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Predicting the Playoffs II: Results

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#1 OCCubFan


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Posted 31 October 2013 - 05:54 AM

Before the playoffs began, I posted the predictions of 5 methods such as regular-season record and regular-season run differential. http://www.bleachern...g-the-playoffs/ Five people added their predictions. How did the predictions work out?


Because one-game playoffs are pretty much toss-ups, I differentiated between the one-game playoffs (AL tiebreaker and the two wild card games) and the rest of the series. For the human predictions, if someone did not have the correct teams in a series (because, for example, they picked Cleveland to win the WC), then that series was not counted for that person. I list the results as: correct calls/games for one-game playoffs; correct calls/series for other series.


Regular-season record: 1/ 2; 4/6

Regular-season run differential: 0/3; 6/7

September record: 2/3; 4/7

September run differential: 0/3; 5/7

Baseball Prospectus 3rd order winning percentage: 2/3; 5/7


These predictions are pretty good for the multi-game series, but a mixed bag for the one-game playoffs (as expected).


How good were the human predictions? Terrible.


Hansman1982: 0/2; 0/2

Spriggs: 1/3; 1/3

Miggy80: 1/ 2; 2/4

CubChymyst: 1/ 2; 2/4

OCCubFan: 2/3; 2/4

Patrick: 0/1; 2/3


#2 TWC



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Posted 31 October 2013 - 08:51 AM

Don't blame me.  I voted for Kodos.

#3 Spriggs


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Posted 31 October 2013 - 09:04 AM

You didn't count my prediction that I wouldn't watch any games until the cardinals were eliminated. That proved to be correct.

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