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PROSPECT CAUTION...in regards to trading Matt Garza, and Anthony Rizzo's futute Hall of Fame plaque


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#1 Oswego Chris

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 07:21 PM

I have been a bit of a prospect geek for awhile. I love looking at future Cub propsects(unfortunately they usually suck). With all of the Garza trade talk, and the clammoring for the Cubs to do anything to get Anthony Rizzo, I think we need to realize what gambles ALL prospects are. Most of them turn out to be fool's gold.

I got out my last four editions of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook( I told you I was a geek)...and I went back to Baseball America's Top Ten prospects for 2008. (2009-11...may be to early to judge, heck 2008 may be too). Here were the top ten in 2008:

10. Homer Bailey (nearing a bust)
9. Travis Snider (work in progress, still a prospect)
8. Cameron Maybin (2nd org, now a regular)
7. Colby Rasmus (2nd org, shown flashes)
6. Mike Moustakas (work in progress, still prospect)
5. CLAYTON KERSHAW (F#ING KOUFAX JR!)
4. EVAN LONGORIA (ABSOLUTE STUD)
3. Joba Chamberlain( flashes, now injured)
2. Clay Bucholz (1 great year,inconsistent & inj.)
1. JAY BRUCE ( PRETTY, PRETTY...GOOD)

Here is my question: With the benefit of hindsight(which you obvioulsy don't have when dealing for prospects), if the Cubs had Garza in 2008 with the same current situation, how many of these guys would you trade him for? I see 3 pretty obvious ones(that's why they are in bold!)...but after that...ehhh?...maybe the guys who are still young like Moustakas, other than that?

Granted this is just one year, but keep in mind this was the top ten for ALL of baseball in 2008, not just one organization...

I did NOT write this up because I am against them trading Garza, or I don't think Rizzo might pan out.
My wish is that if they do trade Garza...it is for multiple prospects to lessen the risk.

Now feel free to tear this piece to shreds!

#2 Kansas Cubs Fan

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 07:49 PM

Do you have any years before 2008? I think that would give people a little better idea.

Oh by the way, good stuff. Thanks!

#3 Oswego Chris

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 08:24 PM

Here is the 2007 list
1. Dice K Bos
2. Alex Gordon KC
3. Delmon Young TB
4. Phillip Hughes NY
5. Homer Bailey Cin
6. Camerin Maybin Det
7. Evan Longaria TB
8. Brandon Wood ANA
9. Justin Upton ARI
10. Andrew Miller Det

this one might be worse than 2008....to be fair Lincecum was #11...

#4 Coach Harris

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 08:27 PM


Here is a look at Baseball Prospectus 2006 list of top prospects:




1. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay - (pretty good player)
2. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida - (BUST)
3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington - (very good player)
4. Francisco Liriano, LHP, Minnesota - (most dominant pitcher in the league in 2006 - then injuries)
5. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles of Anaheim (pretty good player now knocking on very good's door)


6. Brandon Wood, SS, Los Angeles of Anaheim (BUST)
7. Andy Marte, 3B, Cleveland - (BUST)
8. Chris Young, OF, Arizona - (very good power/speed)
9. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee (MEGA STUD)
10. Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City (bust finally turned...pretty good)


Looks like 2006 was a better for depth than 2008. That being said, I would still rather have Garza than most of these guys with exception of Prince and maybe Zimmerman. However, only 3 were busts and the other 7 have actually been pretty good or better. Therefore, I think you would probably be happy on the return of these guys if you had gotten them in a trade.


If you look even closer and expand the list to 15...




11. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston (MEGA STUD)
12. Matt Cain, RHP, San Francisco (STUD)
13. Lastings Milledge, OF, New York (see above-original post)
14. Joel Guzman, SS, Los Angeles (BUST)
15. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit (MEGA STUD)


WOW...two of these guys are the BEST (RHSP and 2B) at their position and Cain is awfully damn good. By the way, Cain in addition to Hamels and Lincecum are free agents next year assuming they don't sign extensions. I would certainly take one of these guys on the Cubs.


I have not looked back in other years but I have to imagine that 2006 is the exception and not the rule in regards to how these top prospects shake out. It does give you hope though...considering that the Cubs have been acquiring and will continue to acquire more prospects.






#5 Coach Harris

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 08:29 PM

Not sure why my computer decided to use size 4 font there.

Ironically Ian Stewart was #16 on the 2006 list.

#6 Oswego Chris

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 08:44 PM

I will see your 2006 Coach Harris....and raise you a 2005

1. Joe Mauer...quit getting hurt
2. King Felix....deserves better than the title of King!
3. Delmon Young...every year?
4. Ian Stewart...woo hoo!
5. Joel Guzman...Dodger SS...neva seen um since
6. Casey Kotchman...hmmmmm
7. Scott Kazmir......good for a couple of years
8. Ricke Weeks...ok sure
9. Andy Marte...nope!
10. Hanley Ramirez....hopefully gets back on HOF track

3 studs, a couple usable parts and a couple of busts!

#7 Coach Harris

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 08:57 PM

2004:

1. Joe Mauer
2. Jeremy Reed
3. Andy Marte
4. Prince Fielder
5. David Wright
6. Edwin Jackson
7. Zack Greinke
8. B.J. Upton
9. Rickie Weeks
10. Kazuo Matsui

11. Justin Morneau

2004 is not bad. Other than Marte, Reed (ha ha - Sox), and Matsui...they are all pretty good or better.

By the way, not one Cub in the top 50 but Angel Guzman and Brendan Harris did receive Honorable Mention.

#8 Coach Harris

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 09:03 PM

2002 and 2003 were pretty bad. not many guys panned out.

Highlights:

#7 in 2003 ... Hee Seop Choi

#8 in 2002 ... Juan Cruz

#9 Oswego Chris

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 09:11 PM

I always liked Juan Cruz...even if he did celebrate 3 birthdays in one spring training...

#10 Kansas Cubs Fan

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 09:18 PM

Once again good stuff there.
Thanks Oswego Chris and Coach Harris!

#11 HoustonTransplant

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 09:39 PM

Ha, I like the message boards. I learn things about baseball. Yay, me. And yay, all of you, too for posting this stuff. Interesting to see how things do or don't work out the way everyone expects them.

That being said, I'd still like to see a nice chunk of prospects headed our way for Garza.
making music and more since 1985

#12 MightyBear

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Posted 29 December 2011 - 10:51 PM

You know it goes back to what Theo said. Half the time your right and half the time your wrong. You shoot for 55%. If the Cubs trade Garza and get back a Verlander or Lincecum in a couple of years, they did great and theyre geniuses. If they get back Homer Bailey or Hee Seep Choi, they're idiots.

#13 Brett

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Posted 30 December 2011 - 08:10 AM

This is an awesome thread.

#14 Ashley

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Posted 30 December 2011 - 01:21 PM

Nice jobs guys! Really enjoyed this! Just goes to show you that you never know what you are getting when it comes to prospects!




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