I can agree with that. The guy's position is a position of need. And the Cubs have proven that last year that they will not always go for the pitcher in the first round. I still want Gray though if he is available.
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No superstar pick in draft, do Cubs draft for under slot????
Posted 02 June 2013 - 06:43 PM
The safest bet is Bryant. The historical numbers are pretty clear on that.
If I remember right, something like 48% of college hitters taken in the first round reach the majors. That's the highest arrival rate of any draft demographic, and the numbers get better the higher up in the draft you get.
Posted 02 June 2013 - 08:05 PM
Well you follow this more than me. I have no doubt that historically this is correct. It just seems most things I've read point to Appell being the safest bet to make the majors.
Right now, he is.
Ten minutes after he blows out his elbow is a different story. And that's the risk with all pitching prospects.
Posted 03 June 2013 - 06:05 PM
I keep reading all this on the draft and want to offer up my theory. This is the #2 pick in the draft. If I was drafting, I would want the best pick with the least chance of screwing up. If I draft a position player and he is in the lineup hitting 30 HR's, does anyone care if two other highly drafted pitchers are also doing well?
On the other hand, if you draft one of those pitchers and he blows his arm out, you are going to hear and feel a lot of shoulda, coulda... If top college kids who are position players have the statistical highest upside of living up to their projections, why not take the one who is closest to the sure thing?
The issue is not Appel or Grey, but to me a highly regarded position player who grades high versus a pitcher. Personally, I go for the position player. When the team comes together you then go buy another Matt Garza in the free agent market. How many good pitchers are available as free agents versus a top quality 3B who is not past his prime?
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