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Do we still (did you ever) see Rizzo as a 30 HR guy


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17 replies to this topic

#1 EpsteinHoyer2015

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:24 PM

More curious then anything.

 

He didn't hit a 3 run HR, a grand slam, or a HR to straight away CF all year. I think in his shortened 2012 season he hit more out to CF and LF than he did in all of 2013



#2 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:32 PM

He didn't hit a 3 run HR, a grand slam

I wasn't aware it was his responsibility to get other guys on base.

 

or a HR to straight away CF all year

Are they worth more runs if they are hit to CF versus anywhere else?


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#3 Fishin Phil

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:44 PM

Honestly, I figured 20-25 HR would be an average year for him.  I was not disappointed with his power at all last year.  I would like to see him hit for better average, and I believe he will this year.


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#4 jh03

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:47 PM

I watched a thing on MLBN where Bill James said he was one of the best power hitting first basemen.. and I think (don't kill me if I misremembered, because this was over a year ago) he said that Rizzo could have 40 homer potential.

 

There's not a doubt in my mind Rizzo will be a 30+ homer guy though. Especially in his prime.



#5 OCCubFan

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:55 PM

He hit 23 HR in his age-23 season. Therefore, hitting 30 HR seems likely starting in 2014 or 2015.

 

His OBP of .282 vs LHPs  (and .625 OPS) concerns me. Also, I'd like it better if he went the other way more often so as to get opponents out of the shift. Is his .258 BABIP in 2013 his "natural" BABIP, mostly due to bad luck, or mostly due to the shifts used? I suspect a combination of the latter two factors.



#6 EpsteinHoyer2015

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 05:32 PM

 

He didn't hit a 3 run HR, a grand slam

I wasn't aware it was his responsibility to get other guys on base.

 

or a HR to straight away CF all year

Are they worth more runs if they are hit to CF versus anywhere else?

 

 

You're missing my point

 

 

I am a very pro sabermetric person but at the same time I know when to be careful lol. Those things I pointed out most certainly imply something.



#7 Luke

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 05:44 PM

They imply that the Cubs had a horrible team OBP, and that's about it.

 

Rizzo in his prime should have 30 HR power, and I'd not be shocked if he breaks 40 a time or two. 



#8 EpsteinHoyer2015

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 06:13 PM

The point im trying to make is, he was really pull happy at times this year. And I'm surprised how many times people fail to point it out

 

It was a very real problem. The increase in Flyballs and his rollers to 2B were the reason for his .260 BABIP. It wasnt necessarily "he hit the ball hard right at people" 



#9 Spriggs

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 12:15 AM

I don't think he is pull happy. He hits plenty of balls in the air to LF. But his ground outs do tend to be into the shift. He has massive power and was only in his first full major league season and first full year with a revamped swing. at a young age too. The average distance of his Homers dropped about 10 feet in 2013 but I will be stunned if he doesn't reach 40 fairly soon.

#10 Cubbie Blues

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 10:28 AM

The point im trying to make is, he was really pull happy at times this year. And I'm surprised how many times people fail to point it out

 

It was a very real problem. The increase in Flyballs and his rollers to 2B were the reason for his .260 BABIP. It wasnt necessarily "he hit the ball hard right at people" 

That is not what you said at all. You were talking about how many players were on base. Which, is a byproduct of the teams miserable OBP last year.


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#11 okcubsfan

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 08:21 PM

If I'm not mistaken the Cubs tinkered with his swing to make him more of a power hitter in the offseason. Maybe should have left him alone and let him become the .285, 25-30 HR guy that he probably is than try to turn him into a .250, 40 HR guy.



#12 EpsteinHoyer2015

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 05:30 PM

 

The point im trying to make is, he was really pull happy at times this year. And I'm surprised how many times people fail to point it out

 

It was a very real problem. The increase in Flyballs and his rollers to 2B were the reason for his .260 BABIP. It wasnt necessarily "he hit the ball hard right at people" 

That is not what you said at all. You were talking about how many players were on base. Which, is a byproduct of the teams miserable OBP last year.

 

 

Of course. But we dont just ignore the .309 slugging with RISP



#13 DocPeterWimsey

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 09:47 AM

 

 

The point im trying to make is, he was really pull happy at times this year. And I'm surprised how many times people fail to point it out

 

It was a very real problem. The increase in Flyballs and his rollers to 2B were the reason for his .260 BABIP. It wasnt necessarily "he hit the ball hard right at people" 

That is not what you said at all. You were talking about how many players were on base. Which, is a byproduct of the teams miserable OBP last year.

 

 

Of course. But we dont just ignore the .309 slugging with RISP

 

 

I have no problem ignoring it.  How a guy performs with runners in scoring position one year is no predictor of how he'll do in the future.  I suppose that it is possible that he was cutting down on his swings or something in those situations, but that is easy to fix: tell him to just use the same approach at all times.  


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#14 EpsteinHoyer2015

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 04:23 PM

 

 

 

The point im trying to make is, he was really pull happy at times this year. And I'm surprised how many times people fail to point it out

 

It was a very real problem. The increase in Flyballs and his rollers to 2B were the reason for his .260 BABIP. It wasnt necessarily "he hit the ball hard right at people" 

That is not what you said at all. You were talking about how many players were on base. Which, is a byproduct of the teams miserable OBP last year.

 

 

Of course. But we dont just ignore the .309 slugging with RISP

 

 

I have no problem ignoring it.  How a guy performs with runners in scoring position one year is no predictor of how he'll do in the future.  I suppose that it is possible that he was cutting down on his swings or something in those situations, but that is easy to fix: tell him to just use the same approach at all times.  

 

 

I dont think its just that easy to fix. Nothing at the MLB level is

 

Rizzo had a ridiculously low .291 OPS when behind in the count. I mean, its suppose to be bad, but that is really bad. This has me wondering, perhaps he fell in the habit of just making contact instead of actually trying to drive the ball. I dunno, dont want to make assumptions.

 

But, at the end of the year I myself, felt "regression" wasn't the correct term to apply to Rizzo. Unfortunately, I think some of the comments the FO has made makes me feel like there is something in his play they are somewhat concerned about. I dunno what that is, but I'm pretty sure people in the Cubs FO feel Rizzo regressed

 

Im curious to know why. What did they see that some of us didn't. 



#15 Luke

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 05:34 PM

 

Unfortunately, I think some of the comments the FO has made makes me feel like there is something in his play they are somewhat concerned about.

 

Which comments are you referring to here?






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