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Cubs vs. White Sox Prop Bets
Posted 27 February 2012 - 04:07 PM
Anyhow, I'm really struggling to come up with fun categories this year (especially those that I will have a chance to win!!). Heck, I'm having a hard time coming up with three batters, should I go with a Triple Crown for hitting!!! (I don't want to lose one of my three batters in a July trade, either!!)
So, I'm throwing this out to all you Cubs (and baseball) experts out there... Does anyone have any suggestions for Cubs / Sox prop bet categories this year?
Any suggestions will be appreciated!!!!
Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:07 AM
Two categories that we always have are the Triple Crown Batter and Pitcher categories...
Last year, the batting category was made up of HRs, SOs and AVG... with the tie breaker of RBIs... will probably keep the same... but with what batters? I'm thinking Soriano (gotta have him for the HRs), Castro (good for Avg and not bad for SOs)... and PROBABLY LaHair... but there's a possibility (okay SLIM possibility) that Soriano could be moved... and as much as the Cubs front office loves Rizzo, it wouldn't be surprising that LaHair could lose playing time - or his starting position to Rizzo. Or should I be thinking Stewart? Either of these possibilities could cripple me in this Triple Crown category. Does everyone agree that Soriano, Castro and LaHair are the way to go?
The pitching Triple Crown was made up of Ws, SOs and ERA... (tie breaker was entire staff's BBs) also will most likely go with the same sub-cats... Picking the three pitchers is probably almost a no-brainer... Garza, Dempster and I'm thinking Maholm. Of course here again, I think it's VERY likely that Garza may be gone at the trade deadline, which would pooch this category.
The regular season wins category is another staple that we have every year. Last year, it was Cubs+9 vs Sox, but this year I don't think I can negotiate any handicap points... it will probably have to be a "straight up" Cubs wins vs Sox wins... though I feel pretty confident that the Cubs will have more wins than the Sox. The tie breaker was regular season runs.
Another category that was fun last year (and I won), and will probably find it's way back into this year's bets is the Inter-league / Head-to-Head "Triple Crown"... in this category, we had Inter-League wins (not including the Cubs/Sox games) with 1 pt per win. (because there was an uneven number of games, we limited it to specific games). We then had 2 pts for each Cubs vs Sox win, and lastly, a .5 pt bonus for each VISITING Cubs vs Sox win because I think it hurts more when your team gets beat at home! Tie breaker was HRs during the Cubs / Sox games.
Other categories from last year that I probably won't use, but am mentioning as food for thought...
Quality Starts... with lowest bull pen ERA as the tie breaker
Dunn HRs vs Marmol Saves
Streak Triple Crown... longest winning streak (surprisingly Cubs won!), shortest losing streak (Sox won) and most consecutive games scoring 5 or more runs (Cubs won!)
Incidentally, I won the Cubs / Sox Prop bet last year....
I've enjoyed reading the suggestions so far...and they've triggered some ideas.... please keep 'em coming. (thanks in advance!)
Can't wait to get this season going!!!!
Posted 28 February 2012 - 09:31 AM
On the pitching side, if Garza signs an extension by Opening Day, then he's the obvious first choice. I'm not sure there is a good three. Maholm and T. Wood might be the safest to pair with Garza (from a performance / unlikely-to-be-traded perspective). If Garza is out, then you almost have to take the fifth start (Volstead, Wells, Samardzija). That would be Garza, Maholm, T. Wood, or Maholm, T. Wood, and (probably) Volstead.
If you could talk him into swapping Ks for K/9, though, then shove in Marmol.
Posted 28 February 2012 - 10:33 AM
I'm kind'a surprised you aren't including Dempster in the mix for the three pitchers. Well, KIND'A... I know in the past, I've tended to refer to him as DUmpster and last year, he pretty much lived up to that moniker. But still, I think I need to include Dempster... In MY mind, knowing very little about Travis Wood and Chris Volstad, I don't feel comfortable using either (let alone both).
As for the batters, I did what you suggested last year, tossing out the HR category in order to score better in the other two categories. I went with Ramirex, Byrd and Castro, and it worked well for me. I'll probably use the same strategy this year.
Posted 28 February 2012 - 12:21 PM
I'm kind'a surprised you aren't including Dempster in the mix for the three pitchers.
I think it's a given that Dempster will be traded in July. Unless the Cubs are somehow still in the thick of the division race, I think Dempster will let himself be dealt to a contender so he can chase a World Series. I don't expect the Cubs to be in the thick of the division race.
No matter how you look at Dempster, he's a short term asset. Theo has said repeatedly that he likes to turn short term assets into long term ones. With Garza, that could be a trade or an extension. With Dempster, it probably means a trade.
From a performance standpoint alone he should be on your list easily, but I left him off due to trade probability.
Posted 28 February 2012 - 12:34 PM
Y'know, the worst thing about trades as a Cubs fan... it sems like the players almost always thrive after they've left Chicago. I keep telling my friends that Z will have a Cy Young year this year, and look for Ramirez to be sporting the MVP jersey... Maybe this won't be the case with Theo at the helm... maybe he will be wiser when it comes to who he lets travel to other cities.. let's hope!
In the meantime, it's back to the drawing board... I guess picking the three pitchers isn't as easy as I was thinking it was going to be.... Although, I can try to select the categories so that they are more percentage-based rather than total-base, so that if a player gets traded or is injured, the impact isn't as great.
Posted 28 February 2012 - 02:38 PM
- Head to head W-L for Crosstown Classic
- Season W-L record
- Team SB - Sox lose Juan Pierre but De Aza should make up for most of his SB so this could be close - also make sure Camapana gets a roster spot before agreeing to this one
- Who is the better hitting SS in Chicago - Starlin vs Alexi in OPS+ or oWAR
- Team attendance - ha, might have to spot a million fans or so since no one goes to the cell
- Team with more all stars - Pauly is Sox annual best bet for AS and he will have hard time making AS game with Pujols, Fielder, Texiera, A Gon in the league at 1B
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