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The 80 Rating - A project for anyone with more time than me


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46 replies to this topic

#31 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:45 PM

Because he walks a lot and crushes weak pitching, which I'm guessing there might be a lot of in San Diego's conference. Either way, if we do draft him and let him see AA pitching (and he mashes), he could be up as early as 2015 with that gaping hole (and OPS hole at 2B) at 3B.

 

2015:

2B Watkins (L)

RF Soler

1B Rizzo (L)

3B Bryant

LF Dickerson (L) acquisition from Rockies

SS Castro

CF Jackson (L) if he cuts down on his K rate

C Castillo



#32 Luke

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:48 PM

If there aren't busts, flame outs, or bums that were given this heavy solid medal prior to the draft then why isn't Bryant EVERYONES top pick?

 

Because of the mythos of the ace.  Aces are the quarterbacks of baseball.  They get the headlines.  The game, for a lot of the media, revolves around them.  



#33 MichiganGoat

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 07:56 PM

If there aren't busts, flame outs, or bums that were given this heavy solid medal prior to the draft then why isn't Bryant EVERYONES top pick?

 
Because of the mythos of the ace.  Aces are the quarterbacks of baseball.  They get the headlines.  The game, for a lot of the media, revolves around them.
But we all know about the QB bust, there has to be data on which players were given an 80-power rating. There have to be bust... Right? Yet nobody can find any of these players.

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#34 MichiganGoat

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 08:01 PM

And Mike aren't the talent scouts smart enough not to rate a player this high just because he's crushing weak competition? Their job is to assess the future MLB success of propects and they don't sprinkle 80-power ratings on every hard hitting player (or maybe they do that's what I'm hunting for here).

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#35 CubChymyst

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 08:10 PM

I usually see Sano listed with a hit tool in the 4.5 to 5.5 range.  3 sounds awfully low.

The 3 is Sano current rating according to on http://mlb.mlb.com/m...ts/watch/y2013/  they say his future rating is 5 though.  Might not have made that clear.



#36 Luke

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 08:26 PM

Yeah, they also have Baez and Soler at a current 4.  That doesn't quite add up either.

 

I'm wondering what all he's considering in terms of hit.



#37 CubChymyst

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 11:04 PM

Yeah, they also have Baez and Soler at a current 4.  That doesn't quite add up either.

 

I'm wondering what all he's considering in terms of hit.

Isn't that part of the problem, even though 80 grade is well defined determining those who qualify is subjective.  As I've been looking at information it seems there is a +/- 1 for quite a few grades depending on the source.



#38 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 18 May 2013 - 12:37 AM

And Mike aren't the talent scouts smart enough not to rate a player this high just because he's crushing weak competition? Their job is to assess the future MLB success of propects and they don't sprinkle 80-power ratings on every hard hitting player (or maybe they do that's what I'm hunting for here).


I'd say it would be easier to judge talent in a tough, competitive baseball conference. Hitting 30 homers, over .300, and a 1:1 k/bb is a great feat as an individual, but even better when it's done against top athletes. Don't get me wrong, players like Josh Hamilton feast on bad pitching and have made a career out of it, but you'd like to see those numbers against ranked opponents.

#39 T C

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 02:05 AM

I know Im late to this conversation, but it might be important to differentiate between 80 raw and 80 game skills. I think someone may have mentioned it earlier, but there is a big difference between raw tools and game skills. Many have said Baez has 80 raw, Sano has 8 raw, as does Gallo, but 80 game power is extraordinarily rare. I can really only think of Giancarlo Stanton as a guy who currently might be rated as an 80 game power type guy. You can have all the raw power in the world, but if you can't put the barrel on the ball it just isnt going to matter. Same goes with other tools too - Hamilton has 80+ grade speed (I know 80 s top of the scale, but it doesnt do him justice), but poor baserunning skills limit the utility of that tool.



#40 T C

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 02:07 AM

 

I usually see Sano listed with a hit tool in the 4.5 to 5.5 range.  3 sounds awfully low.

The 3 is Sano current rating according to on http://mlb.mlb.com/m...ts/watch/y2013/  they say his future rating is 5 though.  Might not have made that clear.

 

 

I wouldn't pay much attention to MLB's scouting stuff. If you're looking for the tool grades on top minor leaguers, BP has them for most of their top 10 prospect lists, and BA has this: http://www.baseballa...13/2614739.html



#41 T C

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 02:40 AM

 

If there aren't busts, flame outs, or bums that were given this heavy solid medal prior to the draft then why isn't Bryant EVERYONES top pick?

 

Because of the mythos of the ace.  Aces are the quarterbacks of baseball.  They get the headlines.  The game, for a lot of the media, revolves around them.  

 

 

This touches on it, but it is really a much more complicated issue than that. If Bryant were a sure-fire 3B, he'd be regarded even higher by most. However, many people think Bryant is a corner outfielder, and that greatly harms his value. There is also concern over the quality of pitching he is facing, and that puts doubt in the minds of many. It's easy to judge pitching in a vacuum, but judging hitters depends greatly on who they are facing and where are they are playing.

