12 replies to this topic

[Ivy Walls]

At 71 wins the Cubs approach and system by their previous coaches had to be one of the worst, so if Cubs are going to improve. We can subtract the WAR of Ramirez, Marshall, Z, Colvin, Cashner (?), K Hill, Carpenter and the added WAR of DeJesus, Malhom, Stewart, Wood, Volstad, which I bet is almost a wash....(didn't have the time to do the work)

But then the intangibles: How much WAR is Sveum, moving Listach, adding Bosio, Quirk, McKay, plus the use of new data decision systems and an improved and focused Spring Training.

What about improved defense, starting pitching going deeper, better management of the bullpen and better approaches at the AB's.

I am saying staff is at least 2-3 wins over replacement, Defense and other game intangibles like better bullpen management and starting pitching...2-3 wins, this is 4-6 wins right there.

Bringing up better talent and improved play of Castro and Barney (hope platoon) this could result in 2 more wins....are the Cubs 79 wins?

[Fishin Phil]

My honest guess is about 75 wins, and I'd be happy with that.

[BlueHorizons]

I'm a little more optimistic than Phil... I'm thinking 80 wins.

The Cubs will definitely miss the power of A-Ram and Pena and their ability to drive in runs, but I think Sori will have a little better season, batting-wise. I also think some others will contribute more than last year - plus you have the new guys that have some power potential. Don't forget what a miserable beginning Ramirez had last year, too... we won't miss THAT!

Castro should reduce his error count... it would be hard NOT to, making 20% of the entire team's errors! With the increased focus on fundamentals, that should help him. I'm not expecting miracles, but a reduction could make a difference.

I don't look for Marmol to throw away (pun intended) 10 saves again this year. I don't know much about Bosio and how he will handle his pitchers, but I'm hopeful that SOMEONE will be able to straighten Marnol's mechanics. In a few snippets that I've read, positive strides are being made already.

The team as a whole will benefit from the stressed fundamentals and the overall attitude improvement. Maybe they won't be looking for ways to lose as often as they have in the past... a little confidence and swagger can work wonders.

[Dave H]

I think the fact that marmol won't be throwing a cutter fastball will make a big difference. I say 75 to 80 wins.

[Beer Baron]

I'd say 75 give or take sounds about right. Won't have to worry about whether or not to walk Pujols in the 9th this year, so that's a few more wins right there!

[King Jeff]

I do think having a completely different approach to things is good enough to offset the loss of Pena and Ramirez. But unless LaHair and/or Stewart have good years and the rotation is ok, I don't think that the Cubs are going to be close to .500. If there is a diamond in the rough or two in the rotation, if LaHair/Soriano/Stewart provide enough power and don't strike out too much, if Marmol can bounce back, if Jackson and Rizzo have an impact, if the rest of the bullpen holds up, if Garza is really an ace and Dempster isn't done. If a number of these "ifs" happen, the Cubs could win 80 or more games.

[Cubbie Blues]

Only 7 if statements? You really are an optimist aren't you? I would have pegged you for 9 or 10.

[SirCub]

I'm all for the optimism, and for sure, some of those "if"s will come true. But the fact of the matter is that there are a bunch of other "if"s of a more pessimistic variety, which I won't utter here for the sake of avoiding the dreaded "wammy," but they involve injuries, trades, and disappointing performances. Some of these are guaranteed to end up happening too.

[CSree]

I took the WAR of the players mention above for 2011 and found this:

2011 Cubs:
A. Ramirez- 3.6
C. Pena- 2.2
S. Marshall- 2.2
C. Zambrano- .7
T. Colvin- -.8
A. Cashner- .4
K. Hill- -.9
Total 7.7 wins

2012 Cubs:
D. DeJesus- .6
P. Maholm- 2.6
C. Volstad- .1
I. Stewart- -1.2
T. Wood- .3
B. LaHair- .2
Total 2.6 wins

According to these numbers the Cubs would actually lose 5.1 wins this coming year. As mentioned above though there are so many intangibles to take in to place. There is a whole new front office and players looking for fresh starts. I'm a huge fan of the University of Michigan and this past season their football team went from barely bowl eligable to Sugar Bowl champions with the same players. All that changed was philosophy and the coaching staff.

With that being said, even with the WAR numbers not in the Cubs favor, I'm going to stay optimstic and say the Cubs get 82 or more wins this season.

twitter: @ConnorSreenan22

[FFP]

It is probably hard to measure, but I think managment can create wins by being solid human resource managers. We often look to playing philosophies, like attitude towards small ball, or how pitching staffs should work hitters; but I think the importance of handing human beings is under-rated.

For example, could Big Z have been cajoled, coddled (or cudgeled) differently last year and been a stonger contributor to the team on the field. I think many in-clubhouse problems solved (or created by poor managment) go under-reported, and therefore fans' insights into the power of effective managment may be under-appreciated.

[Brett]

While I don't think there's any chance he matches ARam's 3.6 from last year, I'd bet decent money Stewart doesn't duplicate his -1.2 from last year.

[FFP]

Stewart's is an interesting case. I think they see something to indicate "bounceback." I enjoy trying to figure that out, and must admit that I'm stumped so far.
But they must also be looking to replace a couple of those wins by adding them from other places. There are dozens more opportunities here (esp. with A.Ram-money), but my guess is that those "places" will be easier to identify after the trade deadline this year.

[Brett]

Stewart's is an interesting case. I think they see something to indicate "bounceback." I enjoy trying to figure that out, and must admit that I'm stumped so far.
But they must also be looking to replace a couple of those wins by adding them from other places. There are dozens more opportunities here (esp. with A.Ram-money), but my guess is that those "places" will be easier to identify after the trade deadline this year.

I think this front office is going to try to take advantage of the way Wrigley has started to play very friendly to lefty hitters in recent years. They're going to stock up on lefty hitters, and lefty pitchers. Just a hunch.