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Rizzo?


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31 replies to this topic

#16 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 11:22 AM

On average the #3 hitter will come to the plate with fewer runners on base than the 4 or 5. Many times he will come to the plate with nobody on and two outs.


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#17 TWC

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 11:24 AM

On average the #3 hitter will come to the plate with fewer runners on base than the 4 or 5. Many times he will come to the plate with nobody on and two outs.

 

Exactly.



#18 jh03

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 11:25 AM

 

I don't know why you think the fifth best hitter goes in the 3 hole.  Can someone explain this. 

 Your 3 hitter leads off innings less than anybody. So you can take his low OBP, good contact skills, there.



#19 jh03

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 11:25 AM

On average the #3 hitter will come to the plate with fewer runners on base than the 4 or 5. Many times he will come to the plate with nobody on and two outs.

Another quality point.  



#20 MichiganGoat

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 12:11 PM

Nate just pickup a couple of the books we've talked about on here and you'll start to see what we're talking about. The books are quite "heavy" and take time to disgest and understand, Fangraphs is also a great source and thier articles always find a way to simply the math into a good narrative.

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#21 Nate

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 01:10 PM

Nate just pickup a couple of the books we've talked about on here and you'll start to see what we're talking about. The books are quite "heavy" and take time to disgest and understand, Fangraphs is also a great source and thier articles always find a way to simply the math into a good narrative.

 

I actually found where I think a lot of this is summed up (http://www.beyondthe...-your-lineup-by) but The Book sounds good.  I'm just not sure MLB managers are following it.  I'm also not sure how important it really is in general.  This year, I don't care who hits where (Cubs aren't winning anything anyway).  I just want to see improvement from Rizzo and Castro, Lake continue to perform and get them all confidence and experience to be better next year

 

Also, this has been a great discussion so far with no real insults.  That's been awesome



#22 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 01:22 PM

The correct lineup construction will only be worth 1-2 wins a year. The managers are definitely working with sabermetrics now (some more than others). If you listen to some of the stuff Sveum says, you can hear him use some of it in his press conferences. I'm sure it is hard to talk about most of it in the press because the average fan doesn't know much about it. It is however starting to make it's way in. Look at stat Sundays for example.

 

(What was the original question?)


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#23 TWC

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 01:23 PM

 

Nate just pickup a couple of the books we've talked about on here and you'll start to see what we're talking about. The books are quite "heavy" and take time to disgest and understand, Fangraphs is also a great source and thier articles always find a way to simply the math into a good narrative.

 

I actually found where I think a lot of this is summed up (http://www.beyondthe...-your-lineup-by) but The Book sounds good.  I'm just not sure MLB managers are following it.  I'm also not sure how important it really is in general.  This year, I don't care who hits where (Cubs aren't winning anything anyway).  I just want to see improvement from Rizzo and Castro, Lake continue to perform and get them all confidence and experience to be better next year

 

Also, this has been a great discussion so far with no real insults.  That's been awesome

 

 

Most managers are probably not, but most managers are ex-ballplayers who have a lifetime of ingrained, "that's the way it was, that's the was it IS" baseball philosophy.  Most front offices, however, *are* using this info.  While they aren't the ones filling out the lineup card (necessarily), they wield their influence by acquiring ballplayers that fit the appropriate "mold" (via FA or MiLB) and by hiring and firing managers who do things according to the organizational philosophy that they set.

 

It's also important to keep in mind that the generalizations in The Book and Baseball Between The Lines are generalizations, and no single team is ever going to "fit" those generalizations.  When it comes to everyday lineups, these are people, not just stat lines.  I think Soriano's discomfort at batting out of the #1 spot in the order illustrates this well.  Based on his carer numbers, he really shouldn't have batted leadoff; however, he preferred it, and was more successful in that spot  than anywhere else.

 

Sabermetrically inclined generalizations are a really good guide.  But they're not the rule.



#24 Nate

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 01:33 PM

(What was the original question?)

 

Basically if Rizzo improves to 250 and 25 to 30 HR and maybe 85 to 95 RBI was it a good season/ Would you take that going forward?  Also, just saw an article on Rizzo on ESPN chicago.  The part about hard-hit average is interesting

 

http://espn.go.com/b...=espnapi_public



#25 jh03

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 01:40 PM

 

(What was the original question?)

