14 replies to this topic

[Brian in San Diego]

Hi everyone, first time posting here and love your stuff, Brett!
English is my 2nd language and it is almost intimidating to post anything here when you know former lawyer and school teachers will read your post and say something about your grammar and selection of words and stuff. But I am posting this because I think many people here need to have better understanding of Darvish. So please excuse my poor English.

I believe he will be very successful in MLB

We all know he is 18/6 with ERA 1.44 pitcher this year. In his very first game of this year, he allowed 7 runs in 7 innings. His ERA is 1.20 without the first game. After his first game this year, He was starting pitcher for 27 more games this year and ALL 27 were quality starts. He gave chance to win the game 27 times in a row and that was this season. He could throw one more game but he didn't throw it for his post season game. In that 28 games he pitched 8.29 innings per game.
He is very capable of pitch every 5th days. Reason I believe he can pitch in MLB is that he can change his style easily. What I mean by that is he can be fastball pitcher one day and can throw lots of off speed pitches very next day, if he needs to. Here is the example....

He pitched against league's strongest line up in his last game of regular season and pitched complete game with 3 hits 1BB and 15K. Very next game was 1st game of the post season and he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run with 7K. Here is breakdown of his pitches in these two games.

10/11/11 - The last game of regular season
4S FB: avg 94.7 mph (61%)
Slider: avg 80.8 mph (27%)
Fork: avg 87.1 mph (5%)
Cut Fast: avg 90.4 mph (4%)
2S FB: avg 93.4 mph (2%)
Curb: avg 67.5 mph (1%)
Change up : avg 81.3 mph (1%)

The first game of PO
4S FB: avg 94.6 mph (40%)
Slider: avg 83 mph (29%)
Change up: avg 85.7 mph (12%)
2S FB: avg 94.4 mph (10%)
Cut Fast: avg 91.3 mph (8%)
Fork: avg 89.4 mph (2%)

In the first game, he threw lot of fast balls and got 15K and very next game he threw more off speed pitches and got 7K. And Fast ball speed at avg 94-95 mph for a starter is very rare. MLB has only 4 pitchers in that range. Matsuzaka threw fastball at 91.9 mph in avg in his first year of MLB.

He can throw all his pitches with perfect control. When he is not 100%, he still find one of his off speed pitch and win the game. When he knows his pitch count will be high, he slows down and keeps the pace at the level of the game.

His team is in Sapporo which is similar to Minnesota in weather wise. Nippon Ham's home is Dome Field. But he didn't pitch better at home. He pitched away from home in 14 games and he was 10/2 with ERA 1.34. Many people think he is better fit to Blue Jay but I don't agree. Nippon Ham is small market team and don't have powerful line up nor good defense. He is perfect pitcher for Chicago Cubs and Epstein & Co knows everything I mentioned here today. I hope Blue Jay is not the highest bidder.
Go Cubs Go !!!!
Thanks for reading!!!

[Fishin Phil]

Thanks for the great info!

[SirCub]

Great stuff Brian! I was already excited for Darvish, but now I hope the Cubs win the bid even more!

[Hawkeye]

English is my first (and only) language and I sure didn't find anything to complain about. Well said, and thanks for the info.

[TWC]

[I]t is almost intimidating to post anything here when you know former lawyer and school teachers will read your post and say something about your grammar and selection of words and stuff.

Don't forget about the persnickety landscape architects, Brian. We're deadly.

But thanks for the info/stats. Interesting stuff. Anyone care to explain to me what a "folk" pitch is?

[Brian in San Diego]

Ha!
I meant Fork Ball not "Folk".
I will be very careful and keep an eye on architects and English majors too. Thanks!

[TWC]

Ha!
I meant Fork Ball not "Folk".

Cool. That's what I thought. Seems like Darvish has quite a number of options when he's up there on the mound. I'm excited to see him in a Cubs uniform.

[NebCub]

Is there any pitchers on MLB right now that has SEVEN pitches that they have complete control of? Thats one of the biggest reasons why I think he will have great success over here.

[Brett]

Great stuff, Brian. Thanks for sharing all of that.

