starlin Castro

1B Anthony Rizzo (L) / Michael Morse [FA]

LF Michael Morse / Scott Hairston

CF Nate Schierholtz (L) / Moises Sierra [TRADE]

C Welington Castillo / Dioner Navarro (S)

RF Moises Sierra / Dave Sappelt

3B Luis Valbuena (L) / Josh Vitters (?)

 

If Brett Jackson turns around his AAA season, we don't extend Schierholtz.



#2 fromthemitten

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 02:41 AM

Jimenez looks good since he's blocked by Arebencia

 

Considering his whopping 7 games at center in the MLB level I do not want Scierholtz anywhere near there.



#3 King Jeff

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 05:50 AM

I have seen enough good things from this team so far, that I want to see what they are going to look like with Barney and Garza healthy.  I don't think the return on Barney will be that good at this point anyways. 



#4 hansman1982

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 08:13 AM

Re: Brett Jackson

 

I saw him Saturday night and it didn't look good.  It appeared (from my seat near the ICubs BP) that he was constantly whiffing under the ball and his swing just didn't look good. 



#5 #1lahairfan

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 09:40 AM

I have been wanting to trade Barney since he won the Gold Glove!

On the other side he offers the Cubs great value since we have control of him for 3 years after this one.

#6 willis

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 10:02 AM

Re: Brett Jackson

 

I saw him Saturday night and it didn't look good.  It appeared (from my seat near the ICubs BP) that he was constantly whiffing under the ball and his swing just didn't look good. 

 

As big of a fan of his as I am, I'm afraid he's doomed. Just another in a long line of failed Cub outfielders. I'm not sure what to do at this point. He seems to be declining and not having great ABs against sub par pitching. It's sad because we had high hopes for him.



#7 willis

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Posted 15 April 2013 - 10:20 AM

As far as trading Barney, I too would like to see this unit healthy and see what happens first. Bad decisions and poor bullpen results have led this team to 4-8, when really they should be 8-4 or 7-5.



#8 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 01:16 PM

Barney would be attractive to Tampa in deal for Price because Yunel Escobar ain't cutting it offensively at SS. Think of how much money they would save if:

 

Yunel Escobar (has 2 club options @ $5M each) is traded for controllable players

 

Ben Zobrist (has 2 club options @ $7M w/$2.5M buyout, $7.5M w/$0.5M buyout) is added with

David Price (estimated $16.2M in 3rd year of arbitration) in a trade w/the Cubs.

 

Tampa would be back down to their "more comfortable" $40M payroll.

 

Price + Zobrist to Cubs for:

2B/SS Barney, C Navarro (if they're in playoff contention), OF Jackson, 1B Vogelbach, RHSP Struck (or Loux), and OF Silva (or IF Lake).

 

2014 Cubs:

[13.0] LF Morse [FA]

[07.5] CF Murphy (L) [FA]

[02.0] RF Soler

[01.0] 1B Rizzo (L)

[07.0] 2B Zobrist (S)

[00.5] 3B Rohan

[05.0] SS Castro

[00.5] C Castillo

-36.5-

[00.5] OF Sappelt

[00.5] C Flores or Clevenger (L)

[01.0] IF Ransom

[00.5] CF Ha

[01.0] 3B Valbuena (L)

-3.5-

[16.5] SP Price (L)

[04.5] SP Samardzija

[11.0] SP Jackson

[01.0] SP Wood (L)

[10.0] SP Chamberlain, Hughes, Johnson, or Yoon [FA]

-43-

[00.5] LR Negrin

[00.5] LR Rusin or Raley (L)

[01.0] RP Bowden

[00.5] RP Return from DeJesus trade

[01.5] SU Russell (L)

[00.5] SU Return from Garza trade

[04.0] CL Fujikawa

-8.5-

$91.5M payroll

+ $10M deferred from Soriano trade

=

$101.5M payroll

 

Soler makes the team out of Spring Training...

