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A Realstic Look at the Trade Value of Mr. Alfonso Soriano


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#1 Oswego Chris

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 04:34 PM

Bleacher Nation is a wonderful site. I love the constant flow of Cub talk. However, I must admit I find the frequent posts regarding the trading of Alfonso Soriano to be a bit....too hopeful. So I decided to do a bit of research and see if I am too cynical, or others are drinking the Cubbie Kool-Aid.

Simple economics tells us that for us to trade Alfonso, there must be demand. Alfonso is the supply. Last year at the age of 35, Alfonso supplied 26 HR's and 88 RBI's. That is pretty much where the good news ends. He supplied a .244 avg, 2 stolen bases, a meager 27 walks, and 113 strikeouts. He did have a .759 OPS(not horrible), but the .289 OBP that was a part of that was pretty bad. His fielding percentage was .965, which was well below the league average for LF, .986. Range is very debatable with all sorts of new sabre-stats, but what is not debatable is his extreme fear of the left field wall.

Let's now analyze the demand side. I am going to look at each team and guage their interest based on a number of factors. 0 means no interest, 5 means very high interest(of which I can forecast right now, there will be none. So, team by team, here we go:

THE ENTIRE NATIONAL LEAGUE- Interest level= 0. You could have argued for the Giants in a Zito for Sori swap, but after trading Johnathon Sanchez, no. These teams have seen him for the last 5 years in LF. OK, so realistically we have just eliminated 15 of the 30 teams, so now let's turn to the AL....where someone must be able to use him as a DH...right?....right?....please?

BALTIMORE ORIOLES=2 Ahhh, Jim Hendry's old dumping grounds. Last year's DH Vlad is a FA, but their OF is crowded and they have Chris Davis and other possibilities.

BOSTON RED SOX=1 Highly, highly doubtful but fill in your own Theo Compensation gag.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX=1 Plagued with own bad contracts, might consider him for Adam Dunn.

CLEVELAND INDIANS=0 Travis Hafner signed for 2 more years at DH.

DETROIT TIGERS=0 Plenty of outfielders who can actually field, and Victor Martinez at DH.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS=0 Just what a young rebuildinig team needs! No way....Butler and Hosmer have position filled.

LA ANGELS=3 He would be an upgrade over Bobby Abreau, but lots of big money on books. Still, they need O-fence.

MINNESOTA TWINS=0 Considering they get rid of guys(i.e. Delmon Young) for not playing the "Twins Way"(taking pitches, hitting behind runners, etc), I am sure they would love him.

NEW YORK YANKEES=0 They didn't want him when he was supposed to be good. Seriously though, too much offense already, no need.

OAKLAND A'S=0 Did you read or see Moneyball?

SEATTLE MARINERS=3 Wow, I am learning from my own research, this an extremely offensively challenged team. If they don't land Prince, they may be desperate.

TAMPA BAY RAYS=1 Trying to resign Johnny Damon, highly doubt they would think about Sori.

TEXAS RANGERS=0 They have offense coming out of their ears! Too many offensive guys to mention.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS= 1 Lind at 1B, Encarcion had a nice year at DH last year....don't see it.


So, its actually better than I thought. 2 or 3 teams that might actually have interest! Feel free to berate me for my cynicism, but I think this is fairly accurate. Angels, Mariners, or Orioles....that's about it.

#2 T C

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 05:43 PM

OAKLAND A'S=0 Did you read or see Moneyball?


This made me laugh far too hard. But I completely agree, there is no chance we get anything other than a few million in salary relief for him, and there is a limited market for him, too. Quite frankly, it would be one hell of a deal if we could pawn him off for $10 million total in salary relief.

#3 Brett

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 07:29 PM

Another great post (seriously, I keep saying it, and I keep getting jammed up: I fully intend to bump some of these to the front page).

I'd probably quibble on a few of the teams (Rays would consider him for peanuts, Yanks thought about maybe considering him for a couple seconds last year, Twins have a lot of turnover on the roster), but for the most part, solid.

There's no doubt that the Angels, Orioles and Mariners are the most logical options. But, if you throw in the maybes, and then account for the fact that teams could look quite a bit different in two weeks, there are landing spots. The return will be shit - it will be a few million bucks a year and a nothing prospect or two (or a bad contract swap).

#4 Oswego Chris

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 07:59 PM

thanks Brett...yeah I was probably a little harsh..love your "Yankees considered him for a couple seconds last year"

#5 King Jeff

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Posted 30 November 2011 - 12:12 PM

You have to add the Astros to the AL now, even though they already have a poor fielding, vastly over paid left fielder who should be a DH.

#6 hansman1982

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Posted 30 November 2011 - 02:08 PM

I would say that you can get anyone to take on anything for the right price. Now that I have that cliche out of the way, I think it will settle somewhere between $2-4M a year in relief which will pay for half of DeJesus's salary and free up a slot to get Colvin serious playing time until June 1.

#7 King Jeff

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Posted 30 November 2011 - 09:54 PM

I don't think Colvin should be handed any kind of full time job right off the bat. I wouldn't mind seeing him in a platoon with someone, but I didn't see very much improvement out of him last year, and he didn't look like an everyday player.

#8 ncsujuri

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Posted 02 December 2011 - 05:23 PM

Chris, the only thing you didn't take into account is what difference (if any) it would make if the Cubs were to eat 50-75% of what is owed on Sori. In my opinion that alone might be enough to make some of those 0's turn into 1's pretty quickly.

Here's a kool-aid scenario for you: Soriano to the BOSOX for Crawford. Yes he's owed more money for a longer turn so we might be just prolonging our agony, but my bet is he didn't just suddenly forget how to play baseball last year and he was pressing too hard. If the Red Sox want out of his contract badly enough, which they may depending on what you read and where, they might pull the trigger on this one.

 - It's a great day for a ballgame, LET'S PLAY TWO!





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