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Nate McLouth and Rajai Davis platoon better value than Choo.


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#1 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 23 September 2013 - 07:35 PM

Speaking in value and long term plan, Nate McLouth and Rajai Davis in a platoon would cost roughly 1/3 of what it will take to sign Shin-Soo Choo (and 5 years less on a contract). The facts are that McLouth and Davis are better defensively, steal more bases, while striking out less and could play any OF spot comfortably. They would also be legitimate lead-off hitters. 

 

Saving $10-15M would help with the posting process if we're to go after Mashiro Tanaka aggressively. Or we could use that money to retain Navarro, Baker, etc...

 

Crunching the raw numbers, it would be similar production, keeping in mind that Choo has 25HBP and 5 IBB this year.

 

155 H, 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 105 R, 52 RBI, 109 BB, 131 K, 18SB/11CS, .283/.423/.462 (Choo)

163 H, 32 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 092 R, 43 RBI, 054 BB, 108 K, 56SB/10CS, .262/.315/.390 (McLouth/Davis)

 



#2 King Jeff

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Posted 23 September 2013 - 09:26 PM

155 H, 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 105 R, 52 RBI, 109 BB, 131 K, 18SB/11CS, .283/.423/.462 (Choo)

163 H, 32 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 092 R, 43 RBI, 054 BB, 108 K, 56SB/10CS, .262/.315/.390 (McLouth/Davis)

 

OBP is probably the single most important stat when looking at Choo.  McLouth and Davis don't even come close to matching him there. 



#3 hansman1982

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:03 AM

Speaking in value and long term plan, Nate McLouth and Rajai Davis in a platoon would cost roughly 1/3 of what it will take to sign Shin-Soo Choo (and 5 years less on a contract). The facts are that McLouth and Davis are better defensively, steal more bases, while striking out less and could play any OF spot comfortably. They would also be legitimate lead-off hitters. 

 

Saving $10-15M would help with the posting process if we're to go after Mashiro Tanaka aggressively. Or we could use that money to retain Navarro, Baker, etc...

 

Crunching the raw numbers, it would be similar production, keeping in mind that Choo has 25HBP and 5 IBB this year.

 

155 H, 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 105 R, 52 RBI, 109 BB, 131 K, 18SB/11CS, .283/.423/.462 (Choo)

163 H, 32 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 092 R, 43 RBI, 054 BB, 108 K, 56SB/10CS, .262/.315/.390 (McLouth/Davis)

 

In what world does a pair of folks putting up a .705 OPS match the production of a guy putting up an .885 OPS?

 

For some reason he gets IBB a lot and HBP a lot.  This year is 10 HBP over his career norms but even taking that down leaves him with a ~.415 OBP.

 

Navarro I don't really want back next year and Baker shouldn't cost much money going into next year.  I also strenuously object to the Cubs being so broke as they couldn't afford to get Tanaka and Choo.



#4 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:12 AM

 

Speaking in value and long term plan, Nate McLouth and Rajai Davis in a platoon would cost roughly 1/3 of what it will take to sign Shin-Soo Choo (and 5 years less on a contract). The facts are that McLouth and Davis are better defensively, steal more bases, while striking out less and could play any OF spot comfortably. They would also be legitimate lead-off hitters. 

 

Saving $10-15M would help with the posting process if we're to go after Mashiro Tanaka aggressively. Or we could use that money to retain Navarro, Baker, etc...

 

Crunching the raw numbers, it would be similar production, keeping in mind that Choo has 25HBP and 5 IBB this year.

 

155 H, 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 105 R, 52 RBI, 109 BB, 131 K, 18SB/11CS, .283/.423/.462 (Choo)

163 H, 32 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 092 R, 43 RBI, 054 BB, 108 K, 56SB/10CS, .262/.315/.390 (McLouth/Davis)

 

In what world does a pair of folks putting up a .705 OPS match the production of a guy putting up an .885 OPS?

 

For some reason he gets IBB a lot and HBP a lot.  This year is 10 HBP over his career norms but even taking that down leaves him with a ~.415 OBP.

 

Navarro I don't really want back next year and Baker shouldn't cost much money going into next year.  I also strenuously object to the Cubs being so broke as they couldn't afford to get Tanaka and Choo.

 

I wasn't taking you serious until you strenuously objected. If you would have only objected I would have just laughed you off.


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#5 Luke

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:55 AM

 

 

 

155 H, 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 105 R, 52 RBI, 109 BB, 131 K, 18SB/11CS, .283/.423/.462 (Choo)

163 H, 32 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 092 R, 43 RBI, 054 BB, 108 K, 56SB/10CS, .262/.315/.390 (McLouth/Davis)

 

In what world does a pair of folks putting up a .705 OPS match the production of a guy putting up an .885 OPS?

 

 

Pretty much my thoughts as well.  

 

I don't see the comparison here.  If anything this just helps highlight how valuable Choo really is.



#6 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:25 AM

Can Choo play RF in Wrigley? If Bryant doesn't stick at 3B won't he have to move to LF?


