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How much money do we really have to spend?


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15 replies to this topic

#1 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 25 September 2013 - 07:34 PM

$10.25M Matt Garza
$9.80M Carlos Marmol
$8.00M Edwin Jackson (signing bonus)
$6.00M Scott Feldman
$5.50M Scott Baker
$5.00M Alfonso Soriano (saved by trade)
$4.25M David DeJesus
$2.50M Scott Hairston
$2.20M Ian Stewart
$2.00M Dioner Navarro
$2.00M Anthony Rizzo (signing bonus)
-------------------------------------------------
$57.50M available

$13.0M Alfonso Soriano
$11.0M Edwin Jackson
$5.00M Starlin Castro
$5.00M Carlos Villanueva
$4.00M Kyuji Fujikawa
$4.25M Nate Schierholtz (arb estimate)
$3.75M Jeff Samardzija (arb estimate)
$2.45M Daniel Bard (if contract tendered)
$2.00M Jorge Soler
$1.70M James Russell (arb estimate)
$1.25M Anthony Rizzo
$1.20M Luis Valbuena (if contract tendered)
$0.95M Travis Wood (arb estimate)
$0.85M Darwin Barney (arb estimate)
$0.75M Donnie Murphy (if contract tendered)
$0.70M Darnell McDonald (if contract tendered)
$57.85M

$0.52M x 20 league minimum players = $10.4M

5 roster spots dedicated for free agent acquisitions

$68.25M committed including arbitration raise estimates, $57.50M available to spend on 5 free agents.

That's what I came up with.

#2 King Jeff

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 07:43 AM

Wood may be getting an extension shortly, and I think you are a little low on some of the arbitration numbers.  You're also assuming that they are going to maintain the payroll, which is less than certain at this point.  Regardless, I think they should still have around 30 million to put back into the payroll this offseason. 



#3 hansman1982

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 09:35 AM

That's a $125M payroll for next year.  That ain't gonna happen.



#4 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 09:54 AM

It happened this year, even though we're listed at $106M by Cot's.

 

Forgot Pedro Strop is a 1st year arb in 2014.

 

Some websites say that Ryan Sweeney is "extended" because he signed a minor league contract with us this year and others report he's a free agent next year... don't know what the real deal is on that.



#5 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 10:41 AM

It happened this year, even though we're listed at $106M by Cot's.

 

Forgot Pedro Strop is a 1st year arb in 2014.

 

Some websites say that Ryan Sweeney is "extended" because he signed a minor league contract with us this year and others report he's a free agent next year... don't know what the real deal is on that.

It did not happen this year. They are going to be at $107,375,524 at years end. There isn't going to be nearly as much turnover going forward. We are getting to the point where players are going to start coming up and we need to have a base to build off of. They will still flip a couple of Sweeny's and the like, but there won't be the wholesales of the last couple of years.


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#6 Rizzo1684

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Posted 26 September 2013 - 01:36 PM

Sweeney is a free agent.  I believe the Cubs will have around 30 million to spend this off season as well unless the Ricketts realize they need to put more money into the team so they get better attendance.  



#7 preacherman86

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 07:38 PM

So the question becomes...with all the in house options we have already...with 30 mil....could you theoretically land all of Choo, Tanaka, and Cory Hart? btw, I know nobody else has jumped on the Cory Hart bandwagon, but he is fairly young, coming off injury (buy low), and has put up some very respectable numbers. Even on a two year deal it buys the club time to develop the outfield prospects instead of rushing them. year and a half until Soler is realistic. Bryant at least a year. Even Baez could be a year. Almora at least 2. We won't have a glut of outfield talent for a few years. Having two proven guys out there with Lake would benefit Lake's growth and those guys, and if Vitters or Bryant force the issue then Lake becomes a 4th or Hart becomes a great matchup guy or flippable piece. thoughts?



#8 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 28 September 2013 - 08:20 PM

There's a nice article at fangraphs about the increasingly high strike out rate and lack of power for players over a certain height and age (probably type of swing, too, I think the article came out last year). I know Corey Hart was one of the examples in that article.

 

With his bad knee (now knees), he plausibly cannot play RF anymore. In 2012, he started 97 games in 1B and 49 in RF. He'd be nice to have on the bench vs LHP and platoon with Anthony Rizzo at 1B, but then, you have to decide if he's worth the roster spot, the developmental lag for Rizzo that comes with that, and especially when we have a large numbers of candidates in the farm system that need to be placed on the roster for Rule 5 protection.

 

Would Hart even consider signing with a team that would utilize him only off the bench, when all he has to do is displace Betancourt off of 1B in Milwaukee?



#9 preacherman86

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 07:24 PM

That article is going to be screaming small sample size....b/c less than 1.2% of professional baseball players stand above 6'6". Adam Dunn and Richie Sexson are two that come to mind are both guys that have always been huge strikeout guys.



