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Something Possibly Being Overlooked


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#1 FarmerTanColin

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 06:58 PM

I'm going to post some lines and see if this makes sense to anyone else. FIP/xFIP/SIERA Numbers are from fangraphs and the stats can be explained here.

Quick and dirty. FIP is takes out what the pitcher does not control, xFIP factors in if the pitcher has an average homerun/Fly Ball rate and SIERA is more or less a true ERA.

 

                                 

  • 3.77 /3.45 /3.60
  • 3.86 /3.97 /3.96
  • 3.79 /3.86 /4.04
  • 3.89 /4.50 /4.50

 

These are the four Cubs players from last season that pitched 100+ innings. What I'm having trouble with is why there is so much chatter about moving one starter and zero about moving a different starter.

 

The names in order are as so...

 

Jeff Samardzija

Carlos Villanueva

Edwin Jackson

Travis Wood

 

Now I know baseball isn't played in a vaccuum but Wood had luck to reach his baseball card stats. I'll try not to turn this into a fangraphs breakdown because the point isn't just about performance. He had a 33% ground ball rate so with an average homerun/flyball rate his ERA would've shot well up in the mid 4.00s. Instead of the 3.12ish it ended up at. Wrigley Field isn't the best for fly ball pitchers especially when the wind is blowing out.

 

With 3 years left of control an extension seems risky so why not test the waters on him? I'd rather keep Samardijza and trade Wood unless the percieved market values are so drastic that the return from Wood would be minor.

 

Then again if he were a free agent today (assume he is few years older) What kind of contract would he be looking at? Comparing to today's market...the Garza/Santana tier or more of the Feldman/Kazmir tier?

 

Comparable extension I found was back in 2009 with Paul Maholm. 3 years of service time with total of 4.1 WAR the Pirates bought out his 3 remaining arb years for 14.5 million. Wood has 4.5 WAR past 3 seasons and 6.8 in Career. So if he is extended and it goes more than 3 years it would be a minor precedent for SP of his caliber.

 

In the end I like Travis Wood, but this just seems interesting. If he repeats and has another good season, I  definitely see a possible trade. I'd much like to see some actual baseball too! Come on March.



#2 Nate

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:10 AM

I think you hit it with unless the perceived market values are so drastic that a return for Wood would be minor.  I think Wood is perceived to be topping out his potentially but Shark has the stuff to be much better.  If that's true or not is up for debate but I think the return would be drastically less.

 

Also, I the trade also has to do with Shark not signing a reasonable extension.  The return is not as important than the loss for nothing later.  So, trade him while you can get the most for him if you can't resign him.



#3 FarmerTanColin

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:59 PM

You're right I'm not looking at the lack of extension very much. With the Dbacks recent trade it appears that the Cubs are going to wait on Samardijza for a long time. Decent starters are being had around the league. I also don't see how they're going to get ML ready arms but instead an impact position player and some fliers.

 

Just a thought but trading to the Phillies could work out if the Cubs want to take on some salary. Rumors of Dom Brown being packaged with Papelbon. Add in Jesse Biddle and they are actually looking like a trade partner.



#4 Luke

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 05:04 PM

If the Cubs are taking on Papelbon's contract and giving up Samardzija, I think there will need to be more meat to the deal than Jesse Biddle.  

 

Dom Brown is interesting, and the Cubs could use a left handed bat, but they aren't exactly in need of another outfielder who can't get on base at a regular pace.  Brown has had one good season, and in that he only had an OBP of .324.  He'd make the Cubs better, but I don't think he'd make the Cubs all that  much better.  With Brown they'd still finish near the top of the league SLG and near the bottom in runs scored because no one was on base for all those doubles.



#5 FarmerTanColin

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 02:07 PM

I agree with you. The Biddle inclusion is just a guy I would like to see in a return but not the exact swap, I don't like busting out a bunch of names because its just a shot in the dark anyway.

 

Papelbon I see as a guy that we could take on and gain a couple prospects and maybe Brown and have it mostly cost money. That seems like the prefered way to gain talent these days. 

 

Brown I agree is not a guy that I really like. Bad metrics on defense and a lowish OBP. Only saving grace is he has shown a 10+% walk percentage in the minor leagues and is actually projected to improve on next season. Could also look as a prospect investment where he get him say he hits near 30 bombs again and we then flip him to the diamondbacks for a Skaggs like pitcher.



#6 FarmerTanColin

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 01:57 AM

Playing Watkins and Mike Olt would be a cheap way to get some OBP going for this team. The swing from Barney to one of these guys if they produce would be pretty big.






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