Tsuyoshi Wada’s Impressive Performance and Impending Contract Decision

tsuyoshi wada featureIn the eyes of many Chicago Cubs fans, Tsuyoshi Wada has too many strikes against him to matter going forward. He’s 33. He has no established track record of big league success. He doesn’t throw hard. He isn’t a “prospect.” He was just a minor league signing.

But, here’s the thing: the Cubs are going to need quality pitchers as well in 2015 as they will in 2019, and it turns out that 34-year-olds can pitch. Whether Wada factors into the Cubs’ “long”-term plans doesn’t really concern me right now. Instead, I want to know whether he can be a starting pitcher – or an asset – for the Cubs at any point after 2014. Why worry about the rest right now?

Watching him mow down one of the better lineups in baseball yesterday – after doing the same repeatedly in other starts this season – it’s hard to believe Wada can’t figure into the Cubs’ plans in 2015 (or in the offseason, should another team come calling desperately).

I won’t belabor the positive indicators that existed before Wada made his big league debut, but note them only as the starting point for this discussion: Wada was among the best pitchers in Japan for nearly 10 years before coming to the Orioles before the 2012 season. Before he could throw a single Stateside pitch in the bigs, he underwent Tommy John surgery. He didn’t start pitching competitively until halfway through 2013, and didn’t start pitching well until the very end of 2013. From there, the Orioles had a $5 million option, which they declined. The Cubs picked up Wada on a minor league deal, and he pitched exceptionally well in the PCL.

That is all to say, there was reason to believe Wada could be a legit big league arm this year, his age/velocity/injury/contract notwithstanding.

Since his debut, here’s what Wada has done: 45.2 IP, 2.56 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, 22.5% K rate, 6.0% BB rate. Those aren’t ace numbers, but no one’s asking Wada to be an ace. His .258 BABIP is low, but not necessarily unsustainable given his extreme fly ball tendencies. That’ll lead to more homers than average, but his 9.3% HR/FB rate is right around average – which means, although Wada gives up more fly balls than most (and, in turn, more homers than most, assuming an average HR/FB rate), he has so far succeeded in spite of the grievous harm that fly ball tendencies can bring.

That’s still a small sample, and he’s still got to show he can do it when teams get second, third, fourth, etc. looks at him. But, so far, he’s not just succeeding, he’s succeeding in a legitimate and sustainable way. I would expect a few more homers, and a lower strand rate (he’s leaving 83.3% on right now, which will likely come down), but the FIP and xFIP suggest Wada really could be a 3.50ish ERA guy going forward. That’s a nice back-end starter in any rotation.

If we assume that Wada, at 34 next year, can be this kind of back-end starter, the only question then is whether he’s worth the team picking up his option for 2015.

Unlike your typical player, an advanced Japanese arm like Wada isn’t going to sign a deal that permits a team to simply renew him at the Major League minimum just because he doesn’t have enough service time to qualify for arbitration or free agency. That makes sense, of course, because such a player, rather than playing in the States for $500,000 could simply go back to Japan and make quite a bit more.

Wada’s minor league deal, then, included a team option for 2015, as reported by multiple sources.* The amount of that option has not yet been reported, though I could take a pretty reasonable stab at it: $5 million. That was the amount of the 2014 team option on the original deal with the Orioles. If that’s the amount for which Wada was willing to extend his stay in the States then, it’s probably the upper limit of the option for the Cubs’, too. At least for the sake of discussion, and unless I hear otherwise, that’s what we’ll go with.

So, that’s the real question here: given what we’ve seen so far from Wada, is he worth $5 million or so in 2015?

Were his option much less than that, the answer would be obvious. At $5 million, it’s still probably a clear yes, but it’s a closer call. Ultimately, I think we’ll want to see what he does over the final month before saying for certain, but, if this really is Wada, then the Cubs will have to pick up his option and strongly consider him for the rotation entering the Spring.

Even if the rotation question isn’t clear, the option decision might be. Over 8 starts so far this year, Wada has been worth 0.7 WAR, according to FanGraphs. Playing the dangerous game of small-sample-extrapolation, and assuming Wada is the same guy next year he’s shown this year, we could say Wada could be worth 2.5 to 3.0 WAR in 2015. At $6 million per win, that’s $15 to $18 million in value.

