I am not going to sit here and argue about this because neither one of us is going to change our minds. I think he is on the cusp of being an Ace and you think he already is one. We are really splitting hairs. I will leave on this. K/9 is not going to be appreciably changed by a so-called 4th out, WAR is based off of FIP (which takes the fielding out of it), IP is based on a pitcher doing well late into a ball game, and LOB% is mainly due to the pitchers ability.
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Samardzija is an Ace (le sigh)
Posted 29 June 2013 - 01:17 PM
I will leave on this. K/9 is not going to be appreciably changed by a so-called 4th out, WAR is based off of FIP (which takes the fielding out of it), IP is based on a pitcher doing well late into a ball game, and LOB% is mainly due to the pitchers ability.
*ERA can be drastically affected by a fourth out (AKA error). See the difference between ER's and R's. There is no reason to think that K/9 are THAT different from ER/9 (ERA). When you are dealing with 0.whatever differences between the guys in X place on a certain list then that becomes significant enough to note. A mere 10 extra K's either way on a 200 IP season would be 0.45 K/9 difference. 0.45 difference either way on Samardzija's 9.73 this season would mean 9.28 (south--if he has a good defense taking K opportunities away) and 10.18 (north--if he has a bad defense). 10.18 would lead the NL at this point and 9.28 would be 5th.
And 10 extra (or fewer) K's on a 200 IP season is, IMHO, smaller than what you would be dealing with when you have a high K pitcher and a very good/poor defensive team. I do agree, however, that compared to the other points (IP, WAR, LOB%) the K/9 issue is minor.
*WAR is FIP but war is ALSO IP. IP is affected by good/bad fielders, good/bad run support and organisational philosophy. All three of those factors work against Samardzija. He has had bad fielding, shitty run support (he was next to last in Run Support in '12 and only 12 runs in his most recent 7 IP keeps him from being awful this year) and the team's organisational philosophy will not allow him to accumulate high P/G (gaining IP) ESPECIALLY when the team is playing for last place.
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