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Umpire Bias


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21 replies to this topic

#1 T C

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 07:34 PM

This nifty little table has used Pitch f/x and over 2 million pitches worth of data to show how umpires dictate how the game is played

Posted Image

Those numbers reinforce what a lot of us already think, but like, WOW, look at those 0-2 and 3-0 numbers. OVER 40% of in-the-zone calls are missed on 0-2, but thats not even as crazy as 15% of dead center strikes being missed. Holy cow

#2 King Jeff

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 07:58 PM

I always thought that they should go to robot umpires with player customized infrared strike zones.

#3 Oswego Chris

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 08:25 PM

Now bear with me here...one thing that really, really bothers me about umpires is when they do their signature emphatic calls for strike three...you know when they "punch guys out"...I don't think they should be able to do that unless they are just as emphatic when they make their ball four calls...because you can't tell me that when they get a chance to do those "punch-outs" their isn't just a little bit of attention grabbing that flashes through their minds....

do I just say "nope, take your base"? or do I do some type of half karate-like grunt/chop type thing and yell?

#4 T C

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 09:08 PM

Now bear with me here...one thing that really, really bothers me about umpires is when they do their signature emphatic calls for strike three...you know when they "punch guys out"...I don't think they should be able to do that unless they are just as emphatic when they make their ball four calls...because you can't tell me that when they get a chance to do those "punch-outs" their isn't just a little bit of attention grabbing that flashes through their minds....

do I just say "nope, take your base"? or do I do some type of half karate-like grunt/chop type thing and yell?


Proposal: New umpire walk signal:

Repeated pelvic thrusts in the direction of first base whilst staring back at the pitcher

#5 King Jeff

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 09:30 PM


Now bear with me here...one thing that really, really bothers me about umpires is when they do their signature emphatic calls for strike three...you know when they "punch guys out"...I don't think they should be able to do that unless they are just as emphatic when they make their ball four calls...because you can't tell me that when they get a chance to do those "punch-outs" their isn't just a little bit of attention grabbing that flashes through their minds....

do I just say "nope, take your base"? or do I do some type of half karate-like grunt/chop type thing and yell?


Proposal: New umpire walk signal:

Repeated pelvic thrusts in the direction of first base whilst staring back at the pitcher

It might cut down on the walks.

#6 Spencer

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 11:53 PM

How about 18% of 3-0 pitches that are way outside the strike zone being missed?

#7 King Jeff

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 06:11 AM

How about 18% of 3-0 pitches that are way outside the strike zone being missed?

That's great. It means that on 3-0 counts there is a 15% chance of the umpire sneezing on the next pitch and accidentally calling a strike when we get a Mitch Williams slider to the outside of the batters box.

#8 hansman1982

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 10:21 AM

It would be especially interested to correllate these stats to the batter and pitcher's WAR. Is it the ARod's and Pujols' of the world that make up a majority of the missed 0-2 strikes, is it the Halladay's and Maddux's of the world that are getting the 3-0 strike calls?

#9 Spencer

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 12:05 PM

It would be especially interested to correllate these stats to the batter and pitcher's WAR. Is it the ARod's and Pujols' of the world that make up a majority of the missed 0-2 strikes, is it the Halladay's and Maddux's of the world that are getting the 3-0 strike calls?


This is a good point; I feel like big name pitchers always get the borderline calls.

#10 Brett

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 01:31 PM

That's awesome, TC. Where did you find that?

#11 T C

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 01:45 PM

That's awesome, TC. Where did you find that?


I saw it posted on /r/baseball yesterday. The guy who posted it there says its from a book called "Scorecasting", which is a sports-themed "freakonomics"-style book.

#12 SirCub

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 02:08 PM

It makes me so angry cause it's so true!

#13 hansman1982

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 06:57 AM

It would be especially interested to correllate these stats to the batter and pitcher's WAR. Is it the ARod's and Pujols' of the world that make up a majority of the missed 0-2 strikes, is it the Halladay's and Maddux's of the world that are getting the 3-0 strike calls?

This is a good point; I feel like big name pitchers always get the borderline calls.


It does seem so and it could easily be that 20 guys a year, out of the thousand that are involved in MLB, are skewing the numbers heavily in one direction.

Also, maybe I am just dumb, but what is the difference between a 2 strike count and an 0-2 count?

#14 SirCub

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 08:54 AM

It would be especially interested to correllate these stats to the batter and pitcher's WAR. Is it the ARod's and Pujols' of the world that make up a majority of the missed 0-2 strikes, is it the Halladay's and Maddux's of the world that are getting the 3-0 strike calls?

This is a good point; I feel like big name pitchers always get the borderline calls.


It does seem so and it could easily be that 20 guys a year, out of the thousand that are involved in MLB, are skewing the numbers heavily in one direction.

Also, maybe I am just dumb, but what is the difference between a 2 strike count and an 0-2 count?

I would assume a two-strike count would be any and all of 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2; while an 0-2 count is like, just an 0-2 count.

#15 T C

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 01:23 PM


It would be especially interested to correllate these stats to the batter and pitcher's WAR. Is it the ARod's and Pujols' of the world that make up a majority of the missed 0-2 strikes, is it the Halladay's and Maddux's of the world that are getting the 3-0 strike calls?

This is a good point; I feel like big name pitchers always get the borderline calls.


It does seem so and it could easily be that 20 guys a year, out of the thousand that are involved in MLB, are skewing the numbers heavily in one direction.

Also, maybe I am just dumb, but what is the difference between a 2 strike count and an 0-2 count?

I would assume a two-strike count would be any and all of 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, and 3-2; while an 0-2 count is like, just an 0-2 count.


That's a bingo




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