37 replies to this topic

[Ralph]

Watching just a couple of Jackson's at bats this Spring (and other video clips), it seems as though he is the real deal. I love his approach, and it seems as though he's becoming a little more patient at the plate. He makes solid contact, will hit for average, plays great outfield, has a good arm, is fast as hell, and will hit for power on occasion. He is actually a hyped Cubs prospect that I really think looks as good as the hype (Corey Patterson and Felix Pie never did it for me). Now, Rizzo can rip the cover off the ball and hits for crazy power... but can he make solid enough contact at the major league level to be an all-star first baseman? Does Jackson have more upside, or does Rizzo have more upside solely based on his power and above average defense? When Rizzo hits 30 HR in 2013, I will probably eat my words, but I also hope that Jackson is raking right along side him in the lineup.

[Crockett]

Yeah...you're quite a ways off, actually. Jackson will struggle to put up a .250/.330/.430 line in the MLB, I believe. His hit tool is significantly below average and he struck out at a 30% clip in the minors last year. Only Mark Reynolds and Drew Stubbs struck out that much in the MLB last year (of qualifiers). So, I think his offensive ceiling is Adam Dunn with 15 HR power and 25 steal speed. Definitely not a star.

Funny you question Rizzo's hit tool, while it is not in the Castro/Baez realm, it certainly is average-to-above average. He's on record saying his approach was horrible during his call up last year and he was trying to mash everything.

I think Jackson has WAY more Tyler Colvin in him than anyone else, unfortunately...whereas Rizzo has a lot of a Paul Konerko type career in him.

[NormB]

I pretty much agree with Crockett on B.Jackson (although I think more 20/20 than 15/25) AND Rizzo, but I am still more excited about Jackson. A 250/330/430 line with 20/20 from a centerfielder is pretty darn good.

[Luke]

Tyler Colvin had a career minor league OBP of .315 and never posted one higher than .336 at any level.

Brett Jackson has a career minor league OBP of .393 and never posted one lower than .366 at any level.

I don't see much grounds for comparing the two. Jackson will strike out and will hit for power, but that's where the comparison stops. Jackson should also get on base at something north of a .350 clip, and that should give him a good career as a regular outfielder regardless of his batting average. Colvin, on the other hand, is a platoon fourth or fifth outfielder.

Edit: I suppose I can get behind the Adam Dunn comparison, so long as we are talking about the 2002 edition and not the 2011 disaster.

[King Jeff]

Rizzo has great potential and probably has the higher ceiling, but I am more of a fan of Brett Jackson's style of play and skill set. Rizzo is probably going to be a great hitter, but Jackson has more tools that catch your eye. Either way, the Cubs have two position prospects who are almost ready to contribute to the major league team, something that has been unheard of in regards to the Cubs for a long time.

[Crockett]

I pretty much agree with Crockett on B.Jackson (although I think more 20/20 than 15/25) AND Rizzo, but I am still more excited about Jackson. A 250/330/430 line with 20/20 from a centerfielder is pretty darn good.

A .760 OPS puts him in John Jay/Peter Bourjos territory. Not all that great. My point about Colvin was regarding the lack of contact...Colvin had the additional bugaboo of being terribly impatient, a trait that Jackson doesn't have, thankfully.

Jackson will still struggle to hit .250 in the ML and his strikeouts will pile up. Adam Dunn ONLY has value in his OBP and power and if his power were drastically less (think Jackson), pitchers won't feel the need to nibble so much. I'm not saying that Jackson won't be an average regular...I just think too many Cub fans feel like he's going to be 2003 Corey Patterson but better.

[Luke]

Let's say the line on Jackson's career All-Star appearances is 2.5. Are you taking the over or the under?

[Crockett]

Let's say the line on Jackson's career All-Star appearances is 2.5. Are you taking the over or the under?

Considering he'll likely never be the Cubs lone representative with Castro and Rizzo around, I'll take the under.

[Brett]

Let's say the line on Jackson's career All-Star appearances is 2.5. Are you taking the over or the under?

I'd take the under, and I very much like Jackson.

I see a quality Major Leaguer who can play good defense at a premium position, but who will probably strike out too much to be more than that. That's pretty valuable for a cost-controlled player.

[Luke]

I think he'll have a shot to make it a time or two during career years, but that'd be about it. Two would be as high as I would go right now.

[NormB]

I pretty much agree with Crockett on B.Jackson (although I think more 20/20 than 15/25) AND Rizzo, but I am still more excited about Jackson. A 250/330/430 line with 20/20 from a centerfielder is pretty darn good.

A .760 OPS puts him in John Jay/Peter Bourjos territory. Not all that great. My point about Colvin was regarding the lack of contact...Colvin had the additional bugaboo of being terribly impatient, a trait that Jackson doesn't have, thankfully.

Jackson will still struggle to hit .250 in the ML and his strikeouts will pile up. Adam Dunn ONLY has value in his OBP and power and if his power were drastically less (think Jackson), pitchers won't feel the need to nibble so much. I'm not saying that Jackson won't be an average regular...I just think too many Cub fans feel like he's going to be 2003 Corey Patterson but better.

Bourjos had a 4.3 WAR last year...I'd be quite happy with Jackson if he could be a 4 WAR player.
As for 2.5 all star games, under.

[Crockett]

I pretty much agree with Crockett on B.Jackson (although I think more 20/20 than 15/25) AND Rizzo, but I am still more excited about Jackson. A 250/330/430 line with 20/20 from a centerfielder is pretty darn good.

A .760 OPS puts him in John Jay/Peter Bourjos territory. Not all that great. My point about Colvin was regarding the lack of contact...Colvin had the additional bugaboo of being terribly impatient, a trait that Jackson doesn't have, thankfully.

Jackson will still struggle to hit .250 in the ML and his strikeouts will pile up. Adam Dunn ONLY has value in his OBP and power and if his power were drastically less (think Jackson), pitchers won't feel the need to nibble so much. I'm not saying that Jackson won't be an average regular...I just think too many Cub fans feel like he's going to be 2003 Corey Patterson but better.

Bourjos had a 4.3 WAR last year...I'd be quite happy with Jackson if he could be a 4 WAR player.
As for 2.5 all star games, under.

Bourjos is also the consensus best defensive CF in baseball. Jackson isn't going to bring that level of defense, but is certainly at least in the Colby Rasmus-type range.

[NormB]

UZR had Bourjos 5th in centerfield defense.
But enough nitpicking, the point is, BJ will be a valauble player even if he is just a 250/330/430 type hitter.

[Ralph]

As long as they're not the next Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith duo, I'll be happy. I thought that Jackson had been overrated as a prospect in the past couple years due to the strike out totals, but he looks like an exciting prospect right now. You never know with prospects... that goes for both of them. I hope Rizzo is a perennial all-star for years to come.

[Ralph]

I really hope Jackson is more than a .250 type guy. I hope he's more in the range of .280 to .300 on a consistent basis I guess it would surprise a lot of people if that happens. Imagine .285 with 20 homers, 30 steals, and great all around defensive skills... exciting player. Though if Rizzo end up being a .285 guy with 35 homers, 100 rbi, and great defensive skills, that's pretty damn exciting too.