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#16 Rizzo1684

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Posted 05 August 2013 - 01:32 PM

I agree with you KY Gavin and Mike, I undervalued Samardzija in that trade.  I really hope they get an extension worked out and I think they will.  I really want to know what Choo is going to get in the open market.  I think it will be an off season of smart lower years signings and then next year they will go all out for a player.  I would like them to get Josh Johnson, resign Navarro or Saltalamacchia,let Valbuena be the bridge to Baez/Arismendy Alcantara, and pick up an outfielder like Mike Morse on a 3 yr deal.  The line up would like this:

Dejesus/Lake

Starlin

Rizzo

Morse

Schierholtz/Lake

Olt/Valbuena

Valbuena/Barney

Castillo/Navarro or Saltalamacchia.

 

Pitching:

Shark, Johnson, Jackson, Wood, one of our 5 different players that could fill the 5th spot.



#17 chirogerg1

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Posted 06 August 2013 - 12:01 AM

Can we all agree to hop off the sign Hughes as a reclamation project train. Hughes is a bad pitcher who gives up a homer per start, doesn't strike guys out, and isn't particularly adept at not walking people. We should not be signing or trading for half the guys on this board. Kendrick is bad, so why would we want him in the first place, much less want to trade Shark for him? If we have to trade Shark, can we get something other than an average 2-bagger and a couple of scrubs please? 

 

Kelly Johnson sucks. Phil Hughes is TERRIBLE. 

 

Ellsbury, on the other hand, would be a great sign. If you look at his injury history, most of it is freakish, as in collisions. The injury history might be good in bringing down the number of years other teams will offer him.

 

As the TUC (time until contention) decreases, the Cubs need to be looking at impact guys, not as much fillers and role players (the kind of player our farm system is flush with), albeit at a non-albatrosscious price. The guys we need to look at are Ellsbury, Choo, Garza, Santana (maybe not actually), McCann, AJ Burnett (old?). A couple of buy low guys would be good, especially for value in trades, but it would be nice to see at least a small splash.

 

Did I mention how god-awful Phil Hughes is?



#18 Luke

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Posted 06 August 2013 - 09:57 PM

Ellsbury has had one great year, so how great of a signing it would be depends in no small part on the contract.  And on which Ellsbury is the real one.  If he is a speed-first guy, then a long contract is a bad idea.  Those guys do not age well.  If he is really the slugging monster from his one great season, on the other hand, it is a different story.  



#19 wvcubsfan

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 07:30 AM

Ellsbury has had one great year, so how great of a signing it would be depends in no small part on the contract.  And on which Ellsbury is the real one.  If he is a speed-first guy, then a long contract is a bad idea.  Those guys do not age well.  If he is really the slugging monster from his one great season, on the other hand, it is a different story.  

This sounds like another free agent the Cubs signed a few years ago.  His name is slipping my mind now.  Think he stole a lot of bases and hit a lot of home runs, then it seems that he hurt his knee and was never the same player.



#20 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 01:02 PM

Yeah, we just traded him for Corey Black.



#21 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 02:20 PM

I'm starting to think that signing Brian McCann would be a better idea than a flip pitcher. Looking at the comparison timeline, he's a little better than Nate Schierholtz (and their careers have kind of mocked each other). 

 

[1.75] LF Valbuena (L) / Sappelt

[0.55] CF Lake

[1.25] 1B Rizzo (L)

[16.5] C McCann (L) / Castillo

[9.25] 2B Kendrick

[6.15] RF Schierholtz (L) / Neal

[0.55] 3B Olt

[05.0] SS Castro

[0.55] UT Watkins (L)

[0.55] BN Rohan

-42.1-

 

[11.0] SP Jackson

[1.25] SP Wood (L)

[0.55] SP Arrieta

[05.0] SP Villanueva

[0.55] SP Rusin (L)

-18.35-

 

Bullpen

-4.55-

 

= $65M + 4(Fujikawa) + 2 (Soler) + 13 (Soriano) + 6.6 (15 roster spots) = $90.6M



#22 SlamminSammy

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 02:53 PM

Ellsbury is nothing like Soriano though.  Ellsbury has consistently played above average defense in center and while it seems intuitive, there is no statistical evidence that speed guys age poorly and it is largely the other way around that they age better.  Obviously you only sign him if he's the right price, but without saying what the "right price" is that is pretty meaningless.  I could see a 5 year deal worth 65 million being worth it for ellsbury and theres a decent chance hed take that.  

 

I like the McCann Idea because it is one area where the farm is not going to produce anything valuable even if Castillo is decent.

 

For 2nd base I think an older player that is still productive like Utley would be a good option.  Yes he's past his prime, but he wouldn't be signing for a long term deal and he's still very productive.  

 

If we're looking for platoon partners, why don't the cubs try to sign Jeff Baker.  Him and Schierholtz would be an excellent right field combo.