 

Guys like Appel have the "Ace" potential tag thrown on them, and while that does generate media hype, it's for a good reason. There are only about 10 Aces in baseball, and the only way to acquire them is through the draft or a trade that depletes your farm system. A guy who can throw 220+ innings with a high-2's/low-3's ERA is an extremely rare commodity, and has the ability to provide enormous value to your ballclub. Bryant may be low-ish-risk and good-upside, but you can find those players in free agency and through trades. Aces and #2's are extraordinarily rare and very difficult to come by, and if you get the chance to acquire one you're going to be very tempted to take that risk.

 

TL;DR: Aces are not available in free agency. Power-hitting corner outfielders are. I guess I really just take issue with you calling it a "mythos" in what reads as a mocking tone.



#42 T C

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 02:44 AM

 

And Mike aren't the talent scouts smart enough not to rate a player this high just because he's crushing weak competition? Their job is to assess the future MLB success of propects and they don't sprinkle 80-power ratings on every hard hitting player (or maybe they do that's what I'm hunting for here).


I'd say it would be easier to judge talent in a tough, competitive baseball conference. Hitting 30 homers, over .300, and a 1:1 k/bb is a great feat as an individual, but even better when it's done against top athletes. Don't get me wrong, players like Josh Hamilton feast on bad pitching and have made a career out of it, but you'd like to see those numbers against ranked opponents.

 

 

Exactly. It's very difficult to judge the utility of the hit tool and, with it, the power tool against weak competition. Until you see a guy face a bunch of top-level pitching, you can't really judge his ability to hit breaking balls and pitchers who can command their stuff very well.

 

You can, however, judge the command, control, and raw stuff of a pitcher no matter who they are facing.



#43 KCubsfan

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 05:16 PM

If there aren't busts, flame outs, or bums that were given this heavy solid medal prior to the draft then why isn't Bryant EVERYONES top pick?

 
Because of the mythos of the ace.  Aces are the quarterbacks of baseball.  They get the headlines.  The game, for a lot of the media, revolves around them.
 
This touches on it, but it is really a much more complicated issue than that. If Bryant were a sure-fire 3B, he'd be regarded even higher by most. However, many people think Bryant is a corner outfielder, and that greatly harms his value. There is also concern over the quality of pitching he is facing, and that puts doubt in the minds of many. It's easy to judge pitching in a vacuum, but judging hitters depends greatly on who they are facing and where are they are playing.
 
Guys like Appel have the "Ace" potential tag thrown on them, and while that does generate media hype, it's for a good reason. There are only about 10 Aces in baseball, and the only way to acquire them is through the draft or a trade that depletes your farm system. A guy who can throw 220+ innings with a high-2's/low-3's ERA is an extremely rare commodity, and has the ability to provide enormous value to your ballclub. Bryant may be low-ish-risk and good-upside, but you can find those players in free agency and through trades. Aces and #2's are extraordinarily rare and very difficult to come by, and if you get the chance to acquire one you're going to be very tempted to take that risk.
 
TL;DR: Aces are not available in free agency. Power-hitting corner outfielders are. I guess I really just take issue with you calling it a "mythos" in what reads as a mocking tone.

I like you said 80 game power is very rare which is what Bryant has. I have seen Bryant play a little less then most scouts but from what I have seen and heat from scouts he could handle 3B.

#44 FFP

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 07:03 PM

I usually see Sano listed with a hit tool in the 4.5 to 5.5 range. 3 sounds awfully low.

The 3 is Sano current rating according to on http://mlb.mlb.com/m...ts/watch/y2013/ they say his future rating is 5 though. Might not have made that clear.

I wouldn't pay much attention to MLB's scouting stuff. If you're looking for the tool grades on top minor leaguers, BP has them for most of their top 10 prospect lists, and BA has this: http://www.baseballa...13/2614739.html
Helpful link. Thanks, Tommy. Would you say those are raw or in game numbers?

#45 T C

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 09:55 PM

 

 

 

I usually see Sano listed with a hit tool in the 4.5 to 5.5 range. 3 sounds awfully low.

The 3 is Sano current rating according to on http://mlb.mlb.com/m...ts/watch/y2013/ they say his future rating is 5 though. Might not have made that clear.

I wouldn't pay much attention to MLB's scouting stuff. If you're looking for the tool grades on top minor leaguers, BP has them for most of their top 10 prospect lists, and BA has this: http://www.baseballa...13/2614739.html
Helpful link. Thanks, Tommy. Would you say those are raw or in game numbers?

 

No clue. Power is probably raw, utility is directly tied to hit tool anyway. speed raw/not a whole ton of difference there anyway. defense/arm are both in-game things. Honestly can't tell if these are projections or current scores.






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