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Why the Cubs Will Contend for the Central in 2012....no seriously, ....really....


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16 replies to this topic

#16 cubsnivy56

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Posted 27 February 2012 - 08:25 PM

1) Doug Davis and the replacement pitchers go 5-31. Maholm, Wood, Volstad win at a .500 clip. Gain of 8 games.
2) Marmols blows 10 saves. Bosio helps Marmol cut that in half. Net 5 wins.
3) With very poor defensive play the Cubs lose 26 one run games. With a new attitude and an emphasis on defense and base running the Cubs improve by 20% in one run losses. Net another 5 wins.
71+8+5+5=89 wins. The Cardinals made the playoffs with 90 wins.
I think we have a chance to compete! Why not the Cubs?

#17 hardtop

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Posted 28 February 2012 - 01:53 PM

because you are forgetting that offense had to score runs to win games. on paper, our offensive production should drop significantly. You also limited your pitching comparison to replacement pitchers and didn't factor in Z who, though he had a rough year, is arguably better than his replacement. Though we can assume we wont have as many starting pitching injuries, we can assume some impactful injuries along the way. Lastly you need to factor in variables that are outside of the cubs control, like wainwright returning etc. I see your pluses and, with the exception of defense netting 5 wins, the others are border line reasonable erring on the side of optimistic. the bottom line is: there are minuses to consider as well. 89 wins is super unlikely and if its achieved, it will take a perfect alignment of the starts... basically the opposite of the curse. i like the positive thinking though.




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