In other words, if you believe this is Wada, and you project him to be this guy next year, he’d have quite a bit of surplus value in 2015, even at $5 million in salary. So, even if you were viewing Wada purely as an asset, rather than a clear rotation member, he’s a nice asset to have over the Winter. Once again, the option decision might be an easy one.

There’s still a lot of season left, and we’ll see what Wada shows the rest of the way. But it’s a story line to follow, particularly as the Cubs look to figure out their rotation heading into 2015.

*(After 2015, I believe the Cubs would still have control over Wada’s Stateside rights, rather than him reaching free agency. The catch, though, is that, at that point, if they tender him a contract, it would have to be for at least 80% of his current salary. So, if that salary was $5 million, the Cubs could keep him for $4 million in 2016, but you don’t actually reduce a guy’s salary if he played well (which he would have to if the Cubs wanted to keep him after 2015). This is all getting very hypothetical and academic. The essence is this: I believe the Cubs would still control Wada’s rights after 2015, but it would cost more than $5 million per year.)

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

The Stretch: 2024 MLB Season Preview

On Monday, during a team-building conversation with some of the Bleacher Nation and Betsperts Media Group folks, we discussed sports—shocking, I know—and Brian Twining asked the group what their favorite sport was. For me, it's baseball. There's no debate. I...

We Have to Talk About Some of the “Deals” the Cubs Sat Out in Free Agency

This week, in a conversation with Jon Greenberg at The Athletic, Cubs President Jed Hoyer made an honest and sober (but also moderately disappointing) admission about the 2024 Chicago Cubs: "We need to perform probably at or a little bit...

The Chicago Cubs Are Reportedly Now Worth Over $5 Billion

Given all the tumult in the baseball broadcasting world, and the uncertain future for that portion of revenues, you'd be forgiven for expecting that MLB franchise valuations would slow their recent surge. But, according to Sportico at least, you'd be...

Latest News

Los Angeles Chargers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Los Angeles Chargers enter the offseason with a new era dawning. After a disappointing season, they landed a marquee hire in Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his national championship win with Michigan. Hailed as the top coaching prospect, Harbaugh brings a...

Rangers vs. Cubs Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

The Texas Rangers (0-0) and the Chicago Cubs (0-0) square off on Thursday at Globe Life Field for Opening Day. First pitch is at 7:35 PM ET.The Rangers will call on Nathan Eovaldi against the Cubs and Justin Steele.Rangers vs....

Best NBA Prop Bets Today – March 28, 2024

The Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks take the court for one of two exciting matchups on the NBA slate today.Looking for NBA player prop bets for today's games? This article includes NBA player props for every matchup, so take...

UNC vs Alabama Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

We have a great matchup in the Sweet 16 between (1) North Carolina and (4) Alabama. Let's break down the odds, ATS records, and more for UNC vs Alabama as March Madness continues. Read More: Today's schedule and upset picks...

Seattle Seahawks Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Seattle Seahawks turn the page on a historic era as they enter the 2024 season without Pete Carroll at the helm for the first time since 2010. Carroll's impact on the franchise is undeniable, crafting a period of sustained...

Who Is In The Sweet 16? Updated Bracket, Odds to Win, and More

It has been a great March Madness so far and we have more great matchups in the Sweet 16. Check out what teams are in the Sweet 16, odds, and more as the college basketball season rolls on. Latest March...

Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

The Sweet 16 is here as March Madness brings us some great matchups tonight! Check out today's March Madness schedule along with game times, TV channels, and more as the college basketball season's biggest games continue. The Sweet 16 Begins...

2024 MLB Mock Draft: Opening Day Mock Draft Projections

Happy Opening Day! As the new baseball season begins, and hope is present among most fanbases, why not take a look at a new 2024 MLB Mock Draft? Various mock drafts meticulously analyze potential picks, emphasizing the abundance of talent...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Pac-12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 28

There is one game featuring a Pac-12 teams on the Thursday postseason college basketball schedule, the Clemson Tigers versus the Arizona Wildcats. Make sure you check out below for today's best bets!How to Bet on Pac-12 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best Pac-12...

more cubs news