Well the draft is over and we have a new injection of hope to keep us going. I read the Cub post on the new kids and they supplied a link to the top 20 kids in the minors:
I tried to post the link but the system will not let me. I would urge all die hard fans to read the reports on our top 20 prospects currently with this in mind. First, start with their age.
Brett Jackson is 24 and has 55K's in 170 AB's. He is ranked #4.
Vitters is #14 and is soon to be 24. The write up is like all PR, made to sound positive but his defense is sub-par.
Vogelback is younger at 20. As he went to the same high school my youngest daughter did, I followed him a bit. A top scout told me he was quite surprised he was taken so high in the draft. He was described to me as very non-athletic, weighed close to 280# in high school and has a constant battle to keep his weight down. He is a below average runner, average fielder at best, and it is his power numbers that will give him a shot at making the major leagues. Couple the fact that most DH's are veterans who have a history record of slugging, and in the later years of their contract; Vogelbach has a real challenge in front of him. I watched him a few times in spring training and he is the guy that you say is running like he is carrying a piano on his back. That means a lot of double plays down the road.
My point is this. Personally I would suggest the Cubs trade all three of them if they can garner some value. Honestly, there are a few kids who are late bloomers but those who are really good are in the major league by the time they are 24.
The college kids have a different challenge. They come out of college at 22-23 and have to move through the system more quickly. Note Darwin Barney signed out of college and made it through the system in around three years. He is already in his late 20's as he was born in November, 1985.
The statistics are this. Out of every 100 kids drafted and signed, four make it to the major leagues, and two qualify for the pension plan. If you have a 50 player draft (including international kids), then statistically 2 kids should turn out to be good and one really good. Now the 1985 Braves and the 1989 Cubs roster was loaded with kids that came through the system so you can beat those odds.
At the same time, when I see the projected 2014-2015 lineups, I take them with a grain of salt. We have seen too many of them over the years with names like Luis Montanez, Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, Bobby Hill, He Sop Choi and others.
I would be really delighted if Almora, Soler, Baez and now Bryant live up to their expectations. At the same time, there are kids like Castro who will power through the system that are not on too many folks list at the moment. Hell, if half of our pitchers with Tommy John surgery come back and pitch well, we should jump for joy.
Sure don't want to come off as negative; however I have seen too many Felix Pie's and Corey Patterson's who were going to be our saviors and we were told they were young and we could pencin their name in the lineup card for a decade .