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WHY I WOULDN'T TRADE GARZA FOR PROSPECTS....PART 17


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#1 Oswego Chris

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 11:21 AM

JUSTIN VERLANDER, CC SABATHIA, TIM LINCECUM, MATT CAIN, CLAYTON KERSHAW, JARED WEAVER, AND ROY HALLADAY. If the Cubs had any of these guys, would you trade them? Obviously, the state of the team, the age of the player, etc...may alter your thinking. But we can agree on one thing...these are some pretty good flippin' pitchers!

I was researching the most dominant pitchers in the game, (nothing attracts the young hotties out there more than a 43 year old guy doing Sabremetrics!) looking for a way to "project" the traits that would indicate who the next great pitchers might be. So what do these guys have in common?

1. All seven are first round draft picks.

2. Five of the seven averaged 93-94 MPH on fastballs last year(Halladay and Weaver averaged between 90-91)...all of them had at least a 10-12 MPH difference between their fastballs and one of their off-speed pitches.

3. They all had DOMINANT numbers in the minors at very young ages.

AGE KS/ 9 HITS/ 9 ERA
VERLDR 22 10.3 6.1 1.29
LINCEM 21 16.5 4.0 1.71
CC SAB 19 9.8 7.6 3.57
CAIN 19 9.1 7.6 2.67
KERSHW 19 12.0 6.6 2.85
WEAVER 22 10.9 7.2 2.10
HALLADY 19 9.3 7.6 2.73
PLAYER X 22 10.2 5.8 1.99
PLAYER Y 19 7.6 8.0 3.44

As you have probably deduced, "Player X" is Matt Garza. Garza was also a first round pick, and averaged 93.8 on his fastball, 86 on his slider, and 76 on his curveball. Am I saying Garza is the equal of these pitchers? No. I would however, argue that he is very comparable. I would also argue that if Garza pitched in Detroit, or LA, or SF, his major league career may even be more similar.

Player Y is Jacob Turner. Who also was a first round pick, has similar velocity numbers(slower fastball) but has not quite shown the dominance of any of the other 8.

I am not presenting this as an air-tight case to not trade Garza. I cherry-picked Cy Young type pitchers, Turner could project as a solid number 2 or 3, many, many other variables could be considered. This was just done from one guy looking at pitchers on FanGraphs for an hour.

Just a caution. Some great hair band sang "You don't know what you've got until it's gone"....If we get an absolute haul for him, fine...caution, is all I ask for.

#2 Ralph

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 12:16 PM

You're right... gotta get a haul. I too like Garza and see him as a guy they could potentially build around. I've said it before but the Cubs NEED to get back for him what they paid, and that is kinda steep. Archer will probably end up in the majors (perhaps only back end rotation), Guyer will eventually be back up to stay (maybe 4th outfielder), Hak Ju Lee will end up a major-leaguer (if for no other reason, his glove), Chirinos could still be a back-up MLB catcher, and Sam Fuld is Sam Fuld. So, yes, a HAUL please!

#3 Oswego Chris

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 12:27 PM

Love the picture Ralph

#4 Katie

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 12:48 PM

Consider this young hottie attracted!

Great perspective Chris. I agree, it better be a haul! Does anyone else kinda miss Sam Fuld?
Peg: Oh Al! Did you miss me?
Al: With every bullet, so far.

#5 TWC

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 01:27 PM

Does anyone else kinda miss Sam Fuld?

No.

HTH.

#6 Fishin Phil

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 01:37 PM

Put a cape on Tony Campana, it's almost the same thing.
Please don't feed the psychos.

#7 TWC

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 01:46 PM

A handkerchief tied around his neck would be a cape on Tony Campana.

#8 Crockett

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 02:00 PM

Geeze. More like cherry-picked a bunch of pointless stats.

Garza needs to be dealt NOW when his value is HIGHEST. What if he goes all Tommy John on the Cubs in May? Utoh.

#9 Oswego Chris

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 02:32 PM

I encourage a good debate!...

1. I wouldn't call these stats "pointless", considering they directly relate to a pitchers success
2. his value would be higher at the trade deadline, not now..pretty hard to quantify when his value is "highest"
3. ahhhh...might as well trade all of the pitchers then since any of them could go "all Tommy John"

#10 Hawkeye

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 02:47 PM

Consider this young hottie attracted!

