Jump to content





Bleacher Nation is on Facebook, and you should totally "Like" us:
 


Bleacher Nation is also on Twitter, and you should totally follow us:




Upcoming Calendar Events

There are no forthcoming calendar events

Today's birthdays

No members are celebrating a birthday today

Photo

PHASE TWO...not Free Agents


  • Please log in to reply
16 replies to this topic

#1 Oswego Chris

Oswego Chris

    Bleacher Hero

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 605 posts
  • Twitter:oswegochris23
  • LocationOswego, Illinois

Posted 23 July 2013 - 05:13 AM

I am always amazed at the depth of knowledge of most fans on this board. After the Garza trade, and future July moves, the Cubs farm system will be at a point it has not been for awhile. I read many fans posts pointing to 2015, 2016, or even 2017 as to when this team will be ready to compete. I am not so sure we will have to wait that long.

When Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer came on board, they made no secret about the dearth of "assets" they had. Now they have them. I think Phase 1 of their plan may be about complete. Here is my hope as to what Phase 2 will entail.

The common perception is that the Cubs will let all of these great prospects develop, they will all come up, and then the Cubs will open up the checkbook and sign some free-agents to put the team over the top. There are two main reasons that this idea is flawed:

One, the days of winning by signing free agents are over. Teams have evolved(it actually started with the Indians of the mid-90s) and good players usually do not reach free agency until past their prime. Look at the players signed on the wrong side of 30...Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, and half of the Dodgers...tons of money tied up in eroding skills. Just take a gander at the guys set to be free this winter...you want the Cubs to spend big bucks and lock up Robinson Cano for 7 years? Good luck with that.

The second unrealistic perception...that all of these prospects will make it. I read posts all of the time, stating things like- wait until our outfield of Almora, Bryant and Soler, and we will have Szcur and Baez and Alcantara and....on and on. The truth is, not all of these guys will pan out.

Now before you get angry....even though they won't all pan out...the Cubs have done a masterful job acquiring these guys, and here is what I hope Phase 2 will be...trading some of them. I hope Phase 2 involves finding young guys who are already under contract and acquiring them. Here is an example(note, this is just an example)

Look at the South Side...the White Sox are in full rebuild(they may not know it yet)...Chris Sale is signed to a team friendly deal...what if the Cubs offered say(this is not a real suggestion, just an example!) Pierce Johnson, Vogelbach and Almora for Sale, or for a player like Stanton from Miami...these are the types of deals I see taking place in Phase 2. The Cubs will take stock of all there assets...which are mostly of the low A to high A variety, and turn some of them into current MLB players under contract. The key is scouting your own talent, and knowing who will develop, and who to deal.

Or you can tie up a bunch of money and watch Robinson Cano become a left fielder, or Jacoby Ellsbury sit on the DL.

@BBCG104Reasons

#2 Timothy Scarbrough

Timothy Scarbrough

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 48 posts
  • LocationFayetteville, AR

Posted 23 July 2013 - 07:01 AM

I don't know if the Marlins would be interested, but I'd rather we trade a package like that for Jose Fernandez than Stanton. But I do think that this is what the next step is. Using prospects to acquire other teams Rizzo's  , Castro's, and Samarjidza's. I imagine the front office has decide which prospects they want to keep out of the big four and which they think wouldn't kill them to trade.



#3 CubChymyst

CubChymyst

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 426 posts
  • LocationManhattan, Kansas

Posted 23 July 2013 - 07:57 AM

Scouting your own talent is something the Braves seem to have done extremely will with their pitching.  It is rare you see a braves pitcher that has been traded do well.  I'll be happy if the front office gets anywhere above 50 percent of the prospects to keep versus trade right.



#4 wvcubsfan

wvcubsfan

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 397 posts
  • LocationLittle Rock, AR

Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:05 AM

Phase 2A:  Irrate fans set up online protests because front office traded away their favorite minor leaguer and the new player doesn't have enough belly fire.  Fast forward 3 years and all moves that worked out positive said fan was for and those that didn't are discussed ad naseum on the front page.



#5 Cerambam

Cerambam

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 261 posts
  • Twitter:cerambam1736
  • Facebook:michael Anthony

Posted 23 July 2013 - 12:41 PM

I like this cause it makes me happy



#6 calicubsfan007

calicubsfan007

    The Guy Who Came Back From the Dead

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 540 posts
  • LocationWherever I Am, There I Am

Posted 23 July 2013 - 04:19 PM

Phase 2A:  Irrate fans set up online protests because front office traded away their favorite minor leaguer and the new player doesn't have enough belly fire.  Fast forward 3 years and all moves that worked out positive said fan was for and those that didn't are discussed ad naseum on the front page.

Hhahaha, how many times have we seen that happen now? Not so much referring to your example as much as referring to making trades for young guys or releasing veterans.  Seems like we get a ton of those phase 2's there in that case.



#7 Kygavin

Kygavin

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 177 posts
  • Twitter:@kygavin
  • LocationBloomington, IN

Posted 23 July 2013 - 04:31 PM

Yes yes yes. Very well put and I would imagine this is the next step. Also I doubt Fernandez moves. He is still way too cheap for even the Marlins to move



#8 calicubsfan007

calicubsfan007

    The Guy Who Came Back From the Dead

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 540 posts
  • LocationWherever I Am, There I Am

Posted 23 July 2013 - 06:54 PM

Don't forget the Marlins are quite stupid though.



