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There are actually 130 TOP Prospects, Cubs rank 5th, 12th, 22nd, 37th, 53rd, 76th & 116th


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#1 Ivy Walls

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 06:29 PM

I will update this when Fangraphs releases their list and if Baseball America puts one together than combining the prospect rankings of five organizations is a great way to develop empirical data from subjective analysis. Essentially that is how the now defunct NCAA Football Championship entre's were decided. Therefore I have compiled and then simply mean averaged the rankings assigning each position 100-1 in reverse order. It reveals some players were ranked in one but not the other two ratings, two but not all three or those ranked in all three. Example, Alcantara was ranked in the upper numbers in all three which lowered his overall ranking to 76th because others surrounding him often went unranked in one ratings service.

 

What it tells me is that there are actually 131 ranked players, (wish I could discern the next fifteen where there are 150 players, ideally drilling down to the TOP 5 in each organization if all were equally distributed. I think this tells us something that individual rating services cannot, consensus---meaning that Baez and Bryant are genuine prospects and don't give up on Soler.

 

rank Club Name MLB BP ESPN mean ave position                

1 MIN Buxton 1 1 1 100 OF/CF

2 BOS Bogaerts 2 2 2 99 SS

3 STL Taveras 3 3 5 97 OF/RF

4 HOU Correa 8 5 4 94.33 SS

5 CHC Baez 7 4 9 94 SS

6 CLE Lindor 10 6 6 92.66 SS

7 OAK Russell 12 7 3 92.66 SS

8 ARI Bradley 5 9 9 92.33 RHP

9 MIN Sano 4 14 8 91.33 3B/1B

10 SEA Walker 6 8 16 90 RHP                

11 NYM Syndergaard 11 11 24 86.66 RHP

12 CHC Bryant 9 17 15 86.33 3B/RF

13 COL Gray 14 16 12 86 RHP

14 HOU Appel 17 21 11 83.66 RHP

15 PIT Polanco 13 24 13 83.33 OF/RF

16 HOU Springer 21 20 19 80 OF/RF

16 PIT Taillon 16 19 27 80 RHP                

18 BAL Gausman 31 10 23 78.66 RHP

19 BAL Bundy 20 15 31 78 RHP

20 KC Zimmer* 25 34 10 77 RHP                

21 CIN Stephenson 19 22 29 76.66 RHP

22 CHC Almora 18 25 28 76.33 OF/CF

23 SD Hedges 24 18 33 75 C

24 WAS Giolito 44 13 21 74 RHP

25 TOR Sanchez 23 31 30 72 RHP

25 DET Castellanos 15 37 32 72 3B

25 COL Butler 41 26 17 72 RHP

28 KC Mondesi 38 29 22 70.33 SS                

29 MIA Heaney 29 30 34 69 LHP

30 PIT Glasnow 27 42 20 68.33 RHP                

31 LAD Seager 34 44 18 68 SS/3B

32 KC Ventura 35 12 50 67.66 RHP

32 BOS Bradley 33 23 51 67.66 OF/CF

34 NYM D'arnaud 22 48 36 65.33 C

35 LAD Urias 64 35 14 62.33 LHP

36 CLE Frazier 48 36 45 60.33 OF/CF

37 CHC Soler 49 45 26 60 OF/RF                

38 MIN Meyer 28 32 62 59.33 RHP

39 TEX Alfaro 39 41 44 58.66 C

40 HOU Foltynewicz 54 43 70 57.66 RHP                

41 LAD Pederson 36 50 41 54.33 OF/LF

42 CIN Hamilton 37 49 52 54 OF/CF

43 SF Crick 32 38 69 53.66 RHP

44 ATL Sims 60 40 40 53.33 RHP

45 PHL Franco 26 52 63 53 3B

45 BOS Owens 30 69 42 53 LHP

47 SD Wisler 78 47 39 52.66 RHP

48 SD Fried 43 55 48 51.33 LHP                

49 BOS Cecchini 57 51 53 46.33 3B

