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# Something to Keep You Busy in the Offseason

49 replies to this topic

### #46 Katie

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Posted 30 October 2013 - 03:59 PM

You guys are nerds. I go by which team has the highest number of hot asses. Tiebreaker goes to the best uniforms. Duh.

And you're our Queen.

I've never been more proud in my life.

Well, except for the time I was 2nd runner up in the Miss Sunnyvale Trailer Park beauty pageant.
Peg: Oh Al! Did you miss me?
Al: With every bullet, so far.

### #47 Luke

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 05:46 PM

First reaction - that coach is an idiot.

Second reaction - .... but maybe if I...

Third reaction - Odd daydream combination of Hari Seldon and a World Series parade.

So, for the sake of argument, let's pretend it is possible to predict the score of a single game.

In effect, that means predicting the number of runs for both teams.

I'm sort of thinking that it theoretically could be possible to cobble Team A's offense numbers and Team B's pitching numbers into a run prediction for Team A.

Something like:

C1*wOBA + C2*OppWHIP = Runs +  Error

Where C1 and C2 are constants derived from working on previous seasons of data and OppWHIP represents the WHIP of the opposing pitcher(s).

Here's the problem - it would take a lot of data to calculate those constants with any degree of remote accuracy, even if such a thing were possible (and I don't think it is).

### #48 Luke

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 07:45 PM

An idea:

(Projected opposing pitcher runs allowed per game)

__________________________________________     *   (Team average runs per game)

(League average pitcher runs allowed per game)

I'm actually sort of curious to see how many correct scores that would predict over a 162 game season.

### #49 hansman1982

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 08:42 PM

An idea:

(Projected opposing pitcher runs allowed per game)

__________________________________________     *   (Team average runs per game)

(League average pitcher runs allowed per game)

I'm actually sort of curious to see how many correct scores that would predict over a 162 game season.

You could factor that for IP by the starter and the average BP RA along with the RS by the opposing offense (utilize wOBA of each player starting) to get the expected runs allowed.  Then do the inverse for the hitting side.

### #50 jh03

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 03:52 PM

An idea:

(Projected opposing pitcher runs allowed per game)

__________________________________________     *   (Team average runs per game)

(League average pitcher runs allowed per game)

I'm actually sort of curious to see how many correct scores that would predict over a 162 game season.

You could factor that for IP by the starter and the average BP RA along with the RS by the opposing offense (utilize wOBA of each player starting) to get the expected runs allowed.  Then do the inverse for the hitting side.

This is exactly why I posted this here. I knew it wasn't actually possible at the HS level, but I thought you guys might have fun trying to actually come up with something to try out.

Also, he's not a coach. Just a very interactive fan lol.

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