[timcubfan]

Hi everyone, first time posting here and love your stuff, Brett!
English is my 2nd language and it is almost intimidating to post anything here when you know former lawyer and school teachers will read your post and say something about your grammar and selection of words and stuff. But I am posting this because I think many people here need to have better understanding of Darvish. So please excuse my poor English.

I believe he will be very successful in MLB

We all know he is 18/6 with ERA 1.44 pitcher this year. In his very first game of this year, he allowed 7 runs in 7 innings. His ERA is 1.20 without the first game. After his first game this year, He was starting pitcher for 27 more games this year and ALL 27 were quality starts. He gave chance to win the game 27 times in a row and that was this season. He could throw one more game but he didn't throw it for his post season game. In that 28 games he pitched 8.29 innings per game.
He is very capable of pitch every 5th days. Reason I believe he can pitch in MLB is that he can change his style easily. What I mean by that is he can be fastball pitcher one day and can throw lots of off speed pitches very next day, if he needs to. Here is the example....

He pitched against league's strongest line up in his last game of regular season and pitched complete game with 3 hits 1BB and 15K. Very next game was 1st game of the post season and he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run with 7K. Here is breakdown of his pitches in these two games.

10/11/11 - The last game of regular season
4S FB: avg 94.7 mph (61%)
Slider: avg 80.8 mph (27%)
Fork: avg 87.1 mph (5%)
Cut Fast: avg 90.4 mph (4%)
2S FB: avg 93.4 mph (2%)
Curb: avg 67.5 mph (1%)
Change up : avg 81.3 mph (1%)

The first game of PO
4S FB: avg 94.6 mph (40%)
Slider: avg 83 mph (29%)
Change up: avg 85.7 mph (12%)
2S FB: avg 94.4 mph (10%)
Cut Fast: avg 91.3 mph (8%)
Fork: avg 89.4 mph (2%)

In the first game, he threw lot of fast balls and got 15K and very next game he threw more off speed pitches and got 7K. And Fast ball speed at avg 94-95 mph for a starter is very rare. MLB has only 4 pitchers in that range. Matsuzaka threw fastball at 91.9 mph in avg in his first year of MLB.

He can throw all his pitches with perfect control. When he is not 100%, he still find one of his off speed pitch and win the game. When he knows his pitch count will be high, he slows down and keeps the pace at the level of the game.

His team is in Sapporo which is similar to Minnesota in weather wise. Nippon Ham's home is Dome Field. But he didn't pitch better at home. He pitched away from home in 14 games and he was 10/2 with ERA 1.34. Many people think he is better fit to Blue Jay but I don't agree. Nippon Ham is small market team and don't have powerful line up nor good defense. He is perfect pitcher for Chicago Cubs and Epstein & Co knows everything I mentioned here today. I hope Blue Jay is not the highest bidder.
Go Cubs Go !!!!
Thanks for reading!!!

Great post-Thanks

[Cubsfankevin]

a rotation of Garza, Darvish, Dempster, Zambrano, and Wells would lead to a successful year in my opinion

[hansman1982]

One thing to consider, from what I have read is the Japanese ball is smaller but with more pronounced stiches, which allows a pitcher to throw a sharper, more controllable breaking ball, think whiffle ball.

[Brian in San Diego]

One thing to consider, from what I have read is the Japanese ball is smaller but with more pronounced stiches, which allows a pitcher to throw a sharper, more controllable breaking ball, think whiffle ball.

It was true until last year. They changed it to MLB Standard this year and total number of Home Runs has reduced by 41.5% this year. And Darvish posted his best record this year. He is actually better pitcher with the MLB ball.

[ncsujuri]

Great post Brian, I had no idea they used a different ball in Japan or that they just changed to MLB recently. One would think that a bigger target and less pitcher control though would actually INCREASE homeruns.

[Dougy D]

Wow, thanks for all of the info, Brian. I'll have to say that I wasn't a fan of spending HUGE money just to have a chance to sign Darvish to start. Your information that you have shared has kind of turned me towards thinking that it wouldn't be such a bad deal to get him. The Cubs have lacked pitchers with good control and could definitely use him if he is as good as you say.

I guess we'll see what happens with the posting and I will definitely pull for him if he's wearing a blue hat with a red C on it.