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#31 Patrick G

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 09:41 AM

I'm starting to think that signing Brian McCann would be a better idea than a flip pitcher. Looking at the comparison timeline, he's a little better than Nate Schierholtz (and their careers have kind of mocked each other). 
 
[1.75] LF Valbuena (L) / Sappelt
[0.55] CF Lake
[1.25] 1B Rizzo (L)
[16.5] C McCann (L) / Castillo
[9.25] 2B Kendrick
[6.15] RF Schierholtz (L) / Neal
[0.55] 3B Olt
[05.0] SS Castro
[0.55] UT Watkins (L)
[0.55] BN Rohan
-42.1-
 
[11.0] SP Jackson
[1.25] SP Wood (L)
[0.55] SP Arrieta
[05.0] SP Villanueva
[0.55] SP Rusin (L)
-18.35-
 
Bullpen
-4.55-
 
= $65M + 4(Fujikawa) + 2 (Soler) + 13 (Soriano) + 6.6 (15 roster spots) = $90.6M


That team is terrible. How does Kendrick balance out Samardzjia? Id rather keep shark and sign someone like Kelly Johnson, and if you do trade shark, you have to get more than Kendrick, mainly high upside pitchig prospects. I do like McCann, but not sure the FO wants to spend alot of money on a catcher that has been injured alot the past few years.

#32 SlamminSammy

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 12:50 PM

 

 

 

 

there is no statistical evidence that speed guys age poorly and it is largely the other way around that they age better. 

 

I'd like to see the evidence on this claim.  You may be right, but I'd like to examine the statistics you are referring to.

 

pssst, Luke, he doesn't have any.

 

 

psst, CubbieBlues, I do, or I should say Tangotiger (who happens to consult for the cubs) does http://www.insidethe...eed_age_better/

 

 

 

Yeah, but that study wouldn't count Ellsbury in its data set.  It's a collection of "great" players from 1895-1968 who had acquired 5.9 WAR per 700 PAs over the preceding four seasons.  Ellsbury has only been ~2/3rds as good as that, w/ a 4 WAR/650PA rate.  It's just not a valid comparison.

 

 

Fair enough.  However, even if this study only accounts for "great" players and not the "very good" players, considering that I have seen no analysis which shows evidence that speed players age slowly, I think it shows that it's not safe to assume speed guys fall off a cliff after 29.  In general I think it makes sense that fast guys retain value longer though.  They are able to maintain high level of play in the field better so they don't become a drag on the team.  I don't think Ellsbury will command a 100MM contract which is why I think the cubs would be mistaken not to try to sign him, especially if they have a protected first round pick.  I think this is a good year to take a shot on a FA because there are quite a few that fit this FO's mold of high OPS guys at positions up the middle like Cano, McCann, Ellsbury



#33 wvcubsfan

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 06:48 PM

All of that is well and good, but I would think that most of the best players in the "speed" category also had an above average "power" component.

 

As of right now the jury is still out on JE as to whether he's a great player or slightly above average.  IMHO of course.



#34 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 07:43 PM

All of that is well and good, but I would think that most of the best players in the "speed" category also had an above average "power" component.
 
As of right now the jury is still out on JE as to whether he's a great player or slightly above average.  IMHO of course.

Exactly, that was a study of "great" players. Most of his WAR came from his big power year. If memory serves, it was a 9.0 WAR year.

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#35 SlamminSammy

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:33 PM

Ellsbury has put up 22.1 WAR according to Fangraphs since 2007, he is definitely a very good player.  My only argument is that the fact that he derives some of his value from his speed should not be an argument against signing him.  No one has shown me any statistical evidence that fast players lose value faster than slow ones.  I think he's a good investment because when he has been healthy he's been very good and he's shown he's completely recovered from his  last freak injury.  Looking at his years I like betting on him more and more.

 

2008: Average offensive numbers superb defensive and baserunning

2009:  put up average offensive numbers with superb baserunning but with subpar defensive metrics for some reason.

2010: Collides into Beltre, breaks ribs, no meaningful stats

2011: Is a top 5 position player in the league

2012: gets injured in another collision early in the year, and it probably lingered for the rest of the year.  Even with below average bat, he still puts up great baserunning and defensive numbers to make him worth 1.4 fangraphs WAR in only 74 games

2013: shows hes fully recovered, above average bat with again fantastic baserunning and defense.

