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Cubs 2014 Projections


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7 replies to this topic

#1 udbrky

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 05:57 PM

I took a shot at making projections. I used Mike Podhorzer's formulas. I adjusted pitching stats for K/BB/HR to per batter rather than per 9 IP to get a little more accurate. It didn't end up being that much different. I then projected these based on projected babip, plate appearances, from www.fangraphs.com data. I compared my projections to ZIPS, Steamer, Oliver, Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shankler's Baseball Forecasting to make sure that my projections were in range. My plan is to use this information to play daily fantasy baseball, but started with the Cubs, of course, and thought I'd share. Apparently my baseball nerddom knows no bounds.

 

 

hitters_zpsf31ec0fd.png

 

I only projected the top 7 starters, no relievers. I'm not doing closers, because lol closers, and you shouldn't play them in Daily fantasy. Win projections takes the pythagorean method . Then, I got the runs scored/allowed from Clay Davenport.

 

 

pitcher_zps6974c6e2.png



#2 Okiecubhawk

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 08:43 PM

I think there is something wrong with your slugging numbers -- Rizzo only slugging .291??



#3 udbrky

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 08:56 PM

Nice catch - a faulty cell input. They still look at little off. I only looked at the main projections - ave/obp/babip/2b/3b/hr, found the errors, will replace the photo.



#4 udbrky

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 09:25 PM

I'm not sure why it is still showing up. I deleted the photo and uploaded this one.

 

hitters_zpsae4047ee.png



#5 udbrky

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 09:27 PM

Also, projected Veras - 36 saves (60 opportunities). I'm hoping he's gone by my birthday (July 25).



#6 Okiecubhawk

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 10:26 PM

I'm not sure why it is still showing up. I deleted the photo and uploaded this one.

 

hitters_zpsae4047ee.png

That would be a fantastic season from Rizzo, Castillo and Schierholtz.  However, if Olt does that it would be a disaster!



#7 udbrky

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Posted 01 February 2014 - 11:33 PM

I really expect Castro and Rizzo to rebound. I maybe drinking the Kool Aid though. :)

 

I wouldn't project Olt higher until seeing if he's 100%.



#8 CubChymyst

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 12:03 PM

CF and RF look better than expected with those projections, LF with Lake and Vitters looks down right dreadful though.






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