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2014?


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#1 Rizzo1684

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 05:26 AM

So the trade deadline has come and gone and I feel we can start to make educated guesses on what the 2014 team will look like.  I would like to hear ppl's thoughts on some free agents the cubs might sign?  Remember the Cubs only have 49.7 million committed next year plus Arb raises and besides a decent bump in pay for Schierholtz and Wood and a big jump in pay for Shark the Cubs have a lot of money to spend.  Lets say for this the Cubs will spend 110 million next year (pretend the Cubs have 50 million to spend)  Here is my guess:

Cubs sign Dioneer Navaro for 2 yr 8 million, Sign Shin-Soo Choo 4 yr 60 million if miss out on him sign Jason Kubel signs 2 yr 12 million, sign Phil Hughes 3 yr 33 million, and Kelly Johnson on a 2 yr 8 million deal.  If the cubs miss out on Choo and go the Kubel route I could see them going after Josh Johnson and before you bash him realize since coming off the DL in June he has had a lot better numbers and thats pitching in the AL East.

Vs Righties/lefties

Dejesus/ Lake cf

Choo

Rizzo

Schierholtz/Johnson

Olt/Valbuena

Barney/Johnson/Valbuena

Saltalamacchai/Castillo

 

Pitching: Shark

Hughes

Jackson

Wood

Villanueva/Rusin/Grimm/Arrieta

 

As for the bullpen I feel we are pretty set: Fujikaw, Strop, Russell, and others.  Am I being delusional but I think that team could have  chance at sneaking into a wild card spot.  With a little luck of course.

 

 

 

 

 



#2 FFP

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 05:51 AM

 

 Am I being delusional but I think that team could have  chance at sneaking into a wild card spot.  With a little luck of course.

 

I don't think you are being delusional. Except, for the "luck" part, of course. Did you see the first half of this year? With a little luck we might have been buyers at the deadline, not sellers. Wait. Maybe we were lucky.

 

As to the free agent part I will defer to this excellent post by Oswego Chris.



#3 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:44 AM

We can "go for it" without "going for it" in 2014...

Extend Navarro now, then off season moves...

Travis Wood + Michael Bowden for 2B Howie Kendrick + SP Mark Sappington (A+).

 David DeJesus + 2B Darwin Barney + OF Brett Jackson + 1B Justin Bour + SP Ben Wells + RP Austin Reed for LHSP David Price + PTBNL.

 

[1.65] LF Valbuena (L) / Sappelt

[0.55] CF Lake

[4.80] RF Schierholtz (L) / Ha

[9.25] 2B Kendrick

[1.25] 1B Rizzo (L)

[0.55] 3B Olt

[05.0] SS Castro

[3.05] C Castillo / Navarro (S)

[0.55] BN Watkins (L)

[2.00] BN FA Veteran

-28.65-

 

[19.2] SP David Price (L)

[3.45] SP Jeff Samardzija

[11.0] SP Edwin Jackson

[0.55] SP Chris Rusin (L)

[0.55] SP Jake Arrieta

-34.75-

 

[05.0] LR Carlos Villanueva

[0.55] LR Justim Grimm

[0.55] RP Brooks Raley (L)

[0.55] RP Chang-Yong Lim

[0.55] SU Pedro Strop

[1.25] SU James Russell (L)

[0.55] CL Blake Parker

-9.00-

 

-25.6- = 4.0 (Fujikawa) + 2.0 (Soler) + 13 (Soriano) + 6.6 (roster fillers)

 

$98.0M payroll



#4 Starwin Bastro

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 09:20 AM



We can "go for it" without "going for it" in 2014...

Extend Navarro now, then off season moves...

Travis Wood + Michael Bowden for 2B Howie Kendrick + SP Mark Sappington (A+).

 David DeJesus + 2B Darwin Barney + OF Brett Jackson + 1B Justin Bour + SP Ben Wells + RP Austin Reed for LHSP David Price + PTBNL.

