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WTF Jesse Rogers


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#1 Nate

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 01:48 PM

So in about a weeks time Rogers has predicted Baez would start next year at AAA Iowa and would be up by the end of the year and (as of today) stated that Bryant should open next year as the starting third basemen for the Chicago Cubs.  Now it would be awesome to have an infield of Rizzo, Baez (at 2B?), Castro and Bryant and if/when these guys reach their potential you could have your 2-5 hitters.  If its next year I would be thrilled but this seems unlikely and could really hurt player development if either flops.



#2 Cerambam

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 02:38 PM

So in about a weeks time Rogers has predicted Baez would start next year at AAA Iowa and would be up by the end of the year and (as of today) stated that Bryant should open next year as the starting third basemen for the Chicago Cubs.  Now it would be awesome to have an infield of Rizzo, Baez (at 2B?), Castro and Bryant and if/when these guys reach their potential you could have your 2-5 hitters.  If its next year I would be thrilled but this seems unlikely and could really hurt player development if either flops.

Better yet, how about Olt at 3rd and Bryant Soler and Almora in the Outfield! With vogs as the dh! All by april 1st of next year!

 

edit: the sarcasm is pointed towards rogers



#3 Nate

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 02:59 PM

 

edit: the sarcasm is pointed towards rogers

 

 

As I re-read this I wasn't strong enough.  This is crazy.  Baez will probably start in AA and even with a promotion Bryant is in AA not the majors or even AAA.

 

The thing is I like Rogers but the last two articles I've read of his have seemed nuts to me



#4 King Jeff

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Posted 14 August 2013 - 04:29 PM

I could see Baez in Wrigley next year, even breaking camp with the big club if he has a big spring.  I think if he continues what he's doing the rest of the year, there is no reason for him to go back to AA next year.  Bryant probably isn't that far behind, but I don't expect he and Soler until September next year at the earliest, and that's if both end up in Tennessee early enough in the year. 



#5 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 06:23 AM

Why would Baez skip AAA and jump start his clock?


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#6 Nate

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 01:06 PM

Why would Baez skip AAA and jump start his clock?

 

If he's big league ready then the clock doesn't really matter.  They would have decided the minors aren't doing anything for him anymore.

 

Also, the 'clock' is a myth.  It is really time on a roster.  Its not like if he's brought up for a week and then sent down he's arbitration time has started.  If he's up for a 130 AB's or 45 games on the roster then he's rookie year is over so I think a year of control is gone. (not sure about this, help?)



#7 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 01:37 PM

 

Why would Baez skip AAA and jump start his clock?

If he's big league ready then the clock doesn't really matter.  They would have decided the minors aren't doing anything for him anymore.

 

Also, the 'clock' is a myth.  It is really time on a roster.  Its not like if he's brought up for a week and then sent down he's arbitration time has started.  If he's up for a 130 AB's or 45 games on the roster then he's rookie year is over so I think a year of control is gone. (not sure about this, help?)

What part of clock and time on a roster confuses you? When someone says "starting their clock" they don't meant that it doesn't stop if being sent back down to the Minors, but the days of service sure do. A player like Baez when they come up, they come up to stay. He isn't going to break camp with the team and all of a sudden in June get sent to Iowa (unless he is tanking).

 

 

Under the CBA, 1 year of service is defined as 172 days. A player may earn up to 172 days of Major League service during a championship season (regular season), which generally lasts 183 calendar days. If a player is sent to the minor leagues on optional assignment for a total of 20 days or less during a season, he receives service time for the entire season.
A player with at least 3 years of Major League service is eligible for arbitration. (Eligibility for arbitration also is extended to players just shy of 3 full years of service. See Super Two.)

Clock starting matters during a non-competitive season*. Why waste the money and control of a player if he isn't going to help push you into the playoffs?

 

 

*I define competitive season where you plan on making the play-offs.


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#8 Nate

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 02:23 PM

 

 

Why would Baez skip AAA and jump start his clock?

If he's big league ready then the clock doesn't really matter.  They would have decided the minors aren't doing anything for him anymore.