 

To me, this shows Ellsbury is probably an above average hitter with well above average defense and baserunning.  If the rest of baseball values him as a "slightly above average" player the cubs should do their best to sign him because he is clearly an above average player with potential greatness.



#36 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 06:16 AM

What if we just had a guy that has a .350 OBP, career 24 WAR, above average on the bases and above average in the field for a fraction of the cost and without the history of big injuries?


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#37 SlamminSammy

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 07:09 AM

I think most people would agree Dejesus is a little bit stretched in CF and the fact that he only plays against righties is another knock on him.  He's good but he is still just an average player.  If the cubs want to be an average team next year, I think an OF of Lake, DDJ and Schierholtz works, but if they want a shot at the playoffs, one of those spots should be upgraded and CF is the most obvious.  The way I see it, the cubs best chance of improving significantly is upgrading the pen, 2B, 3B and the OF.  There's not much on the market for 2B outside of Cano, 3B is basically a free agency blackhole, but there are a lot of good players in the OF so i think thats where they make a splash.



#38 Rizzo1684

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 07:15 AM

I like Ellsbury a lot actually and if the Cubs could get him for 5 yrs 85 million then they should sign him.  I see him getting a similar contract of Jose Reyes of 6 yrs and 100 million with the Mets or another outfield hungry team .  I don't really want him at that extra year though.



#39 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 07:40 AM

Shin-Soo Choo is the OF to go after if we need a FA. Same career WAR as Ellsbury without the hold-up of half of it coming in one season. Nelson Cruz is another player that we could go after on a one-year prove it deal. Both players will be cheaper than Ellsbury.


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#40 SlamminSammy

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 08:43 AM

I like Choo and Cruz, but that would give the cubs  corner OF if they signed one of them.  They need a good centerfielder to hold the position until 2016 when Almora can realistically be expected to take the reins.  Between Lake, Schierholtz, DDJ, Choo and Cruz, I don't think any of them should be the starting CF on a team i want to contend



#41 Rizzo1684

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 08:51 AM

If the Cubs miss out on Choo and Ellsbury, I wonder what deal Curtis Granderson will get?  I know he's not a big OBP guy but if he could come over on a 2-3 year deal that might be something the Cubs are interested in.



#42 Tom Zoro

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 09:15 AM

There is a ton of good options in the Outfield FA market.  Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz, Rajai Davis, Nate McLouth, Mike Morse, Shin Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Hunter Pence, Corey Hart. Obviously not all on the same class, but the Cubs could pull away, potentially, with 2 above average outfielders



#43 wvcubsfan

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 09:22 AM

There is a ton of good options in the Outfield FA market.  Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz, Rajai Davis, Nate McLouth, Mike Morse, Shin Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Hunter Pence, Corey Hart. Obviously not all on the same class, but the Cubs could pull away, potentially, with 2 above average outfielders

Pull away from what?  2 above average outfielders will not make up the difference between this years Cubs and this years Pirates, Cards, and Reds.  That's assuming that neither of those teams better themselves.

 

Replace our entire outfield with any of the three above and unless we fix the pitching it's an exercise in futility.



#44 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 09:47 AM

Ervin Santana would be a pretty good pitcher to get.


"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, it's the fat that makes you look fat." - Al Bundy

 

"Ow" - Dylan Bundy


#45 Tom Zoro

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 10:23 AM

 

There is a ton of good options in the Outfield FA market.  Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz, Rajai Davis, Nate McLouth, Mike Morse, Shin Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Hunter Pence, Corey Hart. Obviously not all on the same class, but the Cubs could pull away, potentially, with 2 above average outfielders

Pull away from what?  2 above average outfielders will not make up the difference between this years Cubs and this years Pirates, Cards, and Reds.  That's assuming that neither of those teams better themselves.

 

Replace our entire outfield with any of the three above and unless we fix the pitching it's an exercise in futility.

 

Sorry, but I probably worded it wrong  . In no way do I think the Cubs can pull away from the other three teams.  I meant to say the Cubs could bring in two above average outfielders. Obviously the Cubs would have to add more pieces to compete with the Reds, Cards, and Pirates. 






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