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13 WAR


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#1 Edwin

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 08:54 AM

Currently, by using Fangraphs Depth charts (http://www.fangraphs...n=ALL&teamid=17), it pegs the Cubs at a projected WAR of 27.6.  The top teams in the league are around 41 WAR.  So to be a top team, projection wise, the Cubs need to find a way to add about 13 WAR to their MLB to become an actual legitimate contender, instead of just a "surprise team" candidate.

 

My question for the community, how do the Cubs make up that 13 WAR gap, and how soon can that gap be made up? 



#2 Edwin

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 10:09 AM

Assuming that Baez and Bryant are each called up and turn into 4 WAR players, that's probably a net gain of 6 WAR.  So only 7 to go.



#3 CubChymyst

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 10:23 AM

I think Castro could provide at least 1 WAR more than projected with having better defense. So that is 6 left. Alcantara replacing Barney could be an additional 1 as well, assuming Alcantara can be a 2 WAR player. I think the bullpen could provide more war then the 1.6 project as well. Last year 18 teams got more than 3 war from the bullpen so add an additional 1.5 for the bull pen and that leaves 3.5 WAR left to improve.



#4 Edwin

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 10:26 AM

I was thinking some combo of Baez/Bryant replaces Barney/3B.  They could move Alcanatara to the OF, I guess.



#5 CubChymyst

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 12:14 PM

I think Bryant is destined for the outfield. I think Baez or one of the other prospects end up at 3rd because they will provide better defense then Bryant.



#6 scorecardpaul

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 02:40 PM

sorry to be that guy but....

Lets say we trade Jeff Samardzija and his 3.4 points.  Therefore we subtract 3.4 from 27.6 and we get the second draft pick, we only need to suck .6 more to get the number one pick in the draft.   We should be talking about how we can loose that .6war not how we are going to get into the top 10.   We at least have a chance to get the first pick?



#7 fromthemitten

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 02:48 PM

Trade for Mike Trout ;)



#8 Luke

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Posted 25 February 2014 - 09:43 PM

Starting pitching and outfield are the two most obvious spots.  Signing a guy like Masterson takes some off that, and developing someone from the pool of Johnson, Edwards, Black, Pinero, and Zastryzny (plus a few more) could trim a little more off a year or so later.

 

Adding Baez at second or third should be good for 2 or 3 wins at current projections, and if Bryant matches that (he should be close) then that's another 2 or 3 wins net gain in right field or at third.  

 

Conservatively, that's 8.  Further development of Rizzo, Castro, and Castillo could tack on two more.  There is room for a couple more wins in the bullpen.  That's 12.  

 

And that's just one scenario.  I think making up 13 wins by next season is not out of the question at all.



#9 FFP

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 10:46 AM

For most of his thirties Uehara pitched well enough in Baltimore and Texas to be worth about 1 WAR every year. Then he shows up in Boston at age 38 and suddenly spins 3.6 WAR; and in the highest leverage games. He just became spooky good. Weird stuff happens in this game every year. I fully expect some individual(s) (and most on this club are a lot more unpredictable than 38 year olds) to pleasantly surprise us, if not their coaches and managers.



#10 TWC

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Posted 26 February 2014 - 10:08 PM

Trade for Mike Trout ;)

 

Or steal him.



#11 Edwin

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Posted 27 February 2014 - 08:18 AM

Kidnapping other team's players is the new inefficiency.



#12 Edwin

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Posted 27 February 2014 - 08:19 AM

If everything goes right, I think the Cubs could be competative by as soon as 2016.  But it depends on a lot of stuff breaking right.



#13 Luke

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Posted 28 February 2014 - 07:57 PM

If everything goes right, I think the Cubs could be competative by as soon as 2016.  

 

I don't see any reason to give up on 2015.

 

The bullpen should be in good shape, and there are plenty more promising relievers coming out of the system as reinforcements.

 

The infield is a weakness right now, but the Cubs graduate no fewer than five infielder who project as potential major league regulars this season or next (Baez, Bryant, Villanueva, Olt, Alcantara).  If just two of them stick and Rizzo and Castro bounce back, the infield doesn't look bad at all.  I can make a case that the Cubs could have the best infield in the NL by September of this season.

 

Catcher looks good.  Depth is an issue, but I think Castillo/Kotaras could backstop for a winning team.

 

Outfield is a bigger problem.  If some of the infielders spill into the outfield, that would help.  If Vitters can claim left field, that would really help.  Other than that, until Almora/Soler arrive (if they do) the Cubs are looking at an assortment of wild cards out there.  I'd be happy to see a Triple A or young major league outfielder show up in a trade this season.

 

Starting pitching - this one is more iffy.  I suspect the Cubs can fill out the back half of a rotation fairly well, but they'll need an arm or two in the front to compete by 2015.  The bullpen could be good enough, though, that they can get by with a more average rotation and still make a run at the wild card.  I'll admit this is the trickiest part of the puzzle.  Signing Masteron, Scherzer, and Shields would turn it around in a hurry, but landing all three is unlikely.  Landing any of them, as with any free agent, isn't a guarantee.  

 

I know I'm just going to be dismissed as an unobjective, irrational, kool-aid drinking front office apologist by the majority of the fan base for saying it,but I still see no reason to write off 2015.  They may not win the division, but I expect them to at worst be fighting for a wild card. 



#14 CUBSBLEACHERBUM

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Posted 23 March 2014 - 03:44 PM

Just out of curiosity, what is "Clark's" win above replacement???






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