 

Also, the 'clock' is a myth.  It is really time on a roster.  Its not like if he's brought up for a week and then sent down he's arbitration time has started.  If he's up for a 130 AB's or 45 games on the roster then he's rookie year is over so I think a year of control is gone. (not sure about this, help?)

What part of clock and time on a roster confuses you? When someone says "starting their clock" they don't meant that it doesn't stop if being sent back down to the Minors, but the days of service sure do. A player like Baez when they come up, they come up to stay. He isn't going to break camp with the team and all of a sudden in June get sent to Iowa (unless he is tanking).

 

 

Under the CBA, 1 year of service is defined as 172 days. A player may earn up to 172 days of Major League service during a championship season (regular season), which generally lasts 183 calendar days. If a player is sent to the minor leagues on optional assignment for a total of 20 days or less during a season, he receives service time for the entire season.
A player with at least 3 years of Major League service is eligible for arbitration. (Eligibility for arbitration also is extended to players just shy of 3 full years of service. See Super Two.)

Clock starting matters during a non-competitive season*. Why waste the money and control of a player if he isn't going to help push you into the playoffs?

 

 

*I define competitive season where you plan on making the play-offs.

 

 

Wow, that was more anger than I expected.  I agree that a player like Baez comes up and stays up unless he's tanking but that's kinda the point.  It seems to early.  He just might tank or he could never develop fully because he was rushed.  That said, if he's ready you advance him.  Not a lot of guys come up dominating and you bring him up let him make adjustments and figure out what kind of player he really is.  He's a highly touted prospect and about 33% of them are gonna be above average in the majors.  You can't wait and assume he's ready when the team is.

 

Also, there have been plenty of discussion about how you shouldn't bring a guy up in september and start his arbitration clock.  Thanks for the details, but a lot of people don't have the understanding you do and that's what I was trying to point out.  Didn't mean to get you all hot and bothered



#9 K0ng

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 03:41 PM

It's interesting to think about whether "rushing" a prospect to the bigs damages him somehow if you do it too soon.   Three types of examples in recent Cubs history illustrate the different ways this can work out:

 

1. Starlin Castro - brought up quickly, probably largely to create fan interest, and has struggled in parts of his game, but generally been a useful player, who's good skills generally overshadow areas needing more development

 

2.  Brett Jackson - brought up roughly on schedule, and tanked completely in the majors.  Was probably brought up without a full 2012 in AAA on the strength of his second half 2011 performance, which featured a troubling 30% K rate, but which looked very good on the strength of an unsustainable .402 babip.  A dramatic lower babip (.298) in Chicago, combined with a predictably elevated 42% K rate (it was 34% at Iowa) sealed his fate.  And now, he appears to be just lost... irrevocably broken perhaps?  If he had just reverted to his 2012 Iowa numbers, you could say that's just his peak, but he's way worse, suggesting that the experience with Chicago could have damaged him in a non-baseball-ability way.

 

3.  Anthony Rizzo - who also tanked miserably when first brought up, but seems to have mentally survived the experience, and is afforded the chance to learn how to hit in the majors via on-the-job training because his club is going nowhere, and can afford to have him struggle there.  His hitting performance - in many phases - has been encouraging, despite some pretty quiet stretches.  Rizzo might not have been out there every day on a contender...

 

So, if the Cubs are no good in 2014, I guess you could make the case that Baez might as well learn baseball playing with the best players, if you can afford to wait out his growing pains.  His K rate, so far, is a bit higher at Tennessee than Jackson's was, but he's also younger than Jackson was, and has more power, so there's no reason not to put him on the half-season at Tennessee, half season at Iowa, September callup for 2014, assuming things progress.  But there's also a case to be made, if the Cubs aren't competitive, to try skipping that AAA move and trotting him out in Chicago every day after the All Star break.  Assuming that he will struggle mightily, like Jackson, Vitters and Rizzo, will he emerge in 2015 better for the experience and coaching?  As long as you don't psychologically break the guy (if that's what's even wrong with Jackson), why not?



#10 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 16 August 2013 - 05:56 AM

 

 

 

Why would Baez skip AAA and jump start his clock?

