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Why am I more psyched about Jackson than Rizzo?


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#31 SirCub

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 06:09 AM

In sum, maybe if you want to look at a guys pitch selection, you could do (Total K's / PA's) and if you wanted to assess his "hit tool" you could look at (Swinging K's / AB's).

#32 Brett

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 07:03 AM

In sum, maybe if you want to look at a guys pitch selection, you could do (Total K's / PA's) and if you wanted to assess his "hit tool" you could look at (Swinging K's / AB's).

Yeah, but what counts as a "Swinging K"? Is two of three strikes enough? Just the final strike? What if he swings and misses on two, fouls off 10, and takes the third strike looking?

#33 SirCub

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 07:15 AM


In sum, maybe if you want to look at a guys pitch selection, you could do (Total K's / PA's) and if you wanted to assess his "hit tool" you could look at (Swinging K's / AB's).

Yeah, but what counts as a "Swinging K"? Is two of three strikes enough? Just the final strike? What if he swings and misses on two, fouls off 10, and takes the third strike looking?

I'd say the final strike. Basically, by taking Swinging K's / AB's, you are limiting your sample size to pitches where the hitter is trying, above all else, to make contact. Foul balls add a little bit of error in there, but not too much, I would think.

#34 bdlugz

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 08:39 AM

There are advanced stats that show a lot of information, like % of pitches swung at inside and outside the strike zone, overall swing %, contact % at pitches inside and outside the strike zone, overall contact %, swinging strike %, and more. There is an entire fangraphs article on the idea behind plate discipline and advanced metrics for anyone that is interested.

There is a reason you cannot use something like K% to determine a hit tool - it's one very small piece of the puzzle. I still stand by my post that using AB instead of PA for K% is the only logical choice.

If you want to dive deeper into someones tendencies of swinging and missing, contact % and more, you don't do that by removing walks from the equation, you do that by looking at stats that directly address those questions.

http://www.fangraphs...ng-z-swing-etc/

#35 Crockett

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 12:01 PM

I definitely think you CAN judge a hit tool by K% and K/BB ratios, etc. Think Mark Grace...very high BB%, lots of deep counts, VERY LOW strikeouts...because he had an exceptional hit tool. There are plenty of examples of this.

#36 NormB

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 01:08 PM

You can also have low walk totals and have a great hit tool; Ichiro, Vlad....
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Those fangraphs "% out of zone" and "% in the zone", aren't very reliable, from what I've read. Too much of it is subjective to be reliable.

#37 Crockett

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 01:16 PM

You can also have low walk totals and have a great hit tool; Ichiro, Vlad....
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This is true as well. Starlin might eventually fall into this category.

#38 wvcubsfan

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 04:30 PM

Bleacher Nation, where else can you find a bunch of guys discussing another man's hit tool.




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