 

Basically if Rizzo improves to 250 and 25 to 30 HR and maybe 85 to 95 RBI was it a good season/ Would you take that going forward?  Also, just saw an article on Rizzo on ESPN chicago.  The part about hard-hit average is interesting

 

http://espn.go.com/b...=espnapi_public

 

Personally, I am encouraged by what Rizzo has done this year. He's had an improvement in all the numbers you'd like to see (XBH, K%, BB%), despite battling bad luck. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a monster year next year.



#26 patg006

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 02:03 PM

Actually, when it comes to the Tigers, it would probably be to their advantage if Cabrera and Fielder were #1 an #2 in the lineup.  More at-bats by their best OPS guys = more runs = more wins.

 

If you dont think a line up is constructed to cause fits to a pitcher, you miss a fundamental part of baseball.

 

Well, kid, you're wrong about that.  Pitchers (and their coaching staffs) have long scouting reports on all the hitters they face.  They pitch (or attempt) to a hitter's cold zones.  If Hitter A can't hit an inside fastball to save his life, and has a tendency to swing wildly at the low, out-of-the-zone pitches, that's what he's gonna see regardless of whether it's Barry Bonds or Darwin Barney on deck.

 

Evidence?  Post Soriano trade (July 26,) Rizzo has had 93 at bats, 16 hits, with a whopping .172 average and 13 walks; so a .311 obp.

 

That's not evidence.  Those are just numbers.  Rizzo has struggled since late July.  That is a fact.  You claim that it's because pitchers are pitching to him differently.  Prove it.  Look at the logs of pitches that Rizzo has seen since July 26 and tell he how they differ from those during the first half of the season.  That is where you've staked your claim.  Let's see what you've got before you start congratulating yourself on how much you've "shown me up".  Please try to stay on task.

 

I'm assuming Miggy/Prince 1-2 is a joke.  

 

If player A cant hit inside fastballs but happens to be expecting a pitcher to paint the inside with fastballs, he would have to adapt, wouldnt he?  THat's whats becoming a successful hitter in the big leagues is about.  You get hot at the plate and pitching adjusts, you get cold, you readjust.  Well good hitters do that.  

 

If you got a man on 2nd and batter #3 (Rizzo) is up with one out and Soriano on deck, who are you going to pitch to?  THe intangibles of 'cold zones' are overhyped, you play 2K too much.  Batters will know a pitcher with a good fastball is gonna try and beat them whereever with their fastball.  I can load a scenario too.

 

If pitchers only focus on 'cold zones' as you suggest, then Alphonso Soriano should be batting 0 because every pitcher would know to throw outside breaking balls in the dirt he'd golf club and miss at.

 

Oh, and before July 26 Rizzo was batting .250 with an OBP of .340.  Complete drop in production, yet Nate Scheirholtz's production has gone up?  I wonder why?  Pitchers pitching around Rizzo to take their chances with Nate?  

 

Nah......Nate just has no cold zones......to think pitchers would consider him less of a threat and more likely to throw him more stuff to hit because he has no history of anything else besides being a bench player in the Bay is completely absurd......

 

Cold zones everybody.  Remember that.  2K baseball is akin to the real life, everyday mlb



#27 jh03

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 02:12 PM

Well, there went the good discussion Nate was talking about.



#28 TWC

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 02:21 PM

WTF is 2K?  You're awfully smarmy about it.

 

Anyway, you can hold your answer to that until you look at the logs of pitches that Rizzo has seen since July 26 and tell me how they differ from those during the first half of the season.  Remember that?  You know, the only way to substantiate your claim that pitchers are pitching differently to him?  That was way back before you started your irrelevant anecdotes about Alfonso Soriano and Nate Scheirholtz and whatnot.  Oh, and 2K.  Whatever that is.



#29 jh03

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 02:30 PM

Yeah, anybody who's anything plays The Show over 2K, any day... duh....



#30 TWC

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 02:32 PM

Yeah, anybody who's anything plays The Show over 2K, any day... duh....

 

Oh, gotcha.  It's a game.  Weird.  I don't really get why he brought it up.  I'm sure I'll get the answer to that as soon as he presents Rizzo's pitching logs.






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