Great perspective Chris. I agree, it better be a haul! Does anyone else kinda miss Sam Fuld?


I don't know? Between Sam's older Uncle Reed and his younger cousin Tony, I kind of feel like we have the gutsy, try really hard, outfielder position covered.

#11 Crockett

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 03:45 PM

I encourage a good debate!...

1. I wouldn't call these stats "pointless", considering they directly relate to a pitchers success
2. his value would be higher at the trade deadline, not now..pretty hard to quantify when his value is "highest"
3. ahhhh...might as well trade all of the pitchers then since any of them could go "all Tommy John"


1) They are pointless. He actually doesn't even list statistics outside of random minor league numbers. Velocities and pitch differentials are meaningless if a pitcher cannot properly command them. And even mentioning draft position? Ugh.
2) I disagree his value would be higher. Any team acquiring Garza would want to utilize the FULL two years of team control, not 1.5 seasons of it. His value is highest at any point before the start of the season.
3) What if Garza struggles the first month or two? Bye bye Turner, etc.

Smart move is to deal him now, provided you get a package somewhere on par with Gio's. Yes, Gio has more years of control, but the easy statistical argument is that Garza is simply much better (within the realm of top 50 starters).

#12 Oswego Chris

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 04:37 PM

If K's per 9,hits per 9, and ERA at age 22 or less is a "random" indicatator of future success, then please show me some stats that will project that Jacob Turner will one day be an elite pitcher.

Right now your market for Garza includes the Tigers......and the Tigers.. maybe the Rangers...oh, and the Tigers....the Yankees are not willing to move their top guys right now...

if you wait until the Trade Deadline your market will include EVERY contending team because they will all want a top end starter....

your argument to trade him now because "he could struggle" or "could go Tommy John" is not a valid rationale to trade him(unless you know something about his medical report)...by this rationale you better trade Castro before he blows out his knee, or any player because they all could struggle in the first month...

#13 Tommy

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 09:29 PM

Garza needs to be dealt NOW when his value is HIGHEST. What if he goes all Tommy John on the Cubs in May? Utoh.


I think we all agree that if we can get the same type of package deal for Garza that we gave up for him, then we have to take it. However, trading a player on the basis that he MAY need Tommy John surgery in the future (even when this player has shown no propensity toward injury) is one of the worst arguments you could possibly use. If you are going to use that argument, then why not assume that Jacob Turner could require Tommy John surgery right after we trade for him. What's the difference?

I would like to get Jacob Turner as part of a package deal, but to see some of the suggestions that we trade Garza straight up for him is ludicrous (did I just say LUDIKISS!) There is no guarantee that this kid pans out in the majors, certainly no guarantee that he becomes a pitcher of Garza's quality. Garza is proven in the league, will give you innings, a good K/BB ratio, and a quality ERA.

I'm not saying we don't trade him, but I do agree with Chris - if we trade him, we better get a haul for him!
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#14 Crockett

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 10:53 PM


Garza needs to be dealt NOW when his value is HIGHEST. What if he goes all Tommy John on the Cubs in May? Utoh.


I think we all agree that if we can get the same type of package deal for Garza that we gave up for him, then we have to take it. However, trading a player on the basis that he MAY need Tommy John surgery in the future (even when this player has shown no propensity toward injury) is one of the worst arguments you could possibly use. If you are going to use that argument, then why not assume that Jacob Turner could require Tommy John surgery right after we trade for him. What's the difference?

I would like to get Jacob Turner as part of a package deal, but to see some of the suggestions that we trade Garza straight up for him is ludicrous (did I just say LUDIKISS!) There is no guarantee that this kid pans out in the majors, certainly no guarantee that he becomes a pitcher of Garza's quality. Garza is proven in the league, will give you innings, a good K/BB ratio, and a quality ERA.

I'm not saying we don't trade him, but I do agree with Chris - if we trade him, we better get a haul for him!


I wasn't arguing that. Sheesh. I'm saying once the season starts and he's in a Cub uniform, anything...good or bad...could happen. And if he goes all TJ or blows out a shoulder, etc (all possible with any pitcher) then there will be no return at all.




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