#10 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 12:27 AM

[$15.0M] .297/.355/.421, .341wOBA - CF Jacoby Ellsbury (L)

[$0.55M] .285/.333/.430, .336wOBA - RF Junior Lake

[$0.55M] .274/.349/.397, .331wOBA - C Welington Castillo

[$1.25M] .233/.324/.419, .325wOBA - 1B Anthony Rizzo (L)

[$0.55M] .295/.380/.511, .396wOBA - 3B Josh Vitters (AAA) [if healthy]

[$1.00M] .279/.329/.471, .346wOBA - LF Brian Bogusevic (L)

[$1.00M] .255/.319/.530, .368wOBA - 2B Donnie Murphy

[$5.00M] .245/.284/.347, .282wOBA - SS Starlin Castro

---------

[$2.65M] .260/.312/.375, .304wOBA - CF Rajai Davis

[$1.00M] .299/.322/.371, .305wOBA - C Wil Nieves

[$1.05M] .218/.331/.378, .315wOBA - 3B Luis Valbuena (L)

[$0.55M] .206/.270/.206, .224wOBA - 2B Logan Watkins (L)

[$1.00M] .288/.339/.423, .336wOBA - LF Darnell McDonald

-31.15-

[$16.2M] 4.1 WAR, 3.05 FIP, 7.45K/9 - David Price (L)

[$3.45M] 2.5 WAR, 3.83 FIP, 9.10K/9 - Jeff Samardzija

[$1.25M] 2.8 WAR, 3.89 FIP, 6.48K/9 - Travis Wood (L)

[$11.0M] 2.0 WAR, 3.79 FIP, 6.93K/9 - Edwin Jackson

[$5.00M] 1.0 WAR, 3.86 FIP, 7.20K/9 - Carlos Villanueva

-36.90-

[$2.40M] 1.6 WAR, 2.96 FIP, 9.12K/9 - Daniel Bard (2011 as reliever)

[$0.75M] 0.9 WAR, 2.26 FIP, 10.75K/9 - Pedro Strop

[$0.55M] 0.6 WAR, 2.89 FIP, 10.68K/9 - Blake Parker

[$0.55M] 0.2 WAR, 2.60 FIP, 8.00K/9 - Justin Grimm

[$4.00M] 0.2 WAR, 2.80 FIP, 10.50K/9 - Kyuji Fujikawa (60-day DL)

[$1.00M] 0.2 WAR, 2.81 FIP, 6.39K/9 - Matt Guerrier (60-day DL)

[$0.55M] 0.1 WAR, 4.75 FIP, 4.88K/9 - Chris Rusin (L)

[$1.25M] 0.0 WAR, 4.45 FIP, 6.32K/9 - James Russell (L)

[$0.55M] 0.0 WAR, 4.55 FIP, 10.80K/9 - Zach Putnam

-11.60-

$79.65M

+ $13.0M Soriano

+ $10.4M 15/40 man

=

$103.05M

 

Schierholtz, Barney, Almora, Olt, and Blackburn for 2 years of Price.

 

[$0.55M] .333/.387/.719, .491wOBA - 3B Kris Bryant (A+)

[$0.55M] .299/.352/.650, .442wOBA - 2B Javier Baez (AA)

Both will be in the lineup for the 2nd half of the season, Vitters will be moved to LF and platoon with Bogusevic, or win the job outright.

 

That's 7 more wins with the pitching staff (even if Russell has another down year) and 9.5 more wins with the lineup (even if Castro and Rizzo have another down year).

 

That's a .500 team on the field to start the beginning of the season.



#11 MichiganGoat

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 06:16 AM

"Schierholtz, Barney, Almora, Olt, and Blackburn for 2 years of Price"

If I'm Tampa I'd say pass, I wouldn't care about 3/5 of that trade and only one name really impresses me. Tampa is not going to want Barney and until Olt shows he's improved I'd stay away. Tampa would want either Baez or more pitching prospects. If you replace Barney with CJ Edwards then Tampa listens.

Remember there are other teams that are on the cusp of the playoffs and will bid high to win Price, think what KC gave up to get Shields and Price is the better pitcher. Let's not think we can get a stud without giving up multiple prospect studs.

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#12 hansman1982

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 07:34 AM

Are these supposed to be predictions for next year?

 

If so:

 

[$0.55M] .295/.380/.511, .396wOBA - 3B Josh Vitters (AAA) [if healthy]

 

what in the hell are you smoking and can you pass it?  A .891 OPS from Josh Vitters?



#13 Mike Taylor (no relation)

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 07:52 AM

Those are the numbers Josh Vitters put up this year in his limited playing time at AAA Iowa.



#14 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 08:22 AM

So, if he posted them in a small sample size in AAA, he is sure to put up no less in the Bigs?


"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, it's the fat that makes you look fat." - Al Bundy

 

"Ow" - Dylan Bundy


#15 hansman1982

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 08:37 AM

[$0.55M] .333/.387/.719, .491wOBA - 3B Kris Bryant (A+)

[$0.55M] .299/.352/.650, .442wOBA - 2B Javier Baez (AA)

Both will be in the lineup for the 2nd half of the season, Vitters will be moved to LF and platoon with Bogusevic, or win the job outright.

 

 

Also, how do we get David Price and still have Baez?  Dealing with Tampa they will require us to part with Baez, there will be no swapping out.






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