20 replies to this topic

[Oswego Chris]

This assumes the Cubs keep Garza.

Garza- a solid 2, who I would argue could have a break-out season and be a bona-fide ace...like 18-6 or something like that..

Dempster- I would call him a 4, with an upside of 3. Either way, he will eat valuable innings.

Wood & Volstad- These fellas are the "hope"...they could struggle so badly to be sent down, but I see each of them with ceilings between a 2 and a 3. If just one of them busts out..it changes things immensely.

Malholm- what you see is what you get...not a ton of upside, but an innings eater capable of winning 10-12 games.

Wells- Depth, has shown flashes....

unfortunately they have no pitching prospects ready to break-out...if Whitenack had not got hurt last year then we would have one...

Sonnanstine, Lopez...fifth starter depth...


Look, it's not the '71 Orioles(4 20-game winners)....but I think there is the possibility of conetntion

thoughts???

[Tommy]

That's a good way of looking at things, Chris. I like your optimism. And I would even say that Maholm has more potential than that. I know he looked awfully good against the Cubbies last year, and maybe Wrigley is just the right environment for him.

[Sam]

I think that our staff is one bounce back/breakout year away from being pretty good.

1. Garza is getting better every year, last season he would have had more wins if our bullpen had done a better job of finishing out his games. They cost him no less than 5 wins.

2. Dempster had an off year last year, but he is still a solid pitcher and it is well within the realm of possibility that he could have a bounce back season.

3. Wells, he was good a few seasons ago and then he got hurt. If he can stay healthy this season I think he could be a solid mid-back end of the rotation pitcher.

4. Maholm is a solid lefty innings eater, and I think we can count on him to have 10 wins (probably 9 to 10 losses too)

5. Volstad/Wood, both of them have a high upside, barring some sort of injury I think one (or both) of them will have a solid year.

I wouldn't go as far to say the Cubs have a great pitching staff, but it is better than our staff was last year (for whatever thats worth). That being said there is definitely potential there for this staff to be successful. Especially in a weakened NL Central.

[Fishin Phil]

One thing is for sure: I feel a whole lot better about starters #5, 6, and 7 now than I did after the first week of last season.

[Cubbie Blues]

I saw an interview with Dempster over weekend. He said that he was feeling pretty sorry for himself the way he started the season last year (wouldn't most of us). Then the game after he got yanked after 2 innings he walked the first two batters. Soto came out and talked to him and Dempster thought about his girl and what she had overcome. He then went on and had a decent year after that.

Don't really know where I was going with that I just thought the whole interview was well...swell.

[Brett]

The pitching, as it stands, is capable of surprising to the upside, and being a top 5 staff in the NL. I truly believe that. But it will require Wood and Volstad (or Wells) pitching surprisingly well, Maholm pitching as well as he did last year (when his peripherals suggest he was lucky), and Dempster "coming back."

The offense, on the other hand...

[Dave H]

A lot of pitchers looking for bounce back years.

I would expect Dempster's year to bounce back. His tough start was that his head wasn't at wrigley. Kinda like D Lee's. How can you have a great year when you are worried about a child.

Maholm is hopefully a new team - new outlook situation.

Garza is gonna be good this year. Tough pitcher. Reminds me of Maddux mentally but has a fast ball.

Wells........ is well...........

The biggest wild card is Bosio. Can he get the young guns in line and help Marmol.

[MichiganGoat]

I'm avoiding getting excited about the potential upside/bounce back of players this time last year I was all "IF THIS AND IF THAT" this year I'm prepared for a disappointing season and if they surprise great, but outside of Garza we have a staff of 4-5 pitchers.

[FFP]

Theo has always said eight is the right number of starting pitchers to have; Odds are some guys have to be shut down during the season. Jed says so, too. Even with this many arms you can still get burned.

But, as long as I'm in the candy-and-nuts file, and I'm just asking; IF the Cubs were to add a number one starter like Oswalt wouldn't this produce a more powerful rotation all the way down the line? match-up by match-up?

I ask because it seems a forgone conclusion that the Cubs are writing off 2012. I don't see that so purely, yet. I know its money. But wouldn't it be money powerfully spent because it improves everybody and improves the chance of winning every game, not just the one the "new ace" is pitching.

And I love that Chris starts with the assumption "the Cubs keep Garza." Sounds good to me.

[TWC]

...IF the Cubs were to add a number one starter like Oswalt wouldn't this produce a more powerful rotation all the way down the line? match-up by match-up?

Roy Oswalt is a former number 1 starter. It remains to be seen if he's still a #1.

[FFP]

True, TWC. I am not trying to promote a specific acquisition of Oswalt. I chose the name because he is available and it helps me flesh out the idea. It could be anyone who IS a legitimate number one and is/becomes available, and that pitcher could be acquired any time. (someone's mid-season fire sale, for example)

I just have not seen numbers run on pitchers (as is done on batters for where they bat in the order) as to where they pitch in a rotation; or my point; the effectiveness of an entire rotation being improved by one guy at the top. Thanks for helping me clarify.

I'll look for data.

It'll be Win/Loss data, I'm guessing, because the bats each pitcher sees are mostly the same game to game.

Edited by FromFenwayPahk, 23 January 2012 - 01:38 PM.

[TWC]

Yeah, I get your drift -- Oswalt would help the rotation tremendously, I'd bet -- I just don't see paying $16m per year (+?) for a 34-year-old guy (who had some back issues) when I think the Cubs' competitive window isn't going to begin until 2013 (yes, I understand that there are disagreements on this).

[Dave H]

True, TWC. I am not trying to promote a specific acquisition of Oswalt. I chose the name because he is available and it helps me flesh out the idea. It could be anyone who IS a legitimate number one and is/becomes available, and that pitcher could be acquired any time. (someone's mid-season fire sale, for example)

It would make this year very interesting if one more "solid" starter was added to this staff. Could be like a version of the Giants. All we have to do is make wild card on a hot streak and anything can happen. I know I know, I'm smoking the same thing diehard is but hey funnier things have happened.

[TWC]

True, TWC. I am not trying to promote a specific acquisition of Oswalt. I chose the name because he is available and it helps me flesh out the idea. It could be anyone who IS a legitimate number one and is/becomes available, and that pitcher could be acquired any time. (someone's mid-season fire sale, for example)

It would make this year very interesting if one more "solid" starter was added to this staff. Could be like a version of the Giants. All we have to do is make wild card on a hot streak and anything can happen. I know I know, I'm smoking the same thing diehard is but hey funnier things have happened.

2010 Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez/Bumgarner = 2012 Garza/Oswalt/Dempster/uh... Travis Wood? Volstad? Unlikely.

I understand that hope springs eternal. We're Cubs fans, after all. But we just don't have that kind of rotation.

[Oswego Chris]

How about if we added Edwin jackson?(not gonna happen)...but then I think you would be talking about a possible top 3 rotation in the NL....

there has to be a reason that guy keeps getting traded though...