I'm going to post some lines and see if this makes sense to anyone else. FIP/xFIP/SIERA Numbers are from fangraphs and the stats can be explained here.
Quick and dirty. FIP is takes out what the pitcher does not control, xFIP factors in if the pitcher has an average homerun/Fly Ball rate and SIERA is more or less a true ERA.
- 3.77 /3.45 /3.60
- 3.86 /3.97 /3.96
- 3.79 /3.86 /4.04
- 3.89 /4.50 /4.50
These are the four Cubs players from last season that pitched 100+ innings. What I'm having trouble with is why there is so much chatter about moving one starter and zero about moving a different starter.
The names in order are as so...
Now I know baseball isn't played in a vaccuum but Wood had luck to reach his baseball card stats. I'll try not to turn this into a fangraphs breakdown because the point isn't just about performance. He had a 33% ground ball rate so with an average homerun/flyball rate his ERA would've shot well up in the mid 4.00s. Instead of the 3.12ish it ended up at. Wrigley Field isn't the best for fly ball pitchers especially when the wind is blowing out.
With 3 years left of control an extension seems risky so why not test the waters on him? I'd rather keep Samardijza and trade Wood unless the percieved market values are so drastic that the return from Wood would be minor.
Then again if he were a free agent today (assume he is few years older) What kind of contract would he be looking at? Comparing to today's market...the Garza/Santana tier or more of the Feldman/Kazmir tier?
Comparable extension I found was back in 2009 with Paul Maholm. 3 years of service time with total of 4.1 WAR the Pirates bought out his 3 remaining arb years for 14.5 million. Wood has 4.5 WAR past 3 seasons and 6.8 in Career. So if he is extended and it goes more than 3 years it would be a minor precedent for SP of his caliber.
In the end I like Travis Wood, but this just seems interesting. If he repeats and has another good season, I definitely see a possible trade. I'd much like to see some actual baseball too! Come on March.