LF Sappelt, CF Ha, RF Soler, 2B Zobrist vs. LHP



#9 Spencer

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 03:54 PM

We should ask for Wil Myers too, just to make sure the Cubs are getting a fair return.



#10 T C

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Posted 24 April 2013 - 04:38 PM

Mike Taylor (no relation), you seem to have this belief that other teams are just going to give away their best players for no freakin reason.

 

"Ben Zobrist + David Price for - 2B/SS Barney, C Navarro (if they're in playoff contention), OF Jackson, 1B Vogelbach, RHSP Struck (or Loux), and OF Silva (or IF Lake)."

 

How in the hell would this trade help the Rays?! I like how you only include Navarro if they're in playoff contention, which they'll totally be in if they were ever in position to trade Price and Zorilla. Let's look at this from a logical perspective (I'll go slow so you don't hurt yourself thinking)

 

Ben Zobrist - Average of 7 rWAR from 2009-2012, arguably TB's best position player

David Price - Average of 4.8 rWAR from 2010-2012, future $200mil Ace pitcher, arguably top 3 pitcher in baseball

 

Just right there, you're looking at ~ 12 wins that the Rays would be trading away JUST IN 2013, a staggering sum, valued at roughly $72 million in 2013 at $6 mil/win. If they're in a playoff race, that's impossible to give away. Over the rest of their contract, subtracting .5 WAR in 2013 for Zobrist and 1 full WAR in each subsequent year, and keeping Price's even since he's in his prime, this is what the value breakdown looks like assuming the trade is at the all star break (assuming: no Price extension is signed, $6mil/win, no inflation of value of the win or the dollar):

 

2013:

~3 wins from Zobrist for $2.75mil, ~3 wins from Price for $5 mil. Surplus Value: $28.25 mil

 

2014:

~6 wins from Zobrist for $7mil, ~5 wins from Price for $16 mil. Surplus: $44 mil

 

2015:

~5 wins from Zobrist for $7.5 mil. Surplus: $22.5 mil

 

Total Surplus: $94.75 million

 

What do you propose the Rays get in return? Multiple top 50 prospects? 8-10 legit prospects with one very good one headlining the deal? James Shields alone fetched a top-3 prospect and a top-50 SP prospect, and is a far inferior pitcher to Price, so you'd think they'd be getting a king's ransom for Price AND Zobrist

 

Darwin Barney - Average of 3 rWAR in 2 seasons as a starter

Dioner Navarro - Replacement level player, zero value, especially to a team with a top-2 defensive catcher in baseball already

Brett Jackson - Not a top 100 prospect anymore, floor is total bust, low ceiling, TB has Jennings already

Dan Vogelbach - Is like 3 years away from majors, not a top 100 prospect, especially as he's likely a DH only type

Struck - Almost completely worthless, ceiling of an inning eating 5th starter (same for Loux)

Silva - non-prospect, cannot take a walk, little-to-no power. Lake is a decent prospect but has yet to turn loud tools into baseball skills

 

Victor Wang has done some great research into the value of prospects here, and history has borne that, while teams are not running precisely on his numbers, he's in the right ball park, so I'll be using his numbers here to demonstrate the value in your deal.

 

Barney is, realistically, a 2.5-3 win player now at age 27, and is under control through 2016. At 3 wins at age 27 & 28, 2.5 at 29, he's worth $57 million (and only if you buy the lofty defensive numbers he's posted). During that time, he'll likely make around $15 million (gold gloves are worth a lot in arbitration), so he's a surplus of $42 million. Navarro isn't worth anything. Jackson is a B- prospect, so he's worth ~$3mil. Vogelbach is a B prospect, and worth about $5mil. Struck and Loux are old C prospects, so worth ~$1.5mil. Silva has no value. Lake is a C+ prospect, so he's worth about $1 mil.