If he's big league ready then the clock doesn't really matter.  They would have decided the minors aren't doing anything for him anymore.

 

Also, the 'clock' is a myth.  It is really time on a roster.  Its not like if he's brought up for a week and then sent down he's arbitration time has started.  If he's up for a 130 AB's or 45 games on the roster then he's rookie year is over so I think a year of control is gone. (not sure about this, help?)

What part of clock and time on a roster confuses you? When someone says "starting their clock" they don't meant that it doesn't stop if being sent back down to the Minors, but the days of service sure do. A player like Baez when they come up, they come up to stay. He isn't going to break camp with the team and all of a sudden in June get sent to Iowa (unless he is tanking).

 

Under the CBA, 1 year of service is defined as 172 days. A player may earn up to 172 days of Major League service during a championship season (regular season), which generally lasts 183 calendar days. If a player is sent to the minor leagues on optional assignment for a total of 20 days or less during a season, he receives service time for the entire season.

A player with at least 3 years of Major League service is eligible for arbitration. (Eligibility for arbitration also is extended to players just shy of 3 full years of service. See Super Two.)

Clock starting matters during a non-competitive season*. Why waste the money and control of a player if he isn't going to help push you into the playoffs?

 

 

*I define competitive season where you plan on making the play-offs.

Wow, that was more anger than I expected.  I agree that a player like Baez comes up and stays up unless he's tanking but that's kinda the point.  It seems to early.  He just might tank or he could never develop fully because he was rushed.  That said, if he's ready you advance him.  Not a lot of guys come up dominating and you bring him up let him make adjustments and figure out what kind of player he really is.  He's a highly touted prospect and about 33% of them are gonna be above average in the majors.  You can't wait and assume he's ready when the team is.

 

Also, there have been plenty of discussion about how you shouldn't bring a guy up in september and start his arbitration clock.  Thanks for the details, but a lot of people don't have the understanding you do and that's what I was trying to point out.  Didn't mean to get you all hot and bothered

 

Not angry at all, but I don't like being talked down to. Most every diehard fans understand the minucia of a players clock. Also, you can't say that his clock doesn't matter. Nobody is saying keep him down for two year, but there is merit for keeping him down most of next year to gain an extra year of control. All you have to do is look at what they did with Rizzo last year. They kept him down to gain that extra year of control, suspending his clock.


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#11 Nate

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Posted 16 August 2013 - 06:43 AM

So, if the Cubs are no good in 2014, I guess you could make the case that Baez might as well learn baseball playing with the best players, if you can afford to wait out his growing pains.  His K rate, so far, is a bit higher at Tennessee than Jackson's was, but he's also younger than Jackson was, and has more power, so there's no reason not to put him on the half-season at Tennessee, half season at Iowa, September callup for 2014, assuming things progress.  But there's also a case to be made, if the Cubs aren't competitive, to try skipping that AAA move and trotting him out in Chicago every day after the All Star break.  Assuming that he will struggle mightily, like Jackson, Vitters and Rizzo, will he emerge in 2015 better for the experience and coaching?  As long as you don't psychologically break the guy (if that's what's even wrong with Jackson), why not?

 

The thing about the three case studies you've laid out is that Jackson failed and guys fail.  It just happens.  Castro was pre-Theo and I don't think he would have skipped AAA under this regime.  He's hadbeen working on his BB% and I think he could have been working on that in AAA and been more ready for the majors.  Of course being an all star his first two seasons is a nice arguement against.  Hopefully next year he'll be back to that.  Rizzo, under Theo and Jed in the BOS and SD systems, progressed at a similiar pace to Baez stopping AAA then heading to the Padres.  He struggled, got traded, went back to AAA, recovered, and had a good year last year. He's regressed this year (I know his peripherals explain some of that) but I think he'll be ok.  Young players have ups and downs.  I think its a plan that works and should for Baez.  Also, if they want him up he needs to have some time at 3rd, 2nd or outfield and with the article on Bryant maybe third isn't his position.