 

[1.65] LF Valbuena (L) / Sappelt

[0.55] CF Lake

[4.80] RF Schierholtz (L) / Ha

[9.25] 2B Kendrick

[1.25] 1B Rizzo (L)

[0.55] 3B Olt

[05.0] SS Castro

[3.05] C Castillo / Navarro (S)

[0.55] BN Watkins (L)

[2.00] BN FA Veteran

-28.65-

 

[19.2] SP David Price (L)

[3.45] SP Jeff Samardzija

[11.0] SP Edwin Jackson

[0.55] SP Chris Rusin (L)

[0.55] SP Jake Arrieta

-34.75-

 

[05.0] LR Carlos Villanueva

[0.55] LR Justim Grimm

[0.55] RP Brooks Raley (L)

[0.55] RP Chang-Yong Lim

[0.55] SU Pedro Strop

[1.25] SU James Russell (L)

[0.55] CL Blake Parker

-9.00-

 

-25.6- = 4.0 (Fujikawa) + 2.0 (Soler) + 13 (Soriano) + 6.6 (roster fillers)

 

$98.0M payroll

 

I'm sorry but no way TB does that deal.  We're not getting price without giving up AT LEAST 1 of big 4 and then probably 2 from a pool of Johnson, Vizcaino, Vogelbach, Alcantara, Edwards.  Also why trade Wood for that group? I'd like to see us keep Wood



#5 Patrick G

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:10 AM

We can "go for it" without "going for it" in 2014...Extend Navarro now, then off season moves...Travis Wood + Michael Bowden for 2B Howie Kendrick + SP Mark Sappington (A+). David DeJesus + 2B Darwin Barney + OF Brett Jackson + 1B Justin Bour + SP Ben Wells + RP Austin Reed for LHSP David Price + PTBNL. [1.65] LF Valbuena (L) / Sappelt[0.55] CF Lake[4.80] RF Schierholtz (L) / Ha[9.25] 2B Kendrick[1.25] 1B Rizzo (L)[0.55] 3B Olt[05.0] SS Castro[3.05] C Castillo / Navarro (S)[0.55] BN Watkins (L)[2.00] BN FA Veteran-28.65- [19.2] SP David Price (L)[3.45] SP Jeff Samardzija[11.0] SP Edwin Jackson[0.55] SP Chris Rusin (L)[0.55] SP Jake Arrieta-34.75- [05.0] LR Carlos Villanueva[0.55] LR Justim Grimm[0.55] RP Brooks Raley (L)[0.55] RP Chang-Yong Lim[0.55] SU Pedro Strop[1.25] SU James Russell (L)[0.55] CL Blake Parker-9.00- -25.6- = 4.0 (Fujikawa) + 2.0 (Soler) + 13 (Soriano) + 6.6 (roster fillers) $98.0M payroll

 I'm sorry but no way TB does that deal.  We're not getting price without giving up AT LEAST 1 of big 4 and then probably 2 from a pool of Johnson, Vizcaino, Vogelbach, Alcantara, Edwards.  Also why trade Wood for that group? I'd like to see us keep Wood

I agree, no way Price is dealt for that debacle of a package. No offense but look at what Toronto gave up for Dickey who is a 37 year old knuckleballer who was a pending FA.

I truly believe that Ellsbury could be had for a reasonable price, cheaper than wha Bourne go last offseason. He's injury prone and has only been effective as a base stealer than what we saw in 2011. I would be comfortable with a 3-4 yr deal around 10-12 a year. If he's healthy, Rizzo and Castro make proper adjustments and Olt can fix his problems, the lineup could be alot better. If the rotation performs like they have this year and the bullpen can add a quality piece or two, including a closer, it would be a pretty competitive team.

Alot of "ifs" but they could be a quality team if all works out. Even if what I suggested doesn't happen, I think the front office will make the right moves to be a surprise team next season.

#6 Rizzo1684

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 03:49 PM

0% chance Tampa takes  that Price deal.  I believe if the cubs want Price (with an extension in place) it would cost Baez,Soler and Johnson.  It really depends on the extension but if it was a 7 year 170 million that is something I would think about(remember all the TV money that will be coming to teams and realize this is the cost of top pitching.)  I believe they would throw something else in like a Drew Vettleson (#10 in there system, good player) and that is something that I would probably do as long as the extension is in place.