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#7 Rizzo1684

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 12:56 PM

Choo can handle RF and if the Cubs signed Choo and Tanaka I would be so excited.  If they just made those 2 moves, picked up a backup catcher on the cheap, and maybe a bounce back type starter.  I don't think its wrong to think the Cubs could contend for a wild card spot, If some things bounced the Cubs way.

Castro

Choo

Rizzo

Schierholtz

Castillo

Olt/Murphy

Sweeney

Valbuena.

 

Then in the 2nd half of the season we can bring up Baez, Alcantara, and Bryant if they are all ready and have a lineup of: 

Alcantara 

Choo

Baez

Rizzo

Bryant if he's not ready insert Schierholtz or another OF

Castillo

Castro

Sweeney.  WOW SIGN ME UP!!!!



#8 hansman1982

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 02:03 PM

 

 

Speaking in value and long term plan, Nate McLouth and Rajai Davis in a platoon would cost roughly 1/3 of what it will take to sign Shin-Soo Choo (and 5 years less on a contract). The facts are that McLouth and Davis are better defensively, steal more bases, while striking out less and could play any OF spot comfortably. They would also be legitimate lead-off hitters. 

 

Saving $10-15M would help with the posting process if we're to go after Mashiro Tanaka aggressively. Or we could use that money to retain Navarro, Baker, etc...

 

Crunching the raw numbers, it would be similar production, keeping in mind that Choo has 25HBP and 5 IBB this year.

 

155 H, 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 105 R, 52 RBI, 109 BB, 131 K, 18SB/11CS, .283/.423/.462 (Choo)

163 H, 32 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 092 R, 43 RBI, 054 BB, 108 K, 56SB/10CS, .262/.315/.390 (McLouth/Davis)

 

In what world does a pair of folks putting up a .705 OPS match the production of a guy putting up an .885 OPS?

 

For some reason he gets IBB a lot and HBP a lot.  This year is 10 HBP over his career norms but even taking that down leaves him with a ~.415 OBP.

 

Navarro I don't really want back next year and Baker shouldn't cost much money going into next year.  I also strenuously object to the Cubs being so broke as they couldn't afford to get Tanaka and Choo.

 

I wasn't taking you serious until you strenuously objected. If you would have only objected I would have just laughed you off.

 

 

I'll take 1990's references for $500, Alex.



#9 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:47 PM

2.5 UZR, 0.2 ErrR, 3.5 UZR/150, 3 rPM - McLouth

-2.3 UZR, 0.4 ErrR, -3.5 UZR/150, 5 rPM - Davis

-14.6 UZR, -0.5 ErrR, -14.9 UZR/150, -17 rPM - Choo



#10 King Jeff

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 04:01 PM

2.5 UZR, 0.2 ErrR, 3.5 UZR/150, 3 rPM - McLouth

-2.3 UZR, 0.4 ErrR, -3.5 UZR/150, 5 rPM - Davis

-14.6 UZR, -0.5 ErrR, -14.9 UZR/150, -17 rPM - Choo

McLouth has played primarily in left, while Davis has played all over the place and Choo has played almost exclusively in center.   I think Choo would be in left, Schierholtz in right, and Bogusevic/Lake/Sweeney will fill out the rest of the OF depending on who's pitching.  I don't think Choo's UZR or defensive metrics in center are going to matter much, especially when comparing them to players who play other positions.  



#11 Internet Random

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 04:07 PM

 

I'll take 1990's references for $500, Alex.

 

"I strenuously object?" Is that how it works? Hmm? "Objection." "Overruled." "Oh, no, no, no. No, I strenuously object." "Oh. Well, if you strenuously object, then I should take some time to reconsider."


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#12 NathanDonald13

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 10:17 PM

If we sign Choo would the Cubs lose 2014 second round pick or 2015? If the Cubs lose a pick would they also lose draft pool money? If they sign Choo and don't lose money they could than draft more overslot picks in the first 10 rounds with the money saved from no second round pick.



#13 hansman1982

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 11:38 PM

If we sign Choo would the Cubs lose 2014 second round pick or 2015? If the Cubs lose a pick would they also lose draft pool money? If they sign Choo and don't lose money they could than draft more overslot picks in the first 10 rounds with the money saved from no second round pick.

 

They'd lose the 2nd round pick in next summer's draft and the corresponding slot value.



#14 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 06:28 AM

 

If we sign Choo would the Cubs lose 2014 second round pick or 2015? If the Cubs lose a pick would they also lose draft pool money? If they sign Choo and don't lose money they could than draft more overslot picks in the first 10 rounds with the money saved from no second round pick.

They'd lose the 2nd round pick in next summer's draft and the corresponding slot value.

If the Reds make a qualifying offer. And, Yes, they would also lose the slot money (which might actually hurt more).


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#15 King Jeff

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Posted 27 September 2013 - 10:17 AM

 

 

If we sign Choo would the Cubs lose 2014 second round pick or 2015? If the Cubs lose a pick would they also lose draft pool money? If they sign Choo and don't lose money they could than draft more overslot picks in the first 10 rounds with the money saved from no second round pick.

They'd lose the 2nd round pick in next summer's draft and the corresponding slot value.

If the Reds make a qualifying offer. And, Yes, they would also lose the slot money (which might actually hurt more).

 

Not only that, it means giving Cincy a very good draft pick next year. 






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