50 TEX Odor 59 39 64 46 2B                

51 ARI Shipley 79 62 25 44.66 RHP

52 PIT Meadows 45 89 35 43.66 OF/CF

53 CHC Edwards 42 81 67 43.33 RHP

53 MIN Stewart 40 54 76 43.33 RHP

55 BAL Rodriquez 68 61 43 42.66 LHP

56 ARI Owings* 77 28 72 41 SS

57 MIA Moran 51 74 55 40 3B

57 BOS Swihert 61 73 56 40 C

59 BOS Betts 62   61 40.66 2B                

60 STL Wong 58 33 91 39.33 2B

60 TOR Stroman 55 27 58 38.33 RHP

60 HOU Singleton 50 57 78 38.33 1B                

63 WAS Cole 69 53 65 37.66 RHP

64 MINN Rosario   60 49 36.33 2B

65 CWS Johnson 70 67 59 34.66 RHP

66 BAL Harvey   59 38 34.33 RHP

67 NYY Sanchez 47 85 68 33.33 C                

68 Minn Pinto 56 56   29.33 C

68 LAD Lee 63 84 75 29.33 RHP

70 NYY Almonte   46 81 28.33 OF                

71 COL Dahl 71 100 47 27.66 OF/CF

72 PHI Biddle 53 94 77 25.33 LHP

72 STL Piscosty 98 69 57 25.33 OF/RF                

74 PITT MCGuire   59   19.66 C

74 PIT Hansen 67   74 19.66 SS

76 CHC Alcantara 89 83 71 19 2B

77 NYM Montero 85   60 18.33 RHP

78 HOU DeShields 66   80 18 OF/CF

79 HOU McCullers 52     17.33 RHP

79 TEX Sardinas 76 72   17.33 SS

79 TB Ordorizzi 56 92   17.33 RHP

79 PIT Bell 74 77 97 17.33 OF/RF                

83 MIA Marisnick 65   84 17 OF/CF

84 TEX Choice 72 79   16.33 OF/LF

84 SD Kelly 87 64   16.33 RHP

86 SEA Peterson 88 65   15.66 3B

86 COL Herrera 99 54   15.66 SS

88 BOS Webster 46     15.33 RHP

88 CLE Crawford     46 15.33 SS

90 KC Manaea 78 78   14.66 LHP                

91 PITT Kingham   80 73 14.33 RHP

92 TB Guerrerri 94   66 13.33 RHP

93 CWS Davidson 80 93 88 13 3B

94 NYM Smith     37 12.33 1B

94 CIN Ervin   63   12.33 OF

94 TB Hak-Ju Lee 84   79 12.33 SS

97 MIN Berrios 90 75   11.66 RHP

98 SEA Paxton   68   10.66 LHP

98 BAL Schoop   82 86 10.66 2B

100 ATL Bettencourt 82 87   10.33 C

100 WAS Goodwin   86 83 10.33 OF                

102 TEX Gonzalez   70   10 RHP                

103 NYM Flores   71   9.66 OF

104 TEX Williams* 75 88 87 9 OF/CF

104 CLE Bauer 73     9 RHP

106 MIA Nicolino 81   93 8.66 LHP

107 BOS Barnes 86   89 8.33 RHP

108 TOR Tirado   76   8 RHP

109 HOU Velasquez     82 6 RHP

110 MIL Johnson 83     5.66 RHP                

111 NYY Austin     85 5 OF

112 TEX Gallo* 92 95   4.33 3B

113 KC Bonifacio 91 99   3.33 OF/LF

113 ATL Bethancourt     90 3.33 C

113 TB Romero   90   3.33 LHP

116 CHC Johnson 100 91   3 RHP

117 NYM Nimmo     92 2.66 OF

118 TOR Osuna 93     2.33 RHP

119 SD Renfroe     94 2 OF

120 SF Escobar 95     1.66 LHP

120 TB Cuiffo     95 1.66 C                

122 BOS Ball* 96     1.33 LHP

122 KC Dozier   96   1.33 SS

122 LAD Anderson     96 1.33 RHP

122 STL Reyes 98 98   1.33 RHP

126 DET Ray 97     1 LHP

126 COL Tapia   97   1 OF                

128 CWS Anderson     98 0.66 SS

129 ATL Peraza     99 0.33 SS

130 STL Kaminsky     100 0.1 LHP

130 MINN Thorpe     100 0.1 LHP


"What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs."~Harry Carey

#2 CubChymyst

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 09:45 AM

Thanks for combining the lists. Always interesting to see what the collective though of all prospect rankers are. 