 I would love Ellsbury on a 4 yr deal but something tells me the lowest he goes is 6 yrs and I just don't want any part of him on a 6 year deal.



#7 Kygavin

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 04:31 PM

  • Ya the Price is wrong on that Price deal. No way TB does that unless Jim Bowden finds a way to take the team over.
  • I also feel like Choo is going to get more than 4/60. His stock is about as high as it is going to get and there are a lot of teams that could use a solid RF with a 400 obp (see at least 25 teams).
  • Just personal gut feeling but I think Ellsbury gets massively overpaid this offseason and some team breaks the bank for him. Im thinking like 5/80 or 6/95 somewhere in that ballpark. 
  • Im not a fan of signing Kubel, Hughes, or Kelly Johnson either. Just not a huge fan of any of those guys but I am all-aboard the upgrade 2B train
  • I might be crazy for this but I am a huge fan of resigning Garza for around an Anibal type deal. Would take Josh Johnson as a solid consolation prize though 


#8 Rizzo1684

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 05:40 PM

My thoughts on Kubel is it seems Theo & the gang love cheap power (Navarro, Schierholtz, Hairston) I just have a feeling they are going to stay in the 2 year window for the left fielder since the Farm should start producing outfielders come mid season 2015(unless they get someone like a Choo who will be part of the future.)  Any idea's what the cubs will do with the outfield?  I would also be a fan of Garza but I keep hearing things about his character and how he's not as good of a clubhouse guy that I always thought he was.  Not a awful guy or anything just not someone the front office would invest 5+ years in.  I also like Josh Johnson a lot and would be a big fan of that signing.  What do you think the Cubs could do with 2b? Maybe Johnny Peralta would be a nice buy low candidate but I like Kelly Johnson b/c of his versatility and they have Arismendy Alcantara,Baez, and Villanueva in the wings.  I love hearing ppl's thoughts on here.



#9 Patrick G

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 06:46 PM

If the price on Ellsbury is that high forget it. I do like Kelly Johnson a lot. He wont be too expensive and he's got 15 homers in under 300 AB, some guys are already accumulating 400. He would be a HUGE upgrade at 2B. I think with 3 SP already plugged in and Villanueva, Arrieta and Grimm signed passed this season, I don't think they do much with the rotation, unless its a buy-low, flippable asset types like Feldman. I see a move or two to add to the lineup and try and patch things up in the bullpen



#10 Kygavin

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 09:26 PM

If the price on Ellsbury is that high forget it. I do like Kelly Johnson a lot. He wont be too expensive and he's got 15 homers in under 300 AB, some guys are already accumulating 400. He would be a HUGE upgrade at 2B. I think with 3 SP already plugged in and Villanueva, Arrieta and Grimm signed passed this season, I don't think they do much with the rotation, unless its a buy-low, flippable asset types like Feldman. I see a move or two to add to the lineup and try and patch things up in the bullpen

As bad as Josh Johnson has been he could be a perfect 1 year buy low trade candidate. said he has been dealing with knee tendonitis all year. 



#11 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 11:24 AM

We need a middle-of-the-order guy and 2B is the best place to upgrade. We're stop-gapping successfully with a Valbuena/Ransom platoon at 3B, but that's unsustainable. Hopefully, Olt turns on the burners and starts clicking soon. Having Valbuena on the team shows you how extremely valuable he is to this club. 

 

Rather than splurge on Cano, a trade with a willing Los Angeles Angels will get us a cost-controlled (if you consider $9.3M cost-controlled for a slugger with a reasonable strikeout rate) Howie Kendrick. He doesn't need to be platooned + the trade return from sending Barney to another team + the pitcher's salary we send to the Angels + the prospects included in the deal + the prospects we get when we flip him when Alcantara is hopefully ready to take over. It seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

Say, we can't sign Samardzija to an extension; we can send him over to the Angels for Kendrick, Calhoun, and Sappington (+ more possibly, since they want to salary dump Kendrick for some reason). We can now send DeJesus packing +$6.5M + Barney $1.25M + Samardijza $4.75 = $12.5M - Kendrick's $9.25M = $3.25M we can spend towards a free agent starting pitcher to flip (or extending Navarro) and the return we get from DeJesus and Barney should be cost-controlled players, too. 