#23 Rizzo1684

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 03:17 PM

@ Mike if that is the lineup the Cubs roll out on opening day I think a riot would break out in Wrigleyville.  I think the going price on Ellsbury this off season is going to be 6 yrs 90 million,which I would not offer if I was the Cubs.  I just feel the Cubs can actually get a really good team on the field without overpaying for one guy.  I love Brian McCann and I would be a big fan of signing him but he would cost a 4 yr 60 million and a team who can put him half the time at DH would benefit from him more then the Cubs.I believe the Cubs will sign a pitcher (maybe Jason Vargas or Josh Johnson who I think would bounce back nicely in the NL Central) I think they will make a run at Salty for catcher maybe a 3 yr 36million(if they fail sign Navarro for 2 yr 10 million) and I would love for them to get a solid outfielder on a 3 year deal.  The big question I have for everyone on here what outfielder do they sign? What will Curtis Granderson sign for?  He would be a nice 3 yr deal to put in left field.  Mike Morse? Jason Kubel (could be a nice buy low guy), McLouth? Rajai Davis?  I truely do not have any idea but I believe the Cubs do sign 3-4 solid free agents and try to compete next year.



#24 Luke

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 08:37 PM

there is no statistical evidence that speed guys age poorly and it is largely the other way around that they age better. 

 

I'd like to see the evidence on this claim.  You may be right, but I'd like to examine the statistics you are referring to.



#25 Luke

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 08:41 PM

 David DeJesus + 2B Darwin Barney + OF Brett Jackson + 1B Justin Bour + SP Ben Wells + RP Austin Reed for LHSP David Price + PTBNL.

 

It's been awhile since I've said this.  Looks like we're overdue.

 

QUANTITY DOES NOT EQUAL QUALITY

 

Any GM that would deal Price for that poor of a return deserves to be fired, rehired, and fired again just on principle.



#26 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 05:46 AM

 

there is no statistical evidence that speed guys age poorly and it is largely the other way around that they age better. 

 

I'd like to see the evidence on this claim.  You may be right, but I'd like to examine the statistics you are referring to.

 

pssst, Luke, he doesn't have any.


"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, it's the fat that makes you look fat." - Al Bundy

 

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#27 Starwin Bastro

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:01 AM

We need a middle-of-the-order guy and 2B is the best place to upgrade. We're stop-gapping successfully with a Valbuena/Ransom platoon at 3B, but that's unsustainable. Hopefully, Olt turns on the burners and starts clicking soon. Having Valbuena on the team shows you how extremely valuable he is to this club. 

 

Rather than splurge on Cano, a trade with a willing Los Angeles Angels will get us a cost-controlled (if you consider $9.3M cost-controlled for a slugger with a reasonable strikeout rate) Howie Kendrick. He doesn't need to be platooned + the trade return from sending Barney to another team + the pitcher's salary we send to the Angels + the prospects included in the deal + the prospects we get when we flip him when Alcantara is hopefully ready to take over. It seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

Say, we can't sign Samardzija to an extension; we can send him over to the Angels for Kendrick, Calhoun, and Sappington (+ more possibly, since they want to salary dump Kendrick for some reason). We can now send DeJesus packing +$6.5M + Barney $1.25M + Samardijza $4.75 = $12.5M - Kendrick's $9.25M = $3.25M we can spend towards a free agent starting pitcher to flip (or extending Navarro) and the return we get from DeJesus and Barney should be cost-controlled players, too. 

 

CF Lake

3B Valbuena (L)

2B Kendrick

1B Rizzo (L)

RF Schierholtz (L)

SS Castro

LF Calhoun (L)

C Castillo

 

Looks good on paper.

 

That team doesn't win more than 65 games.  What is the obsession with Howie Kendrick? The Angels are one of the least likeliest trading partners for Samardzija in the league; no propsects, extremely weak farm system.



#28 Starwin Bastro

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:05 AM

Then I'd also have to change my name and avatar.  Starwie Castrick isn't the same as Starwin Bastro



#29 SlamminSammy

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:51 AM

 

 

there is no statistical evidence that speed guys age poorly and it is largely the other way around that they age better. 

 

I'd like to see the evidence on this claim.  You may be right, but I'd like to examine the statistics you are referring to.

 

pssst, Luke, he doesn't have any.

 

 

psst, CubbieBlues, I do, or I should say Tangotiger (who happens to consult for the cubs) does http://www.insidethe...eed_age_better/



#30 TWC

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 09:23 AM

 

 

 

there is no statistical evidence that speed guys age poorly and it is largely the other way around that they age better. 

 

I'd like to see the evidence on this claim.  You may be right, but I'd like to examine the statistics you are referring to.

 

pssst, Luke, he doesn't have any.

 

 

psst, CubbieBlues, I do, or I should say Tangotiger (who happens to consult for the cubs) does http://www.insidethe...eed_age_better/

 

 

 

Yeah, but that study wouldn't count Ellsbury in its data set.  It's a collection of "great" players from 1895-1968 who had acquired 5.9 WAR per 700 PAs over the preceding four seasons.  Ellsbury has only been ~2/3rds as good as that, w/ a 4 WAR/650PA rate.  It's just not a valid comparison.






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