#3 Oswego Chris

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 10:29 AM

this is really cool, and a great way to do this....if you include Fangraphs and BA that would be 5 solid sources...



#4 Ivy Walls

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 02:18 PM

Actually because of a consecutive closed school weather day out here at the base of Pikes Peak, still below zero at Noon, this is cold for these parts, I am extending this data analysis to include movement from 2013 rankings as a variable to add to the mean average. Meaning with each ranking service add or subject a quotient to the overall data set and further extend an overall ranking. 

 

This tells me players who are ascending as well as highly ranked providing an empirical statement that this player has a higher degree of sticking or performing in the Show. It also will provide a basis to determine which players might come available in a trade. Olt is an example who lost rankings last year because of injury and performance. He was an add on in a trade where Cubs might have gotten a deal to use.

 

Finally when Fangraphs and BA are added along with another add on value for valued positions or left handed status a complete picture could be statistically ascertained as to the value of a prospect.

 

Overtime an algorithm might be developed to statistically provide a ratio of success % and value for trades.

 

Also this is beginning to capture more prospects that are probably in the 101-150+ as they might have fallen because of injury (Olt and Vizcaino for example) but were previously highly regarded.

 

I am also going to include position ranking and organizational ranking as a final touch.

 

The relevance is to then come up with one reduced number like WAR.


"What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs."~Harry Carey

#5 Ivy Walls

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 05:15 PM

As i break from the data input, three things jumps out more than anything, Shortstop has five difference maker players, where to me the obvious is that Castro will not be the Cubs future SS, it was not the original plan but now as things evolve this is certain. The five power prospects at that position are conflated between 2-4-5-6-7 in this composite and are ranked within that scope 1 thru 5. What it tells me is that a team that needs a SS to man the position for the next 5 years will come calling to the Cubs.

 

At the bottom of the SS level in MLB are the NYY, STL, MIA, SEA, with SF, DET and ARI not far behind. I pick Seattle as my target seeking to them to take  Castro, for two of their pitchers in exchange with some of our lower tier. Walker already diminished a bit in value from last year. Yankees could also be desperate but all they got is a catcher, now Miami has a pair of LHP which could be interesting. Of course Arizona could also be a partner with their stud RHP where an exchange with Samardz for their two studs of RHP.

 

But my coup d etat is STL, and the fleece of Brock, Trade Castro and prospects for Taveras and one of their pitchers Reyes or Kaminisky  and Taveras would solve the left handed bat in the OF. Cubs could then move Schierholtz later in the year and still have an OF ready for Soler and Almora. Now that would be a trade.


"What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs."~Harry Carey

#6 Luke

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 06:51 PM

I'm not sure you'll get a top list from Baseball America, but several of their writers have a Top 50 in the Handbook.  Their list for the Cubs is below.

 

BA Top 31

 

  1. Baez
  2. Bryant
  3. Edwards
  4. Almora
  5. Soler
  6. Johnson
  7. Alcantara
  8. Candelario
  9. Vogelbach
  10. Vizcaino
  11. Hendricks
  12. Blackburn
  13. Villanueva
  14. Olt
  15. Black
  16. Jimenez
  17. Hannemann
  18. Maples
  19. Skulina
  20. Zastryzny
  21. Pineyro
  22. Fujikawa
  23. Torres
  24. Beeler
  25. Rivero
  26. Szczur
  27. Cates
  28. Wells
  29. Silva
  30. Lockhart
  31. Geiger


#7 hansman1982

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 07:51 PM

WHOA, Edwards at 3?

 

If he becomes a TOR, that will be a steal of a trade, and then.



#8 Ivy Walls

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 08:29 PM

thanks!


"What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs."~Harry Carey

#9 fullcounttommy

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 10:16 AM

I've done the same thing, results are at home though so will cross check when I get home.  I know Baseball America usually releases a list and I was planning on using Sickels list as well.






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