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Hey, MLB...check out the parity in the NFL


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#1 Oswego Chris

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 10:52 AM

The most popular sports league in the United States(sorry, I know BN is a baseball site) is the NFL. The NFL does some things very wrong, like the way they are handling the CTE  and concsussion problem.(have you watched League of Denial yet?) However, Czar Goodall and the NFL do some things correctly...and the MLB could learn a thing or two.

 

After the Chargers dismantled the Colts last night (raise your hand if you saw that coming...), 21 of the 32 teams in the NFL are sitting with a record of .500 or better.  Therefore 66 percent of the teams could be considered strong play-off contenders. Thus this sets up some interesting match-ups for the better part of the season(they just won't all be on Monday Night...sigh) In the NFC you have 10 teams fighting for 6 spots(2-3 Carolina could make it 11)...with only New Orleans and Seattle at 5-1. In the AFC you have 11 teams fighting for 6 spots, with the Chiefs and Broncos at 6-0, and the Patriots at 5-1.  Statistically, the 5-1 and 6-0 teams have a much greater chance of taking a play-off spot, therefore you really have 8 teams fighting for 4 spots in the NFC and 8 teams fighting for 3 spots in the AFC.

 

...and they will fight, and it will be glorious for us to watch.

 

On June 6th of this year, a date almost equivalent to where we are currently in the NFL in terms of percentage of games played, there were only 15 MLB teams out of 30 who were at least at .500, or within 6 games of a division lead. (8 AL, 7 NL) There were 8 teams already 10 games behind their respective division leaders....27%.  Keep in mind as well that 4 of the 10 "play-off" spots in the MLB of are those "we get at least 1 more game" wild-card variety.

 

To summarize:

 

NFL after 38 percent of season= 66% teams in the hunt, 18% slim chance(2-4 or less), 16% looking at next years draft.

MLB after 38 percent of season= 50% teams in the hunt, 23 % not quite out(the Dodgers were here!) and 27% wait until next year.

 

To Guess-timate

 

NFL has 75-80 percent of fans still with some hope, 20-25 percent hope-less.

MLB had 50-60 percent of fans still with hope, and close to 40 percent hope-less.

 

Now, I can be as old-schooly as any when it comes to baseball...but I think keeping more fans interested is generally a good idea.  At least get rid of the silly 1-game play-off deal...play 3 or 5.  Baseball is a great game...but they adapt and change at a glacial pace.

 

Feel free to shoot holes in all of these points...

 

...oh, and one more thing... the NFL is talking about expanding their play-offs.

 

@BBCG104Reasons



#2 hansman1982

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 11:32 AM

"At least get rid of the silly 1-game play-off deal...play 3 or 5"

 

No, I think MLB should do MOAR 1-game playoff deals.  You want the World Series to draw in casual fans that haven't watched a lick of baseball the rest of the year.  1 game winner take all-a-palooza. 



#3 Oswego Chris

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 12:06 PM

it's just not the same type of sport, in my opinion for 1 game play-offs



#4 CubChymyst

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 12:06 PM

The number of games played make a huge difference. 60 games allow for a much large distribution then 6 games. The one thing I think could help is less games, which will never happen. That way each games means more. I think that is what helps out the NFL so much, is that each game plays a much larger factor in who makes the playoffs and who does not. Play a few less games, would allow fewer games during cold weather months, and allow the additional wild card games to be played (not that i'm for that). 



#5 Oswego Chris

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 01:26 PM

a way to have the best of both worlds would be to bring back double-headers....TRUE double-headers....not the day-night get the most money possible kind...

 

you are right that 60 out of 162 is not necessarily the same as 6 out of 16...

 

I should have talked about the beginnning of the season...there are probably 12-15 MLB teams you can eliminate before the season starts...NFL has built in parity of strength of sched...salary cap...etc....lots of worst to firsts....



#6 CubChymyst

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Posted 15 October 2013 - 01:38 PM

I'd be fine with more double headers, because they are not going to shorten the schedule. The other thing with the NFL is coaching changes make a bigger difference and drafted players make an impact sooner as well. Look at the past few years in the NFL and what rookie quarterbacks have done.  A comparison to the MLB would be if Bryant changed the Cubs to a 0.500 team by himself next year (so he have to be a 10+ WAR player). A rookie supplying that many wins just doesn't happen (unless the name is Mike Trout) in the MLB.






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