 

Your deal's surplus value? $52.5 million. There's a $42.25 million dollar balance in favor of the Cubs, and that's assuming Price signs no extension and Darwin Barney is the best defensive 2B in years. It also ignores that quantity over quality is not something teams are a fan of. Your deal is so insanely far off that teams would boycott the Cubs front office if they ever presented that deal to the Rays.

 

What would look like a good deal for Zobrist+Price, assuming no extensions?

 

Barney - $42 mil surplus (this figure, the more I think about it, is absurdly high. Not because Darwin isn't a 3 win player, but because it ignores that teams pay much less for defensive wins than they do offensive wins. I'd probably bump Darwin down into the $20 mil maximum just based on what he'd probably get as a FA right now, but I have to play by my own rules)

Baez (Top 11-25 prospect) - $25 mil

Amora (Top 25-50 prospect) - $23.4 mil

Vogelbach (B Hitter) - $5mil

 

And that's without considering how much teams value the right to sign Price. For a team like the Cubs, the money is almost not a concern compared to how big of an opportunity it would be to get a top-flight starter on-board. How much is that worth to teams? $25 mil? More? If so, you're throwing Jackson, Lake and others into the trade too.

 

A trade for Zobrist AND Price would be prohibitively expensive in terms of prospects. That trade up there is only valid if the Rays like Barney, too, which there is no guarantee of. If they don't, Jackson, Lake, Acantara, and many, many others would have to be thrown into the mix as well



#11 Morken

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:41 AM

Barney would be attractive to Tampa in deal for Price because Yunel Escobar ain't cutting it offensively at SS. Think of how much money they would save if:
 
Yunel Escobar (has 2 club options @ $5M each) is traded for controllable players
 
Ben Zobrist (has 2 club options @ $7M w/$2.5M buyout, $7.5M w/$0.5M buyout) is added with
David Price (estimated $16.2M in 3rd year of arbitration) in a trade w/the Cubs.
 
Tampa would be back down to their "more comfortable" $40M payroll.
 
Price + Zobrist to Cubs for:
2B/SS Barney, C Navarro (if they're in playoff contention), OF Jackson, 1B Vogelbach, RHSP Struck (or Loux), and OF Silva (or IF Lake).
 
2014 Cubs:
[13.0] LF Morse [FA]
[07.5] CF Murphy (L) [FA]
[02.0] RF Soler
[01.0] 1B Rizzo (L)
[07.0] 2B Zobrist (S)
[00.5] 3B Rohan
[05.0] SS Castro
[00.5] C Castillo
-36.5-
[00.5] OF Sappelt
[00.5] C Flores or Clevenger (L)
[01.0] IF Ransom
[00.5] CF Ha
[01.0] 3B Valbuena (L)
-3.5-
[16.5] SP Price (L)
[04.5] SP Samardzija
[11.0] SP Jackson
[01.0] SP Wood (L)
[10.0] SP Chamberlain, Hughes, Johnson, or Yoon [FA]
-43-
[00.5] LR Negrin
[00.5] LR Rusin or Raley (L)
[01.0] RP Bowden
[00.5] RP Return from DeJesus trade
[01.5] SU Russell (L)
[00.5] SU Return from Garza trade
[04.0] CL Fujikawa
-8.5-
$91.5M payroll
+ $10M deferred from Soriano trade
=
$101.5M payroll
 
Soler makes the team out of Spring Training...
LF Sappelt, CF Ha, RF Soler, 2B Zobrist vs. LHP


If Escobar isn't cutting it offensively for Tampa Bay at SS, why would they turn to Barney - a 2B with a career .650 OPS - to replace him?

Mike, I admire the diligence you extend to every one of your posts, however, your proposal is of video game proportions.

The initial name to be proposed in any trade involving David Price, woud have to involve one of Baez/Soler/Almora. Add Zobrist to the deal, and you'd absolutely have to include 2 of the 3(which you may have to do for Price on hs own).




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