 

CF Lake

3B Valbuena (L)

2B Kendrick

1B Rizzo (L)

RF Schierholtz (L)

SS Castro

LF Calhoun (L)

C Castillo

 

Looks good on paper.



#12 Kygavin

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 12:08 PM

We need a middle-of-the-order guy and 2B is the best place to upgrade. We're stop-gapping successfully with a Valbuena/Ransom platoon at 3B, but that's unsustainable. Hopefully, Olt turns on the burners and starts clicking soon. Having Valbuena on the team shows you how extremely valuable he is to this club. 

 

Rather than splurge on Cano, a trade with a willing Los Angeles Angels will get us a cost-controlled (if you consider $9.3M cost-controlled for a slugger with a reasonable strikeout rate) Howie Kendrick. He doesn't need to be platooned + the trade return from sending Barney to another team + the pitcher's salary we send to the Angels + the prospects included in the deal + the prospects we get when we flip him when Alcantara is hopefully ready to take over. It seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

Say, we can't sign Samardzija to an extension; we can send him over to the Angels for Kendrick, Calhoun, and Sappington (+ more possibly, since they want to salary dump Kendrick for some reason). We can now send DeJesus packing +$6.5M + Barney $1.25M + Samardijza $4.75 = $12.5M - Kendrick's $9.25M = $3.25M we can spend towards a free agent starting pitcher to flip (or extending Navarro) and the return we get from DeJesus and Barney should be cost-controlled players, too. 

 

CF Lake

3B Valbuena (L)

2B Kendrick

1B Rizzo (L)

RF Schierholtz (L)

SS Castro

LF Calhoun (L)

C Castillo

 

Looks good on paper.

Im a big fan of Kendrick but I would rather have Shark than Kendrick. SP is harder to acquire from outside of the org so I say keep him until they are sure they cant extend him



#13 Rizzo1684

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 06:44 PM

@Mike I love how you think outside of the box. I think if the cubs can not get a deal done with Shark they need to move him. I think the return on him this off season would be a great haul. I could see Seattle jumping in and offering a ton. I think they would offer Hultzen, Montero, and Paxton. Would you do that deal? I think I would and before anyone says "no way Seattle does that" they want to rid themselves of Montereo, Hultzen was injured this year and Paxton has just been good. This is a deal only I'd Shark says no way to an extension bc I am a huge fan of his.

#14 Kygavin

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Posted 03 August 2013 - 01:26 PM

@Mike I love how you think outside of the box. I think if the cubs can not get a deal done with Shark they need to move him. I think the return on him this off season would be a great haul. I could see Seattle jumping in and offering a ton. I think they would offer Hultzen, Montero, and Paxton. Would you do that deal? I think I would and before anyone says "no way Seattle does that" they want to rid themselves of Montereo, Hultzen was injured this year and Paxton has just been good. This is a deal only I'd Shark says no way to an extension bc I am a huge fan of his.

I wouldnt want that. Montero is a DH which wouldnt help the Cubs, Hultzen is a #3, and Paxton is most likely going to be a RP or a 4/5 starter



#15 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 10:45 AM

I agree that Montero does not interest the Cubs in the least. He's tied to the Biogenesis scandal and was hyped up by the Yankees' machine to gain interest, so they could trade him for pitching. We have our version of Montero-Junior Lake, and he is better defensively and unlike Montero, has shown the ability to actually hit in the majors. If the Cubs were to trade Samardzija involving the Mariners, we'd be looking at Walker, Hultzen, and a low A arm, like Victor Sanchez. Odds are, the Mariners will not do that.

 

The idea of trading Samardzija for offense (assuming he does not agree to a reasonable extension), should always be an option, because it's what we actually need on this team to improve. We have Kyle Hendricks and others moving up through the system, potentially replacing a spot in the rotation next year, not to mention free agent flip-projects like Phil Hughes or Scott Baker (again) that we could sign and take a spot in the rotation. With Watkins futilely coming closer to being a bench option/utility guy, 2B is wide open for at least a year until Alcantara gains momentum. Valbuena would be the in-house option if Olt gets the 3B job. 






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