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NL Central 2012 Predictions (Pt. 3 of 6) Cincinnati Reds
Posted 26 February 2012 - 08:30 AM
Their biggest question mark is their rotation.
-Johnny Cueto is coming off of the best season of his career with an ERA under 3 for the first time in his career (2.31).
- Mat Latos had a terrible season last year going 9-14 with a 3.47 ERA... But he was on the Padres and he will probably bounce back this year.
But this is where the questions about the Reds rotation begin to rise...
-Bronson Arroyo is coming off a down year and honestly he has never been a great pitcher, but I suppose he hasn't been terrible either. Last year he went 5-12 with an ERA of 5.07. And I think his age may be catching up with him. He may prove me wrong but I think he will continue to regress this season.
-Homer Bailey is coming off of the best season of his career... He had his lowest career ERA (4.43) and the most wins of his career (9). Bailey has been improving every year though, and he will probably improve this year too... Who knows maybe he will set a new career milestone and get his ERA under 4.
- And then you have Mike Leake, who I guess is a decent pitcher when he isn't out stealing t-shirts. (12-9 3.86 ERA)
So while the Reds rotation isn't bad, I'm just not sold on them being able to hold it together for a full season. Also Dusty Baker isn't exactly known for his ability to manage pitchers *COUGH* Mark Prior *COUGH* Kerry Wood *COUGH*
And as far as their lineup is concerned outside of Votto, Phillips, and Bruce I'm not impressed. I feel like Scott Rolen and newly added LF Ryan Ludwick are going to continue to age poorly, and Drew Stubbs will continue to have the worst BA for a leadoff hitter in the MLB. I am however interested to see how their rookie SS Zach Cozart will perform this season after he was called up last September and went .324 with 2HR and 3RBI in only 11 games.
So in the end could the Reds compete for the division? Yes
Do the Reds have the talent to compete for the division? I guess so
Will the Reds win the division? I don't think so.
I'm just not sold on the Reds, Dusty Baker, or Matt Latos for that matter. I think the Reds 2010 season was a fluke and last year was a return to normalcy. Maybe the Reds will prove me wrong, but right now I'm just not buying it.
( Next I'll be telling you how Ryan Braun ruined my prediction for the NL Central title)
Posted 26 February 2012 - 08:49 AM
Posted 26 February 2012 - 09:04 AM
That is true, I did leave out that the back end of the Reds Bullpen is ridiculous: Madsen, Marshall, and Chapman. And they did get Madsen, Latos, and Marshall for relatively cheap, BUT they did lose Alonso and I see that as a huge loss. I think Alonso is going to have a huge year for the Padres, and he could have had a huge impact in LF for the Reds.
I think Latos could be very, very good. They essentially added - without losing anyone critical to their team last year (Alonso doesn't count) - Latos, Sean Marshall, Ryan Madson (Cordero sucked). That's three huge additions to a team that was already on the verge of being quite good.
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