The Successes of Jon Lester’s Opening Night

jon lester cubsBecause there’s been no shortage of news since Opening Night (bathrooms, postponed games, Starlin Castro hubbub, etc…), Jon Lester’s dead arm setback during Spring Training may have fallen off your radar. If you recall, back on March 20, we all freaked out a little to learn that Lester was scratched from his Spring Training start as a precaution. Then, we displayed cautious optimism after his Minor League starts went well enough. And finally, we breathed a sigh of relief to learn he was all set to pitch on Opening Night.

However, I think it’s fair to say that Lester’s first game as a Cub may not have gone exactly how we envisioned – causing us to lose site of the bigger picture victory: Lester reached his pitch count, hit normal velocity, and exited the game healthy.

This spring, Lester received far fewer competitive-ish innings in preparation for the season than a typical pitcher would hope to get. So in actuality, it may be more reasonable to examie Lester’s Opening Night performance as something in-between an actual, meaningful game, and a final Spring Training tune-up. Of course, unlike a Spring Training game, Lester was doing everything he could to win, as opposed to working on various things. But if this caused you to be disappointed by the results, you may be missing some overall context.

If Opening Night were a final Spring tune-up, what would be some of the key, underlying things to take away from the start? The most important, for a veteran like Lester, would be pitch count, pitch mix, velocity and health. Additionally, if I had to scout the stat line, I’d focus on peripheral statistics (BABIP, BBs, Ks, and FIP) more than the less predictable/controllable outcomes like ERA. Given those parameters, Lester’s first appearance was, more or less, a success.

Pitch Count

Over his short debut, Lester threw 89 pitches (57 strikes) in 4.1 innings. Given that he had just reached over 80 pitches in one start (his last in Spring Training), 90-100 pitches was exactly the target (max) to shoot for.

Pitch Mix

Reminding us how he can continue to be effective even late into his career, Lester threw five different pitches for strikes Sunday night (Fastball, Sinker, Changeup, Curveball, and a Cutter). Using Brooks Baseball, we can see that he relied most heavily on his fastball and cutter, which is pretty typical for Lester. Even in a small sample, it’s encouraging to see the full use of his repertoire – one of his biggest strengths.

Velocity

If Lester was experiencing any discomfort or lack of sharpness Sunday night, he didn’t let it affect his velocity. His fastball averaged 92.6 MPH, 0.2 MPH faster than his career average, and it maxed out just under 96 MPH. His cutter, Lester’s second most used pitch, matched his career average velocity exactly at 88.7 MPH, and topped out at 92.6 MPH.

Health

By all accounts, including his own, Lester felt fine after the game. In what’s becoming typical Lester fashion, he assumed full responsibility for his start, and did not blame the outcome of the game on anything but his own performance.

Performance

At first blush, the stat line doesn’t inspire too much confidence: 8H, 3ER, 4.1IP (6.23 ERA) and a loss. But we know that stats like ERA and win-loss record can be entirely misleading, and nearly useless without context. So let’s look at some other stats from the game to see if he can get the whole picture. Your obligatory SMALL SAMPLE SIZE warning goes here. We’re just having a discussion.

Starting simply, Lester issued only two walks, but struck out six Cardinals. A pitcher’s K/BB ratio is very important and predictive of future success, and 6 to 2 is pretty solid. If you’re curious about the rates, those two walks were probably about one too many (9.1%), but he made up for it with strikeouts (27.3%). Lester may not have pitched for too long, but when he did he made it count. If you’re wondering, then, how he exited with a 6.23 ERA, your answer is “because of an insanely high BABIP and unlucky hit sequencing.”

On Opening Night, Lester gave up 8 hits in his 4.1 innings of work while carrying an unusually high .571 BABIP. I know many of you dislike using “luck” as an excuse for poor performance, but the truth is, you simply are not likely to see Lester face that kind of BABIP every time he goes out. If one or two of those hits happen to fall into a Cubs glove (and there were at least three bloopers that easily could have been caught), the final line may have looked quite different.

Lester’s FIP (a stat that is used to identify how well a pitcher pitched based solely on the things he can control) tells a much different story than his ERA. At 1.16, Lester’s FIP was actually much lower (better) than we should probably expect when he actually amasses a meaningful sample. Also, we can’t just assume Lester deserved to have an ERA to match that – he was hit pretty hard – but that FIP does show that his poor final stat line may not have been entirely his doing, or entirely unnerving.

At the end of the day, this was just one start for Lester – who was not afforded the luxury of having a full spring to prepare for the season. Given that he was able to reach his pitch count, throw all of his pitches (at the right velocities) and still have strong peripherals, I am more than happy with the results.

The number one takeaway from Opening Night is that Lester is healthy, and nothing in his performance necessarily predicts anything other than the season ahead that he always would have had, regardless of the dead arm.

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

The Stretch: 2024 MLB Season Preview

On Monday, during a team-building conversation with some of the Bleacher Nation and Betsperts Media Group folks, we discussed sports—shocking, I know—and Brian Twining asked the group what their favorite sport was. For me, it's baseball. There's no debate. I...

We Have to Talk About Some of the “Deals” the Cubs Sat Out in Free Agency

This week, in a conversation with Jon Greenberg at The Athletic, Cubs President Jed Hoyer made an honest and sober (but also moderately disappointing) admission about the 2024 Chicago Cubs: "We need to perform probably at or a little bit...

The Chicago Cubs Are Reportedly Now Worth Over $5 Billion

Given all the tumult in the baseball broadcasting world, and the uncertain future for that portion of revenues, you'd be forgiven for expecting that MLB franchise valuations would slow their recent surge. But, according to Sportico at least, you'd be...

Reds Second Baseman Matt McLain Had Shoulder Surgery

The injury to Matt McLain's shoulder issue obviously wound up being worse than he and the Cincinnati Reds had been hoping. The damage to his left (non-throwing) labrum ultimately required surgery: https://twitter.com/m_sheldon/status/1772993402604339478 When the hope is that a guy can...

Cubs Actually Getting a Whole Lot of Votes to Win the NL Central

ESPN dropped its big season preview, and included were a set of divisional predictions by way of their writers, editors, and analysts voting. There's nothing in the way of proof or certainty there, but with 26 voters, I do like...

Latest News

Pac-12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 28

There is one game featuring a Pac-12 teams on the Thursday postseason college basketball schedule, the Clemson Tigers versus the Arizona Wildcats. Make sure you check out below for today's best bets!How to Bet on Pac-12 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best Pac-12...

Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Tampa Bay Rays look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-135) in a season-opening matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on MLB Network, live from Tropicana...

Astros vs. Yankees Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Houston Astros look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-156) in a season-opening matchup with the New York Yankees. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on YES, live from Minute Maid Park.Houston's...

Tigers vs. White Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Detroit Tigers begin their season as -181 favorites in a road tilt against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on BSDET.Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit while Garrett Crochet is Chicago's starter for the contest.Tigers...

Reds vs. Nationals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Cincinnati Reds begin their season as -154 favorites in a home tilt against the Washington Nationals on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on MASN2.Cincinnati's Frankie Montas gets the start, and he'll go against Washington's Josiah Gray.Reds vs. Nationals...

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Los Angeles Dodgers (1-1) will look to Will Smith, red hot after a four-hit game, to lead them in a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals (0-0) on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on BSMW. The Dodgers are -232...

Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Miami Marlins look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-133) in a season-opening matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on Sportsnet PT, live from LoanDepot park.Miami's Jesus...

Padres vs. Giants Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The San Francisco Giants (0-0) are the underdogs on the moneyline (-106) in Thursday's contest against the San Diego Padres (1-1). Game time is set for 4:10 PM ET on NBCS-BA. The Giants are favored against the spread in this...

Twins vs. Royals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Minnesota Twins look to start their season with a win as road favorites (-122) in a season-opening matchup with the Kansas City Royals. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on BSN, live from Kauffman Stadium.Pablo Lopez...

Orioles vs. Angels Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Baltimore Orioles are moneyline favorites (-192) to begin their season with a home win over the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday at 3:05 PM ET, live on BSW.Baltimore's Corbin Burnes and Los Angeles' Patrick Sandoval have been named the...

more cubs news