 

I also, think it should for Bryant.  Which is why having him as the Cubs starting 3B seems crazy.



#12 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 16 August 2013 - 05:40 PM

If you simplify the argument... I'm sure a lot of people would agree that Bryant would "do" better than the Valbuena/Ransom(/Murphy) platoon at 3B this year if he were to make it out of Spring Training. I'm sure the assumption would be that Olt and Vitters are not panning out and that Bryant's raw talent eclipses Villanueva's. 

 

In case you're wondering, that production would be:

463 AB, 106 H, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 67/111 BB/K, 26 2B, 2 3B, .229/.326/.436/.762

(with most of the production coming from Murphy and Ransom)



#13 jkppkj

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Posted 17 August 2013 - 02:50 PM

If you simplify the argument... I'm sure a lot of people would agree that Bryant would "do" better than the Valbuena/Ransom(/Murphy) platoon at 3B this year if he were to make it out of Spring Training. I'm sure the assumption would be that Olt and Vitters are not panning out and that Bryant's raw talent eclipses Villanueva's. 

 

In case you're wondering, that production would be:

463 AB, 106 H, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 67/111 BB/K, 26 2B, 2 3B, .229/.326/.436/.762

(with most of the production coming from Murphy and Ransom)

 

That's more production than we would have expected from the hodgepodge at 3rd, and more production than I would expect from Bryant in the bigs.  6HRs in 88 ABs between Rookie and A ball are nice, but really do little more than justify his draft position.

 

I'd be good with this next season from Bryant:

 

420 PA ,354 AB, 65 R,102 H,17 2B,1 3B, 28 HR, 82 RBI,61 BB,101 K,.288 AVG,.398 OBP,.579 SLG,.977 OPS

 

If he put them up in Tennesse.

 

Those are Olt's numbers at AA in 2012.

 

Maybe a few more HRs and 2Bs from Bryant is what I would guess.  

 

Seriously though folks, Bryant manning the hot corner in Wrigley next April?

I take that as seriously as I would take baseball projections from the (unrelated to Jesse Rogers) Brazilian woman named Jessie Rogers.



#14 fromthemitten

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Posted 23 August 2013 - 03:22 PM

I've heard rumblings that Bryant might provide better defense at a corner outfield spot a la Alex Gordon.



#15 hansman1982

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 08:30 AM

 

So, if the Cubs are no good in 2014, I guess you could make the case that Baez might as well learn baseball playing with the best players, if you can afford to wait out his growing pains.  His K rate, so far, is a bit higher at Tennessee than Jackson's was, but he's also younger than Jackson was, and has more power, so there's no reason not to put him on the half-season at Tennessee, half season at Iowa, September callup for 2014, assuming things progress.  But there's also a case to be made, if the Cubs aren't competitive, to try skipping that AAA move and trotting him out in Chicago every day after the All Star break.  Assuming that he will struggle mightily, like Jackson, Vitters and Rizzo, will he emerge in 2015 better for the experience and coaching?  As long as you don't psychologically break the guy (if that's what's even wrong with Jackson), why not?

 

The thing about the three case studies you've laid out is that Jackson failed and guys fail.  It just happens.  Castro was pre-Theo and I don't think he would have skipped AAA under this regime.  He's hadbeen working on his BB% and I think he could have been working on that in AAA and been more ready for the majors.  Of course being an all star his first two seasons is a nice arguement against.  Hopefully next year he'll be back to that.  Rizzo, under Theo and Jed in the BOS and SD systems, progressed at a similiar pace to Baez stopping AAA then heading to the Padres.  He struggled, got traded, went back to AAA, recovered, and had a good year last year. He's regressed this year (I know his peripherals explain some of that) but I think he'll be ok.  Young players have ups and downs.  I think its a plan that works and should for Baez.  Also, if they want him up he needs to have some time at 3rd, 2nd or outfield and with the article on Bryant maybe third isn't his position.

 

I also, think it should for Bryant.  Which is why having him as the Cubs starting 3B seems crazy.

 

 

One of these days the new approach is going to click for Castro and he is going to be scary good, as in .300/.375/.485 with solid D.






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