4 replies to this topic

[Oswego Chris]

This is not one of my silly and obscure posts.(well, you may find it silly) This is an actual, serious attempt to look at the 2012 salary of the Cubs.(with the help of the awesome site: Cot's Baseball Contracts)

I have broken the team down into 3 groups. Some of this is estimated, but upon reading you should see that Theo and the boys will have more $ and flexibility than we have seen around these parts since 2007. In the unlikely event that Ramirez and Pena accept arb, that would tack on about 29-32 million.(yikes!)

GUARANTEED MONEY AND DEAD, DEAD WEIGHT

ALFONSO SORIANO 19 M
CARLOS ZAMBRANO 18 M
RYAN DEMPSTER 14 M
CARLOS MARMOL 7 M
MARLON BYRD 6.5 M
SEAN MARSHALL 3.1 M
JEFF SPELLCHECK(FORMER ND WR) 2.6 M
CARLOS SILVA( ARE U F'ING KIDDING) 2 M
TOTAL FOR GROUP 1 72.2 M

GROUP 1 ANALYSIS- Yes, it is very disgusting. 72.2 million for a solid lefty reliever, an erractic(possibly electric) closer, a decent RHP with upside, a perfect fourth OF, Dempster and the rest is a big heaping leftover pile of Hendry/Zell/Tribune Sh%^!

THE ARB BOYS '11 SAL estimated '12 SAL

MATT GARZA 5.95 M, 2012 est 7-10 M
GEO SOTO 3 M, 2012 est 4-5 M
JEFF BAKER 1.175 M, 2012 est 1.5-3 M
KOYIE HILL .850 M, 2012 est go away!
RANDY WELLS .475 M, 2012 est .750-1 M
BLAKE DEWITT .460 M , 2012 est .750- 1 M
TOTALS 11.9 M 2012 EST 15-17 M

GROUP 2 ANALYSIS- Lots and lots of guesswork here. I am assuming the Cubs non-tender the great Koyie Hill. These are estimates, but salaries do not go down in arbitration. I would wager these numbers are(bad pun) in the ballpark. Big, Big decisions here: Trade Garza? Trade Soto? Does Theo view Baker and Wells as cheap usuable parts? If the Cubs don't trade Garza, I would advise them(assuming they call me) to try and extend Garza until 2014, cost controlling the next two years of ARB for one more year of team control.

THE CONTROLLABLE CHEAPIES(these salaries are a bit estimated..due to new CBA)

STARLIN CASTRO 475,000
TYLER COLVIN 475,000
ANDREW CASHNER 450,000
JAMES RUSSELL 430,000
DARWIN BARNEY 430,000
TOTAL FOR GROUP 3 2.6 M

GROUP 3 ANALYSIS- This is much more fun to look at. In this group we have one bona-fide stud, a decent young situational lefty, and a potential big, big arm in the rotation or more likely bullpen. If I am Theo(and sometimes in my dreams I am!), this is the year Colvin proves to be a player or a bust, and Barney is on the team as the BACK-UP middle infielder.

OVERALL ANALYSIS- In the 3 groups you have 18 players totalling around 91 million in salary. Last year's MLB budget was 135 million, so that puts the Cubs roughly(extremely roughly) about 44 million less than last year. However if Pena and Ramirez decide to accept ARB, that number goes down to around 14 million.(double yikes!)

We Cub fans are hoping, wishing, praying, that there will be much, much turnover from the '11 roster and more than likely there will be. However, it is unrealistic to think we are going to get salary relief from that first group unless it is trading valuable parts like Marmol or Byrd. Yes, most of us want Soriano and Zambrano gone, but to think we will get more than pennies on the dollar is unrealistic.

Call me crazy, call me a kool-aid drinker, but I think the writing off of 2012 and shouting "play the kids!" is incredibly premature. There are many variables and possibilities that we just don't know yet. I think we could see a competitive roster without exposing some of our not quite ready prospects. If you look for movable "assets", there are some: Marmol, Soto, Marshall, Byrd, Baker, Smard(sp)...maybe more) Just remember, for all those posts wanting to trade Big Z and Sori, they are toxic assets that we will more than likely have to eat or get worse toxic assets in return.( I am looking at you Chone Figgins!)

The next 3 months should be fun...but it is time for "The Theotles" to get to work.

[MichiganGoat]

Great work as always Chris.

With 40M to work with and another 30-40M coming off the books after 2012 signing Fielder makes sense. With the the new draft restrictions **sigh** the Cubs must make a serious run. He is too good a hitter (the .400 OBP is what really impresses me) to ignore and if the Cubs want to championship competitive in 2014-15 the Cubs need his bat plus he will just be turning 30 and still in his prime.

Grab an inning eating SP and cheap 3B with the remaining money after Fielder and go after a top SP pitcher next year.

That my Theotle thoughts for the day

[NebCub]

If we were to trade marmol, soto and soriano(assuming we save around $4M) we would be approaching $60M we would have available. That we would have almost half of our payroll available to us by trading from our strengths is the biggest reason I see us being big players in FA all around.

[Brett]

Great stuff, Chris. If the Cubs could find a way to move Soriano and Zambrano, and save just $8 million total in the process for 2012, I'd feel highly confident about the team's ability to make some wise, impact moves for 2012 in free agency and in trade (with more money available, it's easier to make a trade when you don't have the best prospects to play with).

[Oswego Chris]

thanks Brett...and thanks for reminding me about Koyie Hill's hopefully non tender status....