#9 chirogerg1

chirogerg1

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 95 posts

Posted 23 July 2013 - 07:28 PM

The Marlins will provide us with all the free agents we will ever need. Jose Fernandez will reach free agency at 27 I think, which is virtually unseen these days. Yelich too. But, they will trade all these guys away and watch them become Miguel Cabreras anyway.



#10 calicubsfan007

calicubsfan007

    The Guy Who Came Back From the Dead

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 540 posts
  • LocationWherever I Am, There I Am

Posted 23 July 2013 - 09:19 PM

The Marlins will provide us with all the free agents we will ever need. Jose Fernandez will reach free agency at 27 I think, which is virtually unseen these days. Yelich too. But, they will trade all these guys away and watch them become Miguel Cabreras anyway.

Exactly.



#11 fromthemitten

fromthemitten

    sleeps in too late to answer the calendar trivia

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,470 posts
  • Twitter:fromthemitten
  • Locationin a van down by the river

Posted 28 July 2013 - 12:01 AM

On free agency, you gotta get those undervalued guys.  Hendry's best moves were stuff like picking up Jimmy Edmonds, Mark DeRosa, Neifi Perez, etc and not the big name guys.  Theo and Jed did it with "Holtz and DeJesus recently.  Big guys gotta come up through the system or via trades in their prime.



#12 Rizzo1684

Rizzo1684

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 54 posts
  • LocationTatooine

Posted 28 July 2013 - 08:16 AM

I love this post!!!! just wanted to throw that out there.  Looking at the moves the front office is making it seems they are targeting players that will make an impact as soon as next year in trades.  The only point I don't agree with the OP is if the cubs could get Cano for 7 years then we would be jumping for joy.  No way he signs for under 8 years and It will probably be 9.  I am very excited to see what the front office does in free agency this year.  I want to see if they go the trade route (which I believe they will pull off one big trade)  I truly believe this team is not as far off as many would think, I think with some smart signings this team could be at .500 next year.  Think about this the cubs have 49 million plus Arb tied up in salary.  If the overall payroll is somewhere close to 110, that is a lot of money avail.   The cubs have a chance to be very good if they picked up a few pieces.  Imagine if they hold onto Schierholtz and pick up a good platoon partner for him, sign someone like Mike Morse or Jason Kubel to a 2 yr deal, keep Dejesus in center, sign a Phil Hughes for the rotation. and pick up a quality catcher like Salty from Boston  Not a bad lineup in 2014 and add in the fact that if we do a big trade (who its for I really don't know) this lineup is pretty good:

Dejesus

Castro

Rizzo

Morse/Kubel 

Schierholtz

Olt

Salty/Castillo

Lake or Valbuena (I don't think either sticks but i'm cheering for them.  Barney needs to go to the bench.)

 

Shark

Hughes

Jackson

Wood

Villanueva/Rusin/Arrieta/Vizcaino (fingers crossed)/Grimm

 

Now imagine this lineup with a David Price/Stanton type player added to it.  SIGN ME UP!!!



#13 Nate

Nate

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 67 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

Posted 28 July 2013 - 08:56 AM

Scouting your own talent is something the Braves seem to have done extremely will with their pitching.  It is rare you see a braves pitcher that has been traded do well.  I'll be happy if the front office gets anywhere above 50 percent of the prospects to keep versus trade right.

 

That would be amazing.  I took a look at about 5 years worth of prospect ratings and seemed like about 1 in 3 of the top 40 prospects make it and way fewer after that (of course my definiton of making it is somewhat arbitrary and could be argued).

 

Hey, we may get lucky and have a better success rate because the cubs have been getting guys that could make an impact by this time next year, maybe scouting/ranking of the minor leagues is better now, and maybe Theo and Jed are just a whole lot smarter than everyone else.  If a bunch of these guys are gone in a year or two and if we get guys like Price and Stanton that would be amazing.  Hope you pick the right two or three to keep and make a couple good signings.Then your rolling.



#14 Timothy Scarbrough

Timothy Scarbrough

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 48 posts
  • LocationFayetteville, AR

Posted 28 July 2013 - 09:44 AM

 

Scouting your own talent is something the Braves seem to have done extremely will with their pitching.  It is rare you see a braves pitcher that has been traded do well.  I'll be happy if the front office gets anywhere above 50 percent of the prospects to keep versus trade right.

 

That would be amazing.  I took a look at about 5 years worth of prospect ratings and seemed like about 1 in 3 of the top 40 prospects make it and way fewer after that (of course my definiton of making it is somewhat arbitrary and could be argued).

 

Hey, we may get lucky and have a better success rate because the cubs have been getting guys that could make an impact by this time next year, maybe scouting/ranking of the minor leagues is better now, and maybe Theo and Jed are just a whole lot smarter than everyone else.  If a bunch of these guys are gone in a year or two and if we get guys like Price and Stanton that would be amazing.  Hope you pick the right two or three to keep and make a couple good signings.Then your rolling.

 

 

Here is a study done, based on WAR on BA's top 100. http://www.royalsrev...p-mlb-prospects

In the top 40 or so, about 30% had what was defined as superior success, generating 2.5 WAR.



#15 FFP

FFP

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 404 posts
  • LocationWorcester County, Massachusetts

Posted 28 July 2013 - 10:37 AM

Great link, Tim. Good read. Thanks

I think the new FA landscape that Coach points out is good news for the Cubs. FA signings historically have been Theo's weakest tool anyway, so perhaps he is being protected from himself in that regard.

Still, if the right puzzle piece, big name or no, comes on the FA market at the right time --




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Bleacher Nation is not affiliated in any way with Major League Baseball or the Chicago National League Ballclub (that's the Cubs).