11 replies to this topic

[Stinky Pete]

So I'm listening to XM and hearing all the stuff about Bryce Harper and whether or not he'll start with the big league club. I start to wonder, "What if he does make the team? What if he plays up to expectations (If that's even possible.) for six years?" He will be a free agent for his age 25 season. If everything falls into that and he plays at a level say around what Fielder did for his first six years give or take a few points here and there, what's the over/under on the AAV he would get? Six years down the road, a little inflation, hopefully better economy, could he push $40M?

[Dave]

If he lives up to the hype, he'll get more than A-Rod. I could see a team doing something insane, like more than 10 years at an AAV over $30 million. I doubt $40 million, that is just so much more than the current biggest mega-deal, I don't see that kind of jump being made. $400 million over 11 years, $450 million over 12 years wouldn't completely surprise me if his potential is realized. But just remember, back in 2003 we were preparing for when Mark Prior would win his 300th game and wondered if he would do it as a Cub or a Yankee.

[Luke]

It will be nearly impossible for Harper to live up to the hype, but if he does have Fielder-esque numbers when he hits free agency... wow.

We're talking about a guy who could realistically have 250 home runs by age 25, and, due to being an outfielder, still have seven or eight prime years to go. I don't know where to begin putting a value on him.

If he wanted it, he could probably get 15 years, $500 million. Whether or not he would want that long of a contract is up for debate (I doubt he would), but I think he could get it if he insisted on it. I'm guessing the Nationals will try to sign him to a five or six year deal that buys out his arbitration years in a couple of seasons, so he may not reach free agency at 25. If he's 28 or 29 when he gets there, then something in the 10 years, $350+million is probably on the table.

Can you imagine being the Nationals shoes, though? They could be put in a position where they have to shell out $55 million a season to keep Strasburg and Harper sometime in the next six or seven years. I'm not sure they can do it, which means at some point they'll have to trade one of those guys. That could get crazy in hurry.

[King Jeff]

Those numbers are really hard to fathom, but 6 years from now, they look pretty realistic. I wonder if Harper could become the first 500 million dollar athlete.

[MichiganGoat]

You know if Castro develops 25HR like power, improves his defense, and continues to get 200 hits a year over the next two years he could very well be searching for a 300M 10 year deal. He will be mid 20's (25/26 I think) when he is FA eligible. If he shows growth next year the Cubs need to seriously consider trying to tie up til he's close to 30.

[Brett]

I don't think he can win the Presidency in 2018.

[King Jeff]

You know if Castro develops 25HR like power, improves his defense, and continues to get 200 hits a year over the next two years he could very well be searching for a 300M 10 year deal. He will be mid 20's (25/26 I think) when he is FA eligible. If he shows growth next year the Cubs need to seriously consider trying to tie up til he's close to 30.

You're preaching to the choir here. I have been saying that Castro needs to get locked up this season for a while now. It would definitely be better for him to get a nice extension rather than let him roll through arbitration and rack up big pay days down the road. If his power continues to develop and his defense improves, he could be the best shortstop in baseball in a short amount of time.

[Stinky Pete]

I don't see Harper taking an extension. His cocky is "off the charts" and I would think he has been thinking about the monster payday he will get as a 25 year old FA.

[MichiganGoat]

You know if Castro develops 25HR like power, improves his defense, and continues to get 200 hits a year over the next two years he could very well be searching for a 300M 10 year deal. He will be mid 20's (25/26 I think) when he is FA eligible. If he shows growth next year the Cubs need to seriously consider trying to tie up til he's close to 30.

You're preaching to the choir here. I have been saying that Castro needs to get locked up this season for a while now. It would definitely be better for him to get a nice extension rather than let him roll through arbitration and rack up big pay days down the road. If his power continues to develop and his defense improves, he could be the best shortstop in baseball in a short amount of time.

I just want to see one more quality season. Then yes lock him up because his arb years will become pricey

[King Jeff]

You know if Castro develops 25HR like power, improves his defense, and continues to get 200 hits a year over the next two years he could very well be searching for a 300M 10 year deal. He will be mid 20's (25/26 I think) when he is FA eligible. If he shows growth next year the Cubs need to seriously consider trying to tie up til he's close to 30.

You're preaching to the choir here. I have been saying that Castro needs to get locked up this season for a while now. It would definitely be better for him to get a nice extension rather than let him roll through arbitration and rack up big pay days down the road. If his power continues to develop and his defense improves, he could be the best shortstop in baseball in a short amount of time.

I just want to see one more quality season. Then yes lock him up because his arb years will become pricey

I don't even need the whole season. If he comes out and hits like he has been and even improves his defense a little, he's worth an extension to me. I do think if it's going to come, it will be sometime late in the year or early in the offseason.

[Stinky Pete]

I don't think he can win the Presidency in 2018.

I think Harper is SO cocky that he believes he could.

[DocPeterWimsey]

I don't think he can win the Presidency in 2018.

I think Harper is SO cocky that he believes he could.

Well, then hopefully he's a better ballplayer than he is a Constitutional scholar!

Seriously, this kid probably is going to be great. Obviously, the Nats are pondering how quickly to bring him up in order to maximize possible years of team control. He's a great candidate for Super Two, so they probably won't benefit there.

And, of course, a big issue will be how the Nats are doing. They've got all the pieces to be a good team for several years. The Phils are aging, the Braves actually did a lot with smoke and mirrors last year (their "collapse" really was closer to playing a little under their peripherals for the first time all year), the Mets are a mess and the Marlins look spastic.

So, a couple of trips to the playoffs in that time could really build up a strong following and help up the Nats' revenues. (Their park is wonderful: I go there for every Cubs game each year and whenever the Sox come to town.)

As for his cockiness, well, remember that this kid gets an unreal amount of media attention. It